January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Can someone smarter than me explain why the transfer to the coast isn’t happening sooner like we see in our HECS? You have blocking/50-50 low plus a strong arctic high. Doesn’t add up to me.

 Because the wave is phasing far west of our typical ideal for a coastal storms. 

[TSSN+]

Anyone got individual eps members? 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Need to see individual members to know why it dropped. Possible more suppressed solutions also returned. 

Tallied up the amount of storms that are too north, too south, and misses (under 6in across NOVA). 

0z

5 Maxes to the south 

14 Maxes to the North

3 Misses North; 1 Miss South

12z

5 Maxes to the South

15 Maxes to the North

9 Misses North

Unfortunately the data pretty strongly reflects the assumption that the probability decrease is caused by mixing concerns. Lets hope for future runs that 9 misses north comes down. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

4 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Holy wow - I cannot believe this map because I've never seen temperatures like that around here. In my neck of the woods the lowest I've ever seen the temperature was 1 degree. 

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, snowcane33 said:

Accumulating two inches of freezing rain is considered an extreme and catastrophic weather event. While only half an inch is needed to "cripple" a region, two inches causes widespread, long-duration destruction to infrastructure and natural environments. 

The specific damages caused by this level of icing include:

• Catastrophic Power Grid Failure: Just 0.5 inches of ice can add 500 pounds of weight to a single span of power lines, which is 30 times their normal weight. At two inches, the weight is immense enough to snap not just lines, but heavy-duty utility poles and massive transmission towers. Power outages in these scenarios often last for weeks.
• Severe Tree Destruction: Two inches of ice can increase the weight of tree branches by up to 30 times. This leads to the failure of even healthy, large trees, which fall onto homes, vehicles, and roads, further damaging property and blocking emergency access.
• Structural Damage to Buildings:
  • Roof Collapse: The sheer weight of two inches of ice—especially if it accumulates on top of existing snow—can exceed the load-bearing capacity of many residential and commercial roofs, leading to collapse.
  • Ice Dams: Heavy icing causes ice dams that force water under shingles, leading to severe interior water damage, sagging gutters, and ruined insulation.

Thanks, Gemini.

[csnavywx]

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Central Va/RVA also could have real issues with freezing rain too no? 

Yeah, though the closer you are to the mountains, the deeper the cold wedge is likely to be. Once we get close enough I can start posting some BUFKIT profiles for folks that want them.

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m genuinely concerned now for your area. This could be really ugly. I know you know the at anytime temp is <28° during ZR, accretion processes are maximized. <25° is usually when you see the greatest ice storms occur and it could very well be that way over your area back into VA. 

Hate to ask a question fully motivated out of my personal interest but where do you think the northern extent of this ice storm (.25+) probabilities lie? Personally I can handle synoptic analysis but thermals hurts my brain. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Do one of you fine folks have the time to please post the last 3 or 4 eps snowall means? I am trying to do a comparison. Thank you.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, though the closer you are to the mountains, the deeper the cold wedge is likely to be. Once we get close enough I can start posting some BUFKIT profiles for folks that want them.

Does the old BUFKIT site still work. I used to have it bookmarked on an old laptop. But cant find it anymore. 

[pazzo83]

9 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

i'm suspicious that DC will test its all time low temp reading (-15F) that has stood since the late 19th Century.

[Buddy1987]

10 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

You aren't joking. Surface temps in the low-mid 20s with 0.1"/hr+ accretion rates will be a big problem in a hurry.

 

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m genuinely concerned now for your area. This could be really ugly. I know you know the at anytime temp is <28° during ZR, accretion processes are maximized. <25° is usually when you see the greatest ice storms occur and it could very well be that way over your area back into VA. 

When I was still in my teenager years and living with my parents in NW CT we had an ice storm where the temp stayed in the low teens throughout. It was absolute devastating. Easy 0.75''-1.25'' area wide. Trees going down all night long in the woods sounding like a shot gun going off. One came down, wiped out our deck and pool. It was pretty terrifying. 

[das]

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Correct. It's an insane run temp wise.

The highest 2m temp at Gaithersburg once the cold rushes in Friday thru Thursday 05 Feb 2026 is 25ºF

[StormyClearweather]

Now THIS is a crazy temp map

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 Because the wave is phasing far west of our typical ideal for a coastal storms. 

I mean its frankly a ridiculous setup. In any other world where we have a -2.5 sigma 500mb anomaly centered over north/south Dakota we would be looking at a cutter that puts us in a 70 degree warm sector. Instead we are still managing to get a snowstorm out of it!

[mappy]

15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It’s not hyperbole when I say this will be one of the extreme cold plunges we have seen since 2014 in these parts. With snow and ice on the ground will make travel issues for days on end. I’m bullish and think some places will see 18-22” of snow somewhere out of this, it’s just a matter of where. I expect it to occur in Northern MD by your hood across the M/D. Someone is going to get shelled. 

Given temps this week with 2 inch snow cover, can only imagine how cold it will be up here next week 

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Does the old BUFKIT site still work. I used to have it bookmarked on an old laptop. But cant find it anymore. 

The profiles are still active on IA state's Bufkit Warehouse and PSU website.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Do one of you fine folks have the time to please post the last 3 or 4 eps snowall means? I am trying to do a comparison. Thank you.

Sure. 12z Yesterday

18z

0z (Biggest shift)

6z

12z

 

[clskinsfan]

NWS Wakefield update from a couple of hours ago:

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Interestingly NWS still has their forecast show an all snow storm for Cvill

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Sure. 12z Yesterday

18z

0z (Biggest shift)

6z

12z

 

That's still a lot of snow, 6 inch line way down south of us.  It's gonna snow!

[stormy]

EPS gives me 11 inches and .39" freezing rain. I find that hard to believe since the warmest that I get at 850 is 28.  700 is not available.

The ECM AI ens. gives me 14 inches of snow.  ZR not available on AI.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

EPS gives me 11 inches and .39" freezing rain. I find that hard to believe since the warmest that I get at 850 is 28.  700 is not available.

The ECM AI ens. gives me 14 inches of snow.  ZR not available on AI.

Really need to see soundings to see where that warm nose is if you cant see the 700 maps. 

[Kevin Reilly]

38 minutes ago, bncho said:

For this winter storm, they called the North shift perfectly. 48 hours ago, while we were sweating suppression they were thinking DC and Balt would mix.

I mean I get it but even if you do not even look at Synoptics climatologically thinking you 60-90% of the time mix in these situations.  Check all past storms like this however it does vary north to south or southeast to northwest depending on the cold high up north or phasing or not.  I get the suppression thing but remember we are in a La Niña after all and heights typically rise along the southeast coast southwestern Atlantic.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

That's still a lot of snow, 6 inch line way down south of us.  It's gonna snow!

Pretty consistent outside of exact details it’s gonna snow!  Who’s got that gif?

[mappy]

@stormtracker @WxUSAF new thread before 18z?

[WxUSAF]

Just now, mappy said:

@stormtracker @WxUSAF new thread before 18z?

Sure

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

A couple pages back PSU gave the explanation to me. The 50/50 moving out quickly because of not ideal blocking. 

This but also the trough amplifies and phases pretty far west...combo of those two things causes a strong southerly mid level flow as the trough approaches which facilitates the surface (but more importantly the mid level) low tracking a bit further NW than we want on some of the guidance.  

[WxUSAF]

Still think 8-14” is probably the most reasonable range for now for the metro corridor. 

[BlizzardNole]

18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

For what it's worth DT agrees with you. He's saying 20+ for the Shen Valley and Western Md. Possibly pushing east of the Blue Ridge.

Really worried about the temps over the next couple weeks. Lots of retired folks out this way that are going to need help digging out. 

He talks about the dangerous ice storm risk for VA with temps in the upper teen/low 20s with well over an inch of accretion followed by single digits early next week.  Very serious esp for people without generators.  I have family in St Marys and Calvert and am starting to worry about them.

[wxmeddler]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Really need to see soundings to see where that warm nose is if you cant see the 700 maps. 

Because it's not a dynamical model, it doesn't have the levels to create soundings. I don't know if it even has 700mb output.