January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[pazzo83]

would a primary going west of us like that give us the risk of the dreaded dry slot?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Did GEFS get posted? Still in a range where it has utility.

Not much change 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean something this big is probably a one and done, any further snow events will be smaller.

We tend to get a lot of our snow in epic runs that happen sporadically once in a blue moon.  This pattern has that kind of upside potential.  I wouldn't put any qualifiers on it.  Sure we need to get some luck, it could go sideways if things don't fall our way...(but by sideways I mean we just get some snow not epic totals) but this is the type of pattern we could score multiple big hits.  

[LP08]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Gun to head, if I had to make a public forecast....I'd do 8-14 ending as sleet.    Actually I'd be too scared and wimp out to 8 to 12, but part of me would want to go 10-15 so bad

Told my friend group 6-10".  Thought about going the CWG route and adding some boom/bust percentages...

[SnowenOutThere]

So hows our 18-24 inches of cold powder looking with no mixing issues?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

8-14” is exactly what I’ve been thinking this morning 

Glad I'm on the same page with you all...I've started telling folks 8-12

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

So hows our 18-24 inches of cold powder looking with no mixing issues?

Not bad if you believe the gfs lol 

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

So hows our 18-24 inches of cold powder looking with no mixing issues?

At no time was this even close to the model consensus. 

[CAPE]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Oh...so you just look at the pictures instead of reading.  

I find the h5 picture to be fascinating. Love me some vorticity.

[RevWarReenactor]

If PSU says the worst case is a 6 inch front end thump followed by sleet, ice, back to snow, and cold. Thats a pretty good day. Maybe not a historical storm, but still something to be excited about.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

At no time was this even close to the model consensus. 

Read my synoptic post from yesterday. It literally was the consensus of all models excluding suppression worries. 

[MN Transplant]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did GEFS get posted? Still in a range where it has utility.

Not quite as good

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS is not amped....

[aldie 22]

I told my daughter this morning who lives in Leesburg that i think 8-12" plus some sleet and cold temps are most likely. Feeling pretty good about that call right now. For my backyard i am thinking 6-10" no sleet to speak of but a really quick dryslot cutting off the moisture faster than others to my east

[Wetbulbs88]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So hows our 18-24 inches of cold powder looking with no mixing issues?

Literally one run of the UK and CMC and you're panicking? And it's also a pretty great solution themselves? 

Relax. 

[CAPE]

I'm good with 12z GEFS precip and snowfall picture.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not quite as good

Mean got diluted between some suppressed members somehow getting added back into the mix and the continued amped camp. As it shows we still end up in the middle but a little less inspiring. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not quite as good

Drier. Less phasing? Doesn’t look north based on that.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not quite as good

Odd change to the mean... didn't trend north or south...just "less"...but we are in the midst of an amplification trend across all guidance...so I find it hard to believe the decrease is due to a less amplified system.  I would have to look under the hood but that change is just odd given when else we've seen from 12z data.  

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Literally one run of the UK and CMC and you're panicking? And it's also a pretty great solution themselves? 

Relax. 

? Euro shows me getting a foot of snow and .4 of freezing rain which would be awesome in its own right but horrific from a management perspective. That combined with the UK and CMC switching all of us over to ice seems to be a pretty strong signal for a mix... and we still have 3-4 days of possible shifts and we are relying on confluence not being weaker than modeled.

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Mean got diluted between some suppressed members somehow getting added back into the mix and the continued amped camp. As it shows we still end up in the middle but a little less inspiring. 

From above, it looks like almost half of the members have 6" or less.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS is not amped....

lol gfs still trying to leave the Baja low behind on ens. 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

would a primary going west of us like that give us the risk of the dreaded dry slot?

Yes that is a possibility in a setup like this at our latitude.

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS is not amped....

P9/P25 skewing the mean pretty immensely. P6 for that matter too.

[AmericanWxFreak]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS is not amped....

That is uh, not super inspiring...

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Told my friend group 6-10".  Thought about going the CWG route and adding some boom/bust percentages...

I'd instantly disown you and consider a full ban.

I HATE that with a passion.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

That is uh, not super inspiring...

It’s the gfs bro. It’s not that great. Euro members pretty much had no south misses. 

[CAPE]

That's a good track on the mean. Doesn't erode the cold from flow off the ocean.

[Scraff]

Ok I’ll be driving during the Euro. Cant wait to see the comments when I park. However, if anyone can text me with updates, please do so. Would be greatly appreciated. # is 936-1212. Thanks! 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'd instantly disown you and consider a full ban.

I HATE that with a passion.

I can see it now.......Forecast 8-12 30%, Boom 10-15 20%, Bust 4-8 30%, Sadness 20%