January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[brooklynwx99]

the WAA is so insane that this is really hard to fuck up for MD/DC. the UKMET drives the low to Buffalo and you still get 12" of snow

[ravensrule]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

It was a really big jump. I mean...we legit don't know if that's the northern extent or not--it's just Tuesday.

Agreed, what’s to say it doesn’t jump back the other way tomorrow. At 12Z you thought the storm was gone if you saw the GFS, look where it is now. 

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Like the CMC, Ukie begins to change to sleet around midday over DCA, but not much precip after that. Almost like ending as a period of sleet that lightens up quickly by mid/late afternoon. Still a nice front end THUMP before that. Considering how intense that front end WAA snow is...I'll take it. Notice the low in WV by 18Z Sun. Yeah, not the kind of Miller B you want, but again, this would be one hell of an acceptable front-end thump. 

Verbatim its much better than a supressed weak sauce run. The trend is concerning however.

[MDsnowPRO]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Unfortunately, routine here.  Gonna wait for the Euro to see if this jump/trend is real

Been around long enough to know the drill, still pretty tiring. 

[WxMan1]

Just now, Amped said:

Verbatim its much better than a supressed weak sauce run. The trend is concerning however.

I guess Amped is saying you don't want it too amped. 

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Like the CMC, Ukie begins to change to sleet around midday over DCA, but not much precip after that. Almost like ending as a period of sleet that lightens up quickly by mid/late afternoon. Still a nice front end THUMP before that. Considering how intense that front end WAA snow is...I'll take it. Notice the low in WV by 18Z Sun. Yeah, not the kind of Miller B you want, but again, this would be one hell of an acceptable front-end thump. 

This is roughly the QPF that falls prior to the changeover in and around DC.

Pretty intense but if the trend continues....

.

[Steve25]

1 minute ago, AGardiner87 said:

Y’all cliff jump more than the SE thread it’s ridiculous!

I can only imagine how bad it is in there right about now

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said:

Y’all cliff jump more than the SE thread it’s ridiculous!

how is mitch west doing?

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

-it's just Tuesday night.

Wednesday morning if we're being real 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wednesday morning if we're being real 

I knew somebody was gonna do that, lol

[pazzo83]

it's currently 05:04 UTC, so yeah.

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Agreed, what’s to say it doesn’t jump back the other way tomorrow. At 12Z you thought the storm was gone if you saw the GFS, look where it is now. 

Agree. Why I said I'll give it two more runs to see if this is a blip or an actual trend. 

[ravensrule]

The Euro is about to calm all our nerves. Let’s light up a fatty while we wait. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

We await the King

[DC2Winston]

I can only imagine how bad it is in there right about now

Only thing worse than bad is crickets. Silence is deafening down here…


.

[Jebman]

50 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Incredible GooFuS run! Is it wrong that I wanted 1 more full panel to keep it rolling after 132? How can we slow it down so we can make a run to BECSville?

We ARE probably gonna make a run at BECSville.

[TowsonWeather]

18 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Not cliff jumping, just stating facts. You start pushing lows into WV then 80% or more of this forum is waving bye-bye to large snow numbers and hello to 2,3,4 inches of front end then 1-2 inches of sleet or quarter inch of freezing rain, then MAYBE a switch back to snow and another 3-5 inches. Again, only a couple models showing this but a bad, bad trend is starting to rear up. 

80% huh?

[Maestrobjwa]

From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well in regards to the Ukie solution:

19 minutes ago, TriPol said:

A primary that survives all the way to Erie in this pattern is structurally suspect. It requires the cold dome to retreat faster than the synoptic setup allows. The 1032 mb high to the west is not a paper tiger. It is feeding low-level cold and keeping the boundary pinned south and east. Primaries do not just waltz through that without consequences.

Ukie keeping it mostly snow in NYC while dragging the primary to Erie is internally inconsistent. If the primary truly gets that far north and west, the low-level flow into NYC backs too much from the south. You do not get to keep a clean snow profile and a strong inland primary at the same time. One of those has to give.

What usually gives is the primary.

In reality, with this kind of trough geometry and thickness field, the inland low weakens earlier. Energy transfers near the coast. The inland center becomes a bag of isobars and stops mattering. That is exactly the evolution the GFS, Euro, and most ensembles favor in similar regimes.

Ukie has a known bias here. It over-amplifies inland primaries in cold-dominant patterns, especially at this lead time. It often delays or underplays the transfer, then corrects late when the coastal baroclinic zone asserts itself. La la land is not an unfair description.

 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well in regards to the Ukie solution:

 

Everyone knows and no one knows.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well in regards to the Ukie solution:

 

Close the panic room please

[Ji]

im already looking ahead to our next blizzard

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

[stormtracker]

Euro has begun.   Here's to one more good time before bed

[Jebman]

Let's just relax and have a look at the other models.

Look, it's only a blip.

We got this.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

im already looking ahead to our next blizzard

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

Actually stays too far east for you or me verbatim. But we have a couple of minutes before it's a threat.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

im already looking ahead to our next blizzard

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

Wrong thread

[Weather Will]

WB 3Z NBM

[bncho]

Euro AI slight shift north, but absolutely ZERO worries mixing!

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO AI looks great.

[Thrasher Fan]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Huh? They also don’t want it to move north so think it’s wrong lol

https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/2013808206854709486?s=20

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO AI looks great.

Euro AIFS has been remarkably consistent through this system so far... If it verifies, it might jump to my favorite model