MDsnowPRO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Unfortunately, routine here. Gonna wait for the Euro to see if this jump/trend is real Been around long enough to know the drill, still pretty tiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Amped said: Verbatim its much better than a supressed weak sauce run. The trend is concerning however. I guess Amped is saying you don't want it too amped. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Like the CMC, Ukie begins to change to sleet around midday over DCA, but not much precip after that. Almost like ending as a period of sleet that lightens up quickly by mid/late afternoon. Still a nice front end THUMP before that. Considering how intense that front end WAA snow is...I'll take it. Notice the low in WV by 18Z Sun. Yeah, not the kind of Miller B you want, but again, this would be one hell of an acceptable front-end thump. This is roughly the QPF that falls prior to the changeover in and around DC. Pretty intense but if the trend continues.... . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, AGardiner87 said: Y’all cliff jump more than the SE thread it’s ridiculous! I can only imagine how bad it is in there right about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said: Y’all cliff jump more than the SE thread it’s ridiculous! how is mitch west doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: -it's just Tuesday night. Wednesday morning if we're being real 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Wednesday morning if we're being real I knew somebody was gonna do that, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 it's currently 05:04 UTC, so yeah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Agreed, what’s to say it doesn’t jump back the other way tomorrow. At 12Z you thought the storm was gone if you saw the GFS, look where it is now. Agree. Why I said I'll give it two more runs to see if this is a blip or an actual trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The Euro is about to calm all our nerves. Let’s light up a fatty while we wait. 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We await the King 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I can only imagine how bad it is in there right about nowOnly thing worse than bad is crickets. Silence is deafening down here…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 50 minutes ago, Scraff said: Incredible GooFuS run! Is it wrong that I wanted 1 more full panel to keep it rolling after 132? How can we slow it down so we can make a run to BECSville? We ARE probably gonna make a run at BECSville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 18 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Not cliff jumping, just stating facts. You start pushing lows into WV then 80% or more of this forum is waving bye-bye to large snow numbers and hello to 2,3,4 inches of front end then 1-2 inches of sleet or quarter inch of freezing rain, then MAYBE a switch back to snow and another 3-5 inches. Again, only a couple models showing this but a bad, bad trend is starting to rear up. 80% huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well in regards to the Ukie solution: 19 minutes ago, TriPol said: A primary that survives all the way to Erie in this pattern is structurally suspect. It requires the cold dome to retreat faster than the synoptic setup allows. The 1032 mb high to the west is not a paper tiger. It is feeding low-level cold and keeping the boundary pinned south and east. Primaries do not just waltz through that without consequences. Ukie keeping it mostly snow in NYC while dragging the primary to Erie is internally inconsistent. If the primary truly gets that far north and west, the low-level flow into NYC backs too much from the south. You do not get to keep a clean snow profile and a strong inland primary at the same time. One of those has to give. What usually gives is the primary. In reality, with this kind of trough geometry and thickness field, the inland low weakens earlier. Energy transfers near the coast. The inland center becomes a bag of isobars and stops mattering. That is exactly the evolution the GFS, Euro, and most ensembles favor in similar regimes. Ukie has a known bias here. It over-amplifies inland primaries in cold-dominant patterns, especially at this lead time. It often delays or underplays the transfer, then corrects late when the coastal baroclinic zone asserts itself. La la land is not an unfair description. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well in regards to the Ukie solution: Everyone knows and no one knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well in regards to the Ukie solution: Close the panic room please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 im already looking ahead to our next blizzard https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Euro has begun. Here's to one more good time before bed 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Let's just relax and have a look at the other models. Look, it's only a blip. We got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Ji said: im already looking ahead to our next blizzard https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png Actually stays too far east for you or me verbatim. But we have a couple of minutes before it's a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Ji said: im already looking ahead to our next blizzard https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png Wrong thread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 3Z NBM 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Euro AI slight shift north, but absolutely ZERO worries mixing! 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 0Z EURO AI looks great. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Huh? They also don’t want it to move north so think it’s wrong lol https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/2013808206854709486?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO AI looks great. Euro AIFS has been remarkably consistent through this system so far... If it verifies, it might jump to my favorite model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Okay, this Euro run we want the same amount of Baja interaction IMO. No more, no less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO AI looks great. kept temps in teens for entire storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Actually that stronger low MSLP signature in WV is annoying on the Euro AI. Edit: I don't think this is cause for panic at this point, just want to see this stay in TN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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