WxMan1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Canadian: need to watch other models to see if they start showing a dying low over the mountains. Very Miller B-ish 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 hours ago, Disc said: I still wouldn't want to cheer for more phasing as that will introduce a lot more mixing issues. We saw that scenario a day or so ago with some models taking the primary into TN and KY, then doing a hop to the coast. The 18z Euro has hints of this with lower MSLP into WV. The 12z run has much less evidence of this. Just something to keep tabs on moving forward. Like I mentioned earlier, before everyone gets carried away cheering on the amped stuff, this is what you get. Canadian did something similar hinting at low pressure sliding up into West Virginia. This is enough to draw in warmer air aloft. Ok yes, gotta sniff the mix to get the good stuff, but do you wanna be sniffing the mix 3 days out? 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Canadian: need to watch other models to see if they start showing a dying low over the mountains. This was the key. Idc what kind of cold air intrusion you have, a low onto Charleston, WV is gonna cause mix issues. If we get the primary closer to Knoxville area, that probably perfect. I would even work with Eastern KY. Just can’t get it north of there or there will be mixing. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, TSSN+ said: So much for the high is too strong crowd, this won’t trend north people. la nina/Se ridge lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I am not going to get mad at 15 inch storm with 2 inches of liquid after seeing dustings and trace storms all winter. At least we get the snow first 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Ji said: la nina/Se ridge lol You just keep listening to that TWC jazz. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I SWEAR I forecast a floor of 4-8 with a potential max of 12-18! Praying the Ukmet holds! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Ji said: I am not going to get mad at 15 inch storm with 2 inches of liquid after seeing dustings and trace storms all winter. At least we get the snow first Yeah ain't mad, just worried about it getting worse by being too far north. At this juncture I'd hope the models haven't been so wrong that we get skunked completely by that. But it is 4 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago the worst part about the Canada is it dosent go back to snow after sleet. That would be unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago At this stage I still feel like it's more likely some NS trash is introduced (or a helpful piece is lost) that prevents a CMC phase, than we actually get the CMC phase. This has not been a NS that plays nice and phases eagerly this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I SWEAR I forecast a floor of 4-8 with a potential max of 12-18! Praying the Ukmet holds! Lowkenuinely its over for you bro. You finna gon get beat up dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Yeah ain't mad, just worried about it getting worse by being too far north. At this juncture I'd hope the models haven't been so wrong that we get skunked completely by that. But it is 4 days away...Being totally skunked isn’t possible - we’d at least get like 4” of sleet if this really got screwed up somehow. Which isn’t as cool but it’s interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: CMC is a coastal runner. We do need the north trends to slow down now. We got what we needed today. But we can’t have it keep going. Tomorrow is only Wednesday This. We've had 125% of the needed 'north trend' happen in 2 runs. It is only Tuesday as you said, this happening over the next 3 days would have been a lot better. MAYBE a couple models drift back south, but usually once a trend starts it doesn't stop. I know it's only the GFS and CMC, but heck at this rate we may be talking severe weather by Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Relax. We were never getting 16” 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: What about DC metro mixing over to sleet then back to snow? Still think this storm will be similar to PDII in that way. Sleet is possible in any of these big storms. The warm layer can find its way in.. but the cold air is pretty well entrenched with this system and and I am not quite seeing much of the negative tilt in upper levels that would lead to warm air intrusion. This is also the same reason why we are not seeing the HECs level QPF totals like we saw in 03. Obviously this can change.. but this looks more like snow than anything else for the DC metro region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Being totally skunked isn’t possible - we’d at least get like 4” of sleet if this really got screwed up somehow. Which isn’t as cool but it’s interesting 4" of sleet on top of like 6-10" I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I’ve learned a long time ago that if you want all snow, you want the primary low to transfer from around Tennessee and not seep into Kentucky or further north. If you ever worry about mixing, watch for that. Learned the hard way in Feb 2007. But even a great storm can have some mixing. Like PDII or Feb 10, 2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Relax. We were never getting 16” Name checks out 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago High gets bullied out despite -nAo/50 50 ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Ji said: High gets bullied out despite -nAo/50 50 ? I mean do you see the low pressures out west? The reason the CMC run irks me so much is that it checks out. If we get that strong of a NS with that strong of a SW and the timing right we will mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago High gets bullied out despite -nAo/50 50 ?It’s the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago WB 0Z GEFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS thats a decent tick right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The cliff jumping in here over the CMC is ridiculous. Icon and GFS already smoked us. The King will probably do the same (and yeah, I will always bend the knee for the Euro) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp. It’s… gonna be a lot of sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp. It is really loading up the precip shield vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It’s… gonna be a lot of sleet. It looks to be more amped than even the CMC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Pivotal broken on Ukie all of a sudden 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago UKMET is like a 18" thump before sleet, chillax 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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