SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, stormtracker said: Its the CMC and it's on it's own. Viable solution, but I'll wait for confirmation....up next Euro Absolute huge changes were made out west to get the CMC to where it is. Will need to monitor if its real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Canadian is def going to bring sleet into the picture. has a warm nose at around 700. I just got done with wanting the N-NW trends to stop and all of a sudden a few minutes later the CMC comes out with a sleet bomb. Lol, that was quick. The shifting, more amplified orientation of the heavy snow axis (more SW-NE vs. W-E) makes me think of the Feb 12, 2014 event. Here in the Crofton area we got a solid 7+ inches of cold smoke before a sleet fest, then another 3-5" of wrap around later the next day. That was more of a true Miller A though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: It doesn’t have to be. Just about every other model shows how we can get a foot plus of cold powder with no mix issues. For some reason you keep asking for it to amp up more and for what? The potential of 2-3 extra inches if you happen to fall on the right side of the mix? . Not 2 or 3 inches. Another foot potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, clskinsfan said: Not ridiculous at all. We always mix with the big storms. Even out here. There is a difference between mixing with sleet during a lull and pounding sleet during the WAA. CMC pounds sleet. That's not a hallmark of greatness. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: No it is not. Frankly its a ridiculous statement. In order to get the goods we don't need a huge ass full phase out west. Remember, the Ukmet has shown its HECS in part because the phase is so messy which leads to better moisture transport. We want to see less NS interaction going into the 6z suite for some of the models now. Historically....at least for these parts....the big dogs mix at some point at or south of the 66/50 corridor. Sometimes further north but that's usually a good marker for the mix line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Nomz said: Not sure I really buy the GFS or the Canadian at this point... we turn our eyes to the euro Why? They all are basically showing the same thing with some minor differences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Hopefully ukmet isn't as close to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Its the CMC and it's on it's own. Viable solution, but I'll wait for confirmation....up next Euro Yeah it makes you wonder...hadn't conceived of too far north possibly being an issue but here we are with that as a possibility, smh I mean if this run were THE goalpost I could live with it (still close to a foot + sleet) But I worry about an even further north trend now (more mix or even rain scenarios?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Substantially north. That is .3 total precip more for the northern crew Actually about .25-.30 more for NC/VA line north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks like about 14" on the CMC Kuchera..not sure if that includes sleet It does, but it lowers the accum amounts per panel to account for the lower overall ratio of the sleet. It was 11” of snow before the flip for DC. Was looking earlier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not 2 or 3 inches. Another foot potentially Well the CMC just amped up and shows people just on the right side of the mix line getting just about the same amount every other model has already spit out and the people in the mix will obviously get less than every other model shows. Not sure this storm has the potential to give you what you’re looking for man. Take the safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I just don't want the ZR. Not woth those surface temps and the arctic blast behind the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 “Conservative” 10:1 map from CMC. This far out, all these various scenarios still are showing our best chance at a 6”+ threat region wide. Love that. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, umdterps29 said: Well the CMC just amped up and shows people just on the right side of the mix line getting just about the same amount every other model has already spit out and the people in the mix will obviously get less than every other model shows. Not sure this storm has the potential to give you what you’re looking for man. Take the safe bet . It’s the CMC, everyone makes it seem like it’s the Euro. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, nj2va said: “Conservative” 10:1 map from CMC Can we please get the non conservative Kuchie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, nj2va said: “Conservative” 10:1 map from CMC Mix or not CMC still hammers us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah it makes you wonder...hadn't conceived of too far north possibly being an issue but here we are with that as a possibility, smh I mean if this run were THE goalpost I could live with it (still close to a foot + sleet) But I worry about an even further north trend now Absolutely. With 96 or so hours to go, absolutely. But that high to the north though, no GL low, lots of in-situ CAD potential. Again though, low-layers (sfc-850mb) are not the issue. Areas east of 95 but not on the Eastern Shore would be lucky to hit 30F for a high Sunday. It's the warm nose above 750mb that would either rime the hell out of the snow or give us a crusty layer of sleet. Personally I'll gladly take 10-12" with a nice encapsulating sleet crust. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, nj2va said: “Conservative” 10:1 map from CMC forgive the IMBY post(and delete or move if necessary, mods), but can y'all post these maps just a teensy bit zoomed out so the whole subforum is on the map, if at all possible? IDK how these websites are setup, so maybe its not possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Canadian ensembles will be intriguing. They tend to take a while to come out so I won't see them until tomorrow but would be nice to see them imply a track south of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, ravensrule said: Can we please get the non conservative Kuchie. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I’ve noticed that the Canadian rarely agrees with the consensus. It’s usually way north or way south. This seems like one of those times it’s too amped. Haven’t seen any solutions remotely resembling it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 New word of the day. Encapsulating. I like it. Conjures up a glacial mood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 0Z Canadian: need to watch other models to see if they start showing a dying low over the mountains; that pulling up milder air sloft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 CMC is showing Richmond now below 5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, nj2va said: So very similar to the 10:1. I’ll take my 15” and move on to the real models. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 So much for the high is too strong crowd, this won’t trend north people. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, LVblizzard said: I’ve noticed that the Canadian rarely agrees with the consensus. It’s usually way north or way south. This seems like one of those times it’s too amped. Haven’t seen any solutions remotely resembling it. I would agree that, anecdotally, the CMC seems like the model that flirts with a very different look most often while getting close to game time. For as much as we give the GFS shit, it seems to go off on its own tangent a little further out. CMC also seems to really like mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Canadian: need to watch other models to see if they start showing a dying low over the mountains. Very Miller B-ish 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 hours ago, Disc said: I still wouldn't want to cheer for more phasing as that will introduce a lot more mixing issues. We saw that scenario a day or so ago with some models taking the primary into TN and KY, then doing a hop to the coast. The 18z Euro has hints of this with lower MSLP into WV. The 12z run has much less evidence of this. Just something to keep tabs on moving forward. Like I mentioned earlier, before everyone gets carried away cheering on the amped stuff, this is what you get. Canadian did something similar hinting at low pressure sliding up into West Virginia. This is enough to draw in warmer air aloft. Ok yes, gotta sniff the mix to get the good stuff, but do you wanna be sniffing the mix 3 days out? 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Canadian: need to watch other models to see if they start showing a dying low over the mountains. This was the key. Idc what kind of cold air intrusion you have, a low onto Charleston, WV is gonna cause mix issues. If we get the primary closer to Knoxville area, that probably perfect. I would even work with Eastern KY. Just can’t get it north of there or there will be mixing. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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