January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[JenkinsJinkies]

And the CMC run is exhibit A as to why I'm not jumping onto the hype train yet.

Though it's not a total loss and will still have a decent accumulation of snow.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

No it is not. Frankly its a ridiculous statement. In order to get the goods we don't need a huge ass full phase out west. Remember, the Ukmet has shown its HECS in part because the phase is so messy which leads to better moisture transport. We want to see less NS interaction going into the 6z suite for some of the models now. 

Not ridiculous at all. We always mix with the big storms. Even out here.

[stormtracker]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Regardless i would take that run in a heartbeat. It’s still gorgeous. 

Agreed

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Its the CMC and it's on it's own.  Viable solution, but I'll wait for confirmation....up next Euro

Absolute huge changes were made out west to get the CMC to where it is. Will need to monitor if its real

[WxMan1]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Canadian is def going to bring sleet into the picture. has a warm nose at around 700. 

I just got done with wanting the N-NW trends to stop and all of a sudden a few minutes later the CMC comes out with a sleet bomb. Lol, that was quick.

The shifting, more amplified orientation of the heavy snow axis (more SW-NE vs. W-E) makes me think of the Feb 12, 2014 event. Here in the Crofton area we got a solid 7+ inches of cold smoke before a sleet fest, then another 3-5" of wrap around later the next day. That was more of a true Miller A though. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

It doesn’t have to be. Just about every other model shows how we can get a foot plus of cold powder with no mix issues. For some reason you keep asking for it to amp up more and for what? The potential of 2-3 extra inches if you happen to fall on the right side of the mix?


.

Not 2 or 3 inches. Another foot potentially 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Not ridiculous at all. We always mix with the big storms. Even out here.

There is a difference between mixing with sleet during a lull and pounding sleet during the WAA. CMC pounds sleet. That's not a hallmark of greatness. 

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

No it is not. Frankly its a ridiculous statement. In order to get the goods we don't need a huge ass full phase out west. Remember, the Ukmet has shown its HECS in part because the phase is so messy which leads to better moisture transport. We want to see less NS interaction going into the 6z suite for some of the models now. 

Historically....at least for these parts....the big dogs mix at some point at or south of the 66/50 corridor. Sometimes further north but that's usually a good marker for the mix line.

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

 Not sure I really buy the GFS or the Canadian at this point... we turn our eyes to the euro 

Why?  They all are basically showing the same thing with some minor differences.  

[winter_warlock]

  Hopefully ukmet isn't as close to coast

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Its the CMC and it's on it's own.  Viable solution, but I'll wait for confirmation....up next Euro

Yeah it makes you wonder...hadn't conceived of too far north possibly being an issue but here we are with that as a possibility, smh I mean if this run were THE goalpost I could live with it (still close to a foot + sleet) But I worry about an even further north trend now (more mix or even rain scenarios?)

[wxdude64]

24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Substantially north. That is .3 total precip more for the northern crew

Actually about .25-.30 more for NC/VA line north.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like about 14" on the CMC Kuchera..not sure if that includes sleet

It does, but it lowers the accum amounts per panel to account for the lower overall ratio of the sleet. It was 11” of snow before the flip for DC. Was looking earlier. 

[umdterps29]

Not 2 or 3 inches. Another foot potentially 

Well the CMC just amped up and shows people just on the right side of the mix line getting just about the same amount every other model has already spit out and the people in the mix will obviously get less than every other model shows. Not sure this storm has the potential to give you what you’re looking for man. Take the safe bet


.

[clskinsfan]

I just don't want the ZR. Not woth those surface temps and the arctic blast behind the storm.

[nj2va]

“Conservative” 10:1 map from CMC.  This far out, all these various scenarios still are showing our best chance at a 6”+ threat region wide.  Love that.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, umdterps29 said:

Well the CMC just amped up and shows people just on the right side of the mix line getting just about the same amount every other model has already spit out and the people in the mix will obviously get less than every other model shows. Not sure this storm has the potential to give you what you’re looking for man. Take the safe bet


.

It’s the CMC, everyone makes it seem like it’s the Euro. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

“Conservative” 10:1 map from CMC

Can we please get the non conservative Kuchie. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

“Conservative” 10:1 map from CMC

Mix or not CMC still hammers us

[WxMan1]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah it makes you wonder...hadn't conceived of too far north possibly being an issue but here we are with that as a possibility, smh I mean if this run were THE goalpost I could live with it (still close to a foot + sleet) But I worry about an even further north trend now

Absolutely. With 96 or so hours to go, absolutely. But that high to the north though, no GL low, lots of in-situ CAD potential. Again though, low-layers (sfc-850mb) are not the issue. Areas east of 95 but not on the Eastern Shore would be lucky to hit 30F for a high Sunday. It's the warm nose above 750mb that would either rime the hell out of the snow or give us a crusty layer of sleet. Personally I'll gladly take 10-12" with a nice encapsulating sleet crust. 

[AlexD1990]

Just now, nj2va said:

“Conservative” 10:1 map from CMC

forgive the IMBY post(and delete or move if necessary, mods), but can y'all post these maps just a teensy bit zoomed out so the whole subforum is on the map, if at all possible? IDK how these websites are setup, so maybe its not possible

[baltosquid]

Canadian ensembles will be intriguing. They tend to take a while to come out so I won't see them until tomorrow but would be nice to see them imply a track south of the op.

[nj2va]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Can we please get the non conservative Kuchie. 

[LVblizzard]

I’ve noticed that the Canadian rarely agrees with the consensus. It’s usually way north or way south. This seems like one of those times it’s too amped. Haven’t seen any solutions remotely resembling it.

[nw baltimore wx]

New word of the day.  Encapsulating.  

I like it.  Conjures up a glacial mood.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z Canadian:  need to watch other models to see if they start showing a dying low over the mountains; that pulling up milder air sloft.

[Berlin1926]

CMC is showing Richmond now below 5"?  

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

So very similar to the 10:1. I’ll take my 15” and move on to the real models. 

[TSSN+]

So much for the high is too strong crowd, this won’t trend north people. 

[baltosquid]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

I’ve noticed that the Canadian rarely agrees with the consensus. It’s usually way north or way south. This seems like one of those times it’s too amped. Haven’t seen any solutions remotely resembling it.

I would agree that, anecdotally, the CMC seems like the model that flirts with a very different look most often while getting close to game time. For as much as we give the GFS shit, it seems to go off on its own tangent a little further out. CMC also seems to really like mixed precip.