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January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage


stormtracker
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Just now, Weather Will said:

I agree that the NAMs are not good, but they do sometimes show red flags: like the low out west not ejecting east, or a Great Lakes low appearing.  No flies in the ointment in this run that I can see at 0Z.

The NAM is a terrible model until it shows the least snowy outcome, then it becomes prime Euro.

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TWC naming a “storm” that is simply model 1’s and 0’s right now is hysterical. That channel was much more fun to watch on my CRT cabinet television hooked up to rabbit ears.

7d0790de5a9677ea9f464b9ef2d0ef69.jpg

Not just naming it… putting this map out there already.


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Just now, jayyy said:


7d0790de5a9677ea9f464b9ef2d0ef69.jpg

Not just naming it… putting this map out there already.


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That is absolutely ridiculous. I will be lucky to see half that.

It generally seems local TV forecasters are much more responsible. They are more accountable and aren't the sole source of revenue 

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1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

That is absolutely ridiculous. I will be lucky to see half that.

It generally seems local TV forecasters are much more responsible. They are more accountable and aren't the sole source of revenue 

If you’re in Lynchburg, you could very well see 15+”. There’s a chance this amps up and you mix down there, but your area is setup to get crushed by the WAA regime, at the very least. I wouldn’t just dismiss this forecast for you unless you are truly expecting this to shift well to your north. 
 

That said, TWC putting out a forecast is insanity at this range. 

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18 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Only reason NAM is the worst is the CRAS model got retired.

Bring back the ETA. Old school is still worth something! Look at Johnny Lawrence from Karate Kid/Cobra Kai! Guy is still a badass. 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 Pretty bold this early.  Weird they have that max where there's going to be some mixing

Agree. I think it's a bit early to be putting out these kinds of specific amounts right now for specific areas. Maybe on Friday or something, whatever it looks like by then. At this point it would be more responsible and helpful to either show some kind of probability or likelihood given current indications. Like prob of getting 6" or more, 12" or more, with some description or verbiage about the uncertainty or range. 

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