January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[MN Transplant]

Went from ~0.06" QPF to ~0.75" around DC from 12z to 18z.  Love the GFS.

[winter_warlock]

So nice to see GFS come around!!! !!!   All on board now!!!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Totals 

Dayum...from an inch or maybe two at 12Z, to a foot-plus in the DMV!  The 10:1 ratios are still on the order of @stormtracker's baseline of 6-10" area wide.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Gfs still fighting for its life to catch up. 

Yup lol she will get there!!!

[Bob Chill]

There is no doubt in my mind the gfs is SPOT ON this time. Someone please ctrl+alt+del it immediately, m'kay? Tx!

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Precip shield is further north and more robust than 12z!

Yeah was noticing that.  I like that there's not a sharp cutoff and it's expanded.

[Weather Will]

What is very interesting is that the GFS is now a southern version UK/CMC nuke job.

[Amped]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Love that the run looks really solid but this looks as a major upside option. The ceiling for this is definitely a HECS level event, even if not likely. 

I don't think that the ridging over Florida and the Yucatan is going to allow for a negative tilt. Thats why its not bombing even on the runs that do show a phase. Kind of just an overrunning event on steroids like February 1994.

If the northern stream digs more further west it can certainly prolong it though.

[TSSN+]

Gefs amped more than 12z so far. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

I don't think that the ridging over Florida and the Yucatan is going to allow for a negative tilt. Thats why its not bombing even on the runs that do show a phase. Kind of just an overrunning event on steroids like February 1994.

If the northern stream digs more further west it can certainly prolong it though.

I do agree, I feel like it would have to put down those 2’ totals through a prolonged event and backside CCB with high ratios…not as much a low capture or neg tilt that bombs a low off the capes. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

There it is!

If we just get normal north shift even 10s of miles each day it’s just insanity.  I like our position on that run.  

[StormyClearweather]

Kuchera ratios are 17-18:1 for most of us during peak. I mean I'm not saying I buy it, but I'm not saying I don't either. 

 

 

[snowmagnet]

Is this 2016 vibes or 2010? 2016 was more recent, but I think we knew it would be over 24” by this point.  I really hate seeing the 2 feet range in Richmond. 

[87storms]

So per my storage unit company (which just sent out a notice about the storm), this winter storm is called Fern. Oy vay.

[CAPE]

I cant help but admire the surface.. how often do we see a wall of HP across the north and west with juiced up overrunning and a low emerging off the NC coast. No mutha fucking Great Lakes low.

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Totals 

Wow...and that's stuff NOT coming together as good as it could be? Sweet mercy

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...and that's stuff NOT coming together as good as it could be? Sweet mercy

A wall of overrunning precip 600-800 miles wide can put down some big numbers. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z.

Lolol Bruh what is wrong with this thing?

[TSSN+]

Keep it comin 

[Terpeast]

I bet some of those 30” totals in NC is sleet. But a storm like this, especially a phaser, someone somewhere might get 2+ feet.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Keep it comin 

Oh My. This looks legit

[clskinsfan]

Still think the jack ends up north of Richmond. Not really sure where. But maybe a line from Harrisonburg east. Something like that. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I bet some of those 30” totals in NC is sleet. But a storm like this, especially a phaser, someone somewhere might get 2+ feet.

I'm thinkin sleet is likely for me even though most models show my area in the safe zone. If it's a qpf bomb like it appears to want to be, climo strongly favors sleet. But it's quite a wall of confluence unlike a scared HP running away so maybe not... 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

Is this 2016 vibes or 2010? 2016 was more recent, but I think we knew it would be over 24” by this point.  I really hate seeing the 2 feet range in Richmond. 

The 2016 blizzard obviously was a totally different animal.  Mainly it was a far better-defined scenario (and a Nino) that the models can handle more easily.  I've said this before, but I swear a week before it hit while looking at model discussion on this site, every single model clicked into place for a MAJOR event.  It was only the details that were to be determined.  But we ALL knew it was coming, and game on right then.  From that point the models really didn't waver outside those fine details.  I believe Feb. 2010 (the first one, Feb. 5-6) was similar, long lead where it was well pinned down what was coming.

[Winter Wizard]

Is there a major storm where the GFS WASN'T overly suppressed? I would be more concerned if it wasn't. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Still think the jack ends up north of Richmond. Not really sure where. But maybe a line from Harrisonburg east. Something like that. 

In some of the top biguns CHO tends to do really well, I could see them over to to EZF being a jack zone

[SnowenOutThere]

Just started typing up the analysis and I think it'll generally make a lot of people rather happy. 

[somecallmetim]

13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Went from ~0.06" QPF to ~0.75" around DC from 12z to 18z.  Love the GFS.

Maybe we've found the true replacement for the NAM?

[WeatherGeek2025]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z.

gfs is the most garbage model