January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Kleimax]

Anyone have the Euro 10:1 ratio? Tropical tidbits hasn’t even started running yet 

[mitchnick]

AI EPS precip

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Feb 20th?

Feb 20th 2025. Look at the thread from last year, won't poison this thread with the details. 

[nj2va]

EPS mean snowfall totals bumped higher vs 00z…6” line through DC at H168.  Definitely favors Cent/S VA with 8”+ down there.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, H2O said:

How far south?  EZF or RIC?  How many members are whiffs?

From what I can see, the real risk of ice/sleet is from EZF south to the Carolinas. I don't really see any truly suppressed members that have NOVA/DC/Baltimore smoking cirrus while the Carolinas win. It looks like the "worst case" is a moderate 4" - 6" event.

[andyhb]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Cold ai pressing in better at the mid levels. It's a great trend. All of the inland primary lows that tried to run into SW PA or northern WV are gone. Clear signal for a better transfer to the/a coastal. 

Also,

 

 

And for the knockout punch...

[brooklynwx99]

EPS has more phasing

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS has more phasing

Cold, wetter, more phasing.

[clskinsfan]

This thread may end up with multiple threats in it. Depending on how that energy is ejected out of the SW. Feels good to be tracking a big dog again though man. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI EPS precip

That’s a shift north with heaviest qpf over 0z 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

And for the knockout punch...

This is my favorite analog, maybe slightly less QPF laden, but the overrunning and a “light” primary transfer from S OV/TN valley being the key. Anomalously cold airmass as well much akin to PD2.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

This is my favorite analog, maybe slightly less QPF laden, but the overrunning and a “light” primary transfer from S OV/TN valley being the key. Anomalously cold airmass as well much akin to PD2.

Yes. That's my favorite setup. Snow just comes in like a wall and it doesn't stop. No wasting 4 hours on virga. 

[nj2va]

Banana High

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes. That's my favorite setup. Snow just comes in like a wall and it doesn't stop. No wasting 4 hours on virga. 

Couldn’t agree more. Great ratios, cold smoke, “lesser” complexity. And it piles up beautifully. 

[bncho]

EPS more amped up

[EHoffman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes. That's my favorite setup. Snow just comes in like a wall and it doesn't stop. No wasting 4 hours on virga. 

It's really the ideal setup for DC snow.  We need that overrunning to really pump up our storm totals before the transfer.  Feel like I had like 15" of overrunning in 2016 alone.

[TSSN+]

So ugh the big question, when does gfs fold? 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

So ugh the big question, when does gfs fold? 

Gotta be soon considering almost every model except the GFS shows a big snowstorm for most of us!

[snowfan]

Some would say there’s a decent signal at this range.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI Ensembles did tighten up the northern edge a bit, perhaps it lost some of the more northerly solutions.  But it did increase total qpf in dc.   

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Some would say there’s a decent signal at this range.

 

 There's a chance 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

So ugh the big question, when does gfs fold? 

Thursday's model runs will be the make or break for guidance. Most of the players will be within the upper air network in North America, and I'd be my bottom dollar that NOAA will be running extra planes for data sampling.

[Wxtrix]

good sign:

https://bsky.app/profile/wxmvpete.bsky.social/post/3mcril3p4522p

 

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS more amped up

EPS trend gif would help visuals

[J.Mike]

26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You're missing two zeroes after the one.   But yes.  'For the board".

Katie, you said you had a Ruth Chris near you?  Board meeting.  For the board.  

I love Ruth Chris (hint hint). Oh i’ll pick up the check too. Hope the snow will have melted by March. 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

From what I can see, the real risk of ice/sleet is from EZF south to the Carolinas. I don't really see any truly suppressed members that have NOVA/DC/Baltimore smoking cirrus while the Carolinas win. It looks like the "worst case" is a moderate 4" - 6" event.

Climo is climo. I can't buy the 12z euro for 1 simple reason. It would be one of the top 5 biggest storms in history down this way. Idk if this is the kind of setup for something that historic. Blizzard of 96 was 24" in Roanoke. Feb 2014 was close to 20". A 15-20" storm is quite rare. Imo, the DC area is more likely to get 15-20" than central and swva.  That said, my yard is in a pretty good spot and I'm pretty fired up over the potential. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

good sign:

https://bsky.app/profile/wxmvpete.bsky.social/post/3mcril3p4522p

 

Pete's the best. I went to school with him and he was one of my heroes of forecasting. Always was able to spot things others would miss.

[MillvilleWx]

15 minutes ago, andyhb said:

 

If you want a major storm, you want Tomer Burg talking like this. End of story.

I worked with Tomer when he was DTB at WPC…this is incredible coming from him…..but he’s not wrong imo. Do I think it’ll be the same magnitude? Probably not, but impactful to a point of major impact potential? Yes, it really could be. This is a pattern where it might not be just one system we are tracking. The teleconnections tell the story. This is the lineup for Mid Atlantic storminess.
 

Details be damned, but this is truly a pattern where there will be a ton to watch over the next 2 weeks. Prep that coffee and prepare for cold weather, at a minimum.  

[EHoffman]

I know it's a silly point forecast but how often to we have that high POPs this far out plus highs barely out of the teens.  Gotta be a strong signal.

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Planning to start my deep dive H5 post shortly. So far all I will say is that I think with the recent set of guidance have have since passed even Feb 20 at its peak in consistency and likelihood. 

I don’t have @psuhoffman’s photographic memory for random 6z runs of failed storms, but my memory for late February last year was we had this amazing signal but guidance was never keying in on the same storm or shortwave? It was more of a several day period that looked good (and failed). So this looks quite different with a clear shortwave and storm development scenario.