January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[buckeyefan1]

Players still on the table….check

euro bias of holding back the energy some…check

high pressure in a good spot…check

blocking established…..check

moisture feed….check 

3 days to go before we have a clue on specific types and/or guesstimate amounts….check

Winter chaos incoming

[Brick Tamland]

[HKY_WX]

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Most of the EURO front end SNOW as depicted on the map will be SLEET or a mix if you look at thermals.   Be cautious with the snowfall map.

What map are you referring to?

[cbmclean]

Clearly a lot of the guidance wants to pull in the Baja low.  I am hoping that modelling is just as wrong as those that were scooting the cold air in Sunday in time for snow.  But hope is not a substitute for analysis.  I am intrigued by Eric Webb's posts about the SW energy coming out to soon.  I hope he is as arrogantly right about that as he was on Sunday.

[buckeyefan1]

12 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Maybe so, but that still points towards an ICY MIX and not all snow.  Once again, the storm is too strong and not placed well for central NC to have all snow.  

For the last time, not one single person has even said this. EVERYONE knows precip types are not even close to being set. Read more and post less if this is the best you can do. 

[frazdaddy]

I see you lurking Mr. East, thoughts?

[Thrasher Fan]

Essentially the EURO does not have the blocking quite as strong as the GFS thus the differences in precip type at this point.

 

Both are indicating ample moisture availability regardless of blocking.

[Brick Tamland]

[ADB83]

This thing clearly has plenty of quantitative precipitation to work with that is for sure. Definitely gonna be a mess, but this is going to be a big event.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

For the last time, not one single person has even said this. EVERYONE knows precip types are not even close to being set. Read more and post less if this is the best you can do. 

No matter what the models are showing he always likes to crap on everything with the worst possible outcome. 

[SnowDawg]

18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I’m certainly not knowledgeable enough to argue with him on that but most others Mets are saying that a slower ejection increases the risk of phasing, and gives the TPV lobe and HP more time to start retreating, opening the door for more north trends. I guess a slower ejection can be good but only if the northern stream wave doesn’t also slow down and dig more west to phase? 

[PackGrad05]

4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

What map are you referring to?

The total snowfall map that BRICK posted.  That will NOT be all snow.

[snowbird1230]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

The total snowfall map that BRICK posted.  That will NOT be all snow.

In your backyard?

[PackGrad05]

Just now, snowbird1230 said:

In your backyard?

In anyone's backyard.  The snowfall map does not take into consideration mid-level thermals at all locations.  As depicted, some of that "snow" will be ice/freezing rain.

[Stormpc]

14 minutes ago, SouthboundYank said:

Good to continue to read you here in the SE forum, after reading you in the MA forum. I know you moved a few years back to OBX...we've since moved to KMYR. Even more interesting tracking from this far south.   

Yeah. The MA forum is REALLY good at that freaking-out thing. Don't miss that, although there were several really good analysts up that way. To be fair, the DMV was often in the screw zone, but FFS c'mon, folks...understand your climo.

Nice!! I do remember you in the Hayfield area of Alexandria if my memory is correct. Yes I am in Currituck county. On the mainland side right up against the sound. We did great last year with an 8 inch and a 13 or 14 inch storm after that. Been down here since 2018. 

We do okay on Southern sliders but anything with any juice to it flips very quickly here. We have to count on the front end thump and maybe a fluffy inch or two on the back end after the rain washes a lot of it away. That looks like the scenario here even though we are way out in time. 

Good to see you in here!!

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

In anyone's backyard.  The snowfall map does not take into consideration mid-level thermals at all locations.  As depicted, some of that "snow" will be ice/freezing rain.

Take it to banter before I lose my patience because WE ALL KNOW THIS

[franklin NCwx]

3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I’m certainly not knowledgeable enough to argue with him on that but most others Mets are saying that a slower ejection increases the risk of phasing, and gives the TPV lobe and HP more time to start retreating, opening the door for more north trends. I guess a slower ejection can be good but only if the northern stream wave doesn’t also slow down and dig more west to phase? 

Unless the northern vort runs out faster and flattens the flow ahead of the Baja low

[HKY_WX]

Brick, just post the kuchera snowfall map. That takes into account thermals.

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Brick, just post the kuchera snowfall map. That takes into account thermals.

I usually do but you have to pay for those for the Euro on Pivotal. 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Unless the northern vort runs out faster and flattens the flow ahead of the Baja low

Exactly, that is what we are rooting for in NC: the north vort to go ahead of the Baja.  If they come out fast together then the storm is amped.  If they come out slowly together, the storm will be amped AND the cold air will be retreating.

[WXNewton]

12z Euro kuchera

[TriadTom_wxm]

Still to see lots of change from this being this far out....and on the Kuchera, but still fun to look at as of now for us NC folks

[wncsnow]

If it phases earlier, the mid Atlantic and NE will rejoice while we weep without power. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Back in the day, I think you used to check the UKIE for baja phasing situations. There was an old bias card. But I don't know if it's even applicable now after all the updates.

[lilj4425]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Exactly, that is what we are rooting for in NC: the north vort to go ahead of the Baja.  If they come out fast together then the storm is amped.  If they come out slowly together, the storm will be amped AND the cold air will be retreating.

So in other words, don’t cross the streams.

-Ghostbusters. 

[Brick Tamland]

10 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

12z Euro kuchera

Not really different than the 10:1 ratio map.

[SnowDawg]

EPS trend with the energy pieces.

Baja tend is good but northern energy trend is bad. All together bad for us in terms of wanting more snow and less ice. Can we trend back to a more progressive look with the northern energy? Progressive has been the theme of late but this is an entirely different pattern.

[EarlGrey]

15 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

12z Euro kuchera

Good gracious that gradient is too much. Just a couple counties is all it from oblivion to nothing.

[olafminesaw]

8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

EPS trend with the energy pieces.

Baja tend is good but northern energy trend is bad. All together bad for us in terms of wanting more snow and less ice. Can we trend back to a more progressive look with the northern energy? Progressive has been the theme of late but this is an entirely different pattern.

Am I looking at this right that the northern energy and baja energy are moving closer together and therefore phasing sooner leading to a more amplified solution? What makes the GFS different in this regard?

[Upstate Tiger]

KGSP AFD.  

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Boys and girls...remember these next several days.  You will be talking about them and posting maps long after I have gone on...