January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[cbmclean]

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Seems like half the social media weather community is people from the Northeast who will defend any model that shows what they want to see

Everybody wishcasts to some degree...everybody.  One must just try to minimize it.

[wxdawg10]

this is getting spicy

[BooneWX]

Incoming on the euro 

[SnowDawg]

Probably not a bad thing that the multi-year base state has been for mostly weaker/suppressed/strung out storms and that is the exact scenario that works in our favor this time.

[BornAgain13]

Should be a Big Euro Run....

[BooneWX]

Hell has frozen over, we’re going to have near perfect agreement with the GFS and EURO 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Even Euro AI foresees prodigious Cold 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Just now, SnowDawg said:

Probably not a bad thing that the multi-year base state has been for mostly weaker/suppressed/strung out storms and that is the exact scenario that works in our favor this time.

I’ve always felt this way.  People can still score a decent amount without ice or Plain Jane rain.

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Hell has frozen over, we’re going to have near perfect agreement with the GFS and EURO 

Let the south bleed begin only to swing back north and crush us all in the last 48 hours

[BornAgain13]

Monster Run on the Euro especially central NC and north... 18"+

[wncsnow]

Great trends on the Euro. Baja low trended west. Cold HP trended stronger. 

[buckeyefan1]

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

All but a sliver of VA in double digits is wild. The footprint of this thing is nuts. Very 2010

[BooneWX]

Godspeed to anyone in the freezing rain sector of this storm

[Upstate Tiger]

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Not good for SC but a lot of that would likely be sleet.  

[PackGrad05]

90% of the time, there will be a central NC cutoff...
You can bank on it.

Most of the time that is snow/rain.  This time it may be snow/ice.  But the cutoff is always there.  

Look at that EURO run.  Over 50-75 miles you go from 17" to no snow.  Setting up around southern Wake as usual.

[olafminesaw]

Just textbook

[SnowDawg]

Sleet is always under-modeled. The closer you get to the all snow line the more snow/sleet I think you’d see and less freezing rain.

[BornAgain13]

[BooneWX]

The great southern winter storm of 26

[HWY316wx]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Godspeed to anyone in the freezing rain sector of this storm

I hope to God a lot of that is sleet.  

This run of the EURO was slower to get the moisture in here.  Previous EURO had precip starting in GA Saturday morning, now it is Saturday evening.

 

[BornAgain13]

This is a Classic Winter Storm for the SE/Mid-Atlantic 

[SnowDawg]

In my experience, at least at my location, if those upper air temps verify I’ll be shocked not to see almost entirely snow/sleet. 

[NC_hailstorm]

So I have 17 inches on the Euro and 10 on the GFS,cooking.  

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Sleet is always under-modeled. The closer you get to the all snow line the more snow/sleet I think you’d see and less freezing rain.

Correct.  Especially in the wedge.  This rule is not as useful in the SRN plains/TN Valley/Oh Valley as much but often times in the GA/SC/NC wedge sleet ends up more dominant than you expec

[eyewall]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Correct.  Especially in the wedge.  This rule is not as useful in the SRN plains/TN Valley/Oh Valley as much but often times in the GA/SC/NC wedge sleet ends up more dominant than you expec

Yeah I full expect some taint in central NC from that at this point but I will be happy with a warning level snow even if that does occur.

[btownheel]

We gonna talk about what the Euro AIFS just barfed out? Because it’s the most absurd clown I’ve ever seen. Even the DGEX didn’t snow porn like that.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I full expect some taint in central NC from that at this point but I will be happy with a warning level snow even if that does occur.

If the cold air is as advertised someone might get a 4-6” sleet bomb somewhere out of this if that look on euro verifies 

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If the cold air is as advertised someone might get a 4-6” sleet bomb somewhere out of this if that look on euro verifies 

The glacier will hang around until Easter

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

13 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

In my experience, at least at my location, if those upper air temps verify I’ll be shocked not to see almost entirely snow/sleet. 

True.  This doesn’t look like a snow/ freezing rain line.  There will be a significant sleet area.