First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Modfan2]

HRRR looks decent for tomorrow night

[CCHurricane]

HRRR has much more consolidated LP look, which helps all. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hrrr, it’s predominantly evening but it’s a good thump , would be colder too.  

Def want the mesos on our side as we get to game time.

[Damage In Tolland]

I wouldn’t bother looking at any ops here on out. Useless 

[Kitz Craver]

HRRR we take

[ORH_wxman]

One thing that might help is that when looking at these soundings, the DGZ is pretty deep. So if we can get any type of decent deep layer lift, I’m guessing ratios will be pretty good even for a “wet snow”….its pretty cold off the deck during the meat of it so even 31-32F at the sfc could produce what I call “dry wet snow”. It’s kind of superficially wet maybe on the very sfc but it still is dry enough to hold lots of air if the snow growth is good. 
 

Just something to keep an eye on. If we see a lot of 5-6” amounts where 0.3-0.4” of QPF is being progged, it might not be a QPF bust, but better-than-expected ratios. Now if we just get lighter crap, none of this will even be relevant. 

[cut]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing that might help is that when looking at these soundings, the DGZ is pretty deep. So if we can get any type of decent deep layer lift, I’m guessing ratios will be pretty good even for a “wet snow”….its pretty cold off the deck during the meat of it so even 31-32F at the sfc could produce what I call “dry wet snow”. It’s kind of superficially wet maybe on the very sfc but it still is dry enough to hold lots of air if the snow growth is good. 
 

Just something to keep an eye on. If we see a lot of 5-6” amounts where 0.3-0.4” of QPF is being progged, it might not be a QPF bust, but better-than-expected ratios. Now if we just get lighter crap, none of this will even be relevant. 

I feel like that is what we had this afternoon here in Trumbull CT. Great snow ball snow but seemed fluffy.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing that might help is that when looking at these soundings, the DGZ is pretty deep. So if we can get any type of decent deep layer lift, I’m guessing ratios will be pretty good even for a “wet snow”….its pretty cold off the deck during the meat of it so even 31-32F at the sfc could produce what I call “dry wet snow”. It’s kind of superficially wet maybe on the very sfc but it still is dry enough to hold lots of air if the snow growth is good. 
 

Just something to keep an eye on. If we see a lot of 5-6” amounts where 0.3-0.4” of QPF is being progged, it might not be a QPF bust, but better-than-expected ratios. Now if we just get lighter crap, none of this will even be relevant. 

That’s a good description for what we had today. The particles falling really really slow. Even the big ones floating. Yet I get out there and it was like the best snowball fight snow ever.

[moneypitmike]

For those looking at the HRRR

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Nam looks better at 500 too. Has the morning few inches then loading for the evening.. loving the trends at 00z for tomorrow evening 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Would take the HRRR.  

[dryslot]

The 0z Nam is a few tics west of 18z

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The 0z Nam is a few tics west of 18z

much more consolidated, few mb stronger

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Widespread .36-.65” qpf on 00z guidance tonight .. beefier rates tomorrow night too .. like that look a lot 

[moneypitmike]

pretty robust.

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM favors PVD area to over by Scooter

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM is great here. Snows into Monday morning. 6-8”

[SouthCoastMA]

3k coming in hot too

[wx2fish]

3k looks solid too

[weatherwiz]

northern CT. You can see how deep the DGZ is as Will alluded too. Pretty good lift here too. Can't wait to see this on bufkit

[Typhoon Tip]

NAM was west of 18z

[moneypitmike]

If we could keep it snow.......

[Typhoon Tip]

It’s interesting that the NAM blossom’s little region of pre snows… The mechanics are very similar to what happened today actually… then the system comes up underneath and just melds right into that

[weatherwiz]

Morning stuff could really overperform somewhere

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

If we could keep it snow.......

It would stay mostly snow verbatim. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Morning stuff could really overperform somewhere

That’s my thought process . Just hoping it ends up somewhere in my 4-8” zone

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s interesting that the NAM blossom’s little region of pre snows… The mechanics are very similar to what happened today actually… then the system comes up underneath and just melds right into that

Yeah the pre is early, widespread, and a definite booster.

[moneypitmike]

3k chucks warning weenies from RI northeast to Gloucester

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s my thought process . Just hoping it ends up somewhere in my 4-8” zone

Preferably over East Hartford, CT, USA

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s my thought process . Just hoping it ends up somewhere in my 4-8” zone

I'd feel confident about that should this occur. Starting to think it is gaining more legs though