First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[MJO812]

Sunday is done

Focus on tomorrow

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Yup 

Low here 1", expected 4", High end 6" .

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sunday is done

Focus on tomorrow

Tomorrow looks like dogshit for anyone east of FIT-DXR line. 

[ORH_wxman]

The Canadians and skynet versus everyone else. 

 

Maybe we can pull a Miracle on Ice 1980 out of our ass....this winter has been about on par with '79-'80. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tomorrow looks like dogshit for anyone east of FIT-DXR line. 

Im not seeing any accumulations down here. Maybe a dusting on car tops.

[H2Otown_WX]

All I gotta say is, it's a great time to be TT. Just troll win after troll win. Almost like the Yankees dynasty but if it lasted 10 years instead of 5.

[Masswx]

Nothing ever works out. Winter sucks.

[CoastalWx]

Trained him well

[CCHurricane]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Canadians and skynet versus everyone else. 

 

Maybe we can pull a Miracle on Ice 1980 out of our ass....this winter has been about on par with '79-'80. 

Skynet is capitulating. Decent shift SE on precip shield and precip totals for all outside of extreme SE New England. 

[weathafella]

Expect a big and robust solution across all guidance at 0z.  We have dinner guests so I probably won’t check in until gfs time.  I wouldn’t say GFS Skynet is caving just yet.  It wasn’t THAT different vs 12z and euro op/eps/Skynet is still pending for 18z.  I expect a snowy Sunday.  I always thought tomorrow was garbage for me.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Skynet is capitulating. Decent shift SE on precip shield and precip totals for all outside of extreme SE New England. 

Yeah it def bumped SE but it’s still pretty much right on par with yesterday’s runs and now it looks pretty close to Euro AI. It had been increasing today until 18z. Either way the gap is still huge between both AIs and the OP runs. 
 

Fwiw I do not think they are going to win but even a 50/50 compromise is still a decent event for SE areas anyway. 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Trained him well

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

AI cave started. Should be big by 00z. Hope this turd misses completely. Spare me the 1.5”

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it def bumped SE but it’s still pretty much right on par with yesterday’s runs and now it looks pretty close to Euro AI. It had been increasing today until 18z. Either way the gap is still huge between both AIs and the OP runs. 
 

Fwiw I do not think they are going to win but even a 50/50 compromise is still a decent event for SE areas anyway. 

I know I’m an an island here but I think the AIs are most correct here.  And I don’t think any of us truly understand how they work.  

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it def bumped SE but it’s still pretty much right on par with yesterday’s runs and now it looks pretty close to Euro AI. It had been increasing today until 18z. Either way the gap is still huge between both AIs and the OP runs. 
 

Fwiw I do not think they are going to win but even a 50/50 compromise is still a decent event for SE areas anyway. 

Preferred... for the sake of having a clear answer about the current utility of AI guidance, I want a decisive victor, not gradual ticks towards a compromise.

[amarshall]

I don’t bring it out often




.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, amarshall said:

I don’t bring it out often




.

Same family

[Spaizzo]

I know I’m an an island here but I think the AIs are most correct here.  And I don’t think any of us truly understand how they work.  

Just finished my work AI classes here. AI is only good as the data it is fed the question would be what data it’s being fed and what algorithms it’s using to weigh it. It truly might be seeing something that the regular models aren’t seeing. The ai chat bot we are building looks at our documentation portal but is learning to essentially guess at times what that person is asking. If it’s asked enough the same question it learns or corrects itself based off of whether or not the person continues asking etc.


.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Desperate times call for desperate measures, the RRFS is much farther west gets accumulating snow to river close to warning SEMASS

Ima call that model Roofies.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

All I gotta say is, it's a great time to be TT. Just troll win after troll win. Almost like the Yankees dynasty but if it lasted 10 years instead of 5.

acceptance takes away their ammo. 

they sense the reticence that's frankly wrong, then ... compounded by delusion at grandeur, anything but to see certain aspects that if people just accepted and stopped fighting on every single model run ... you'd de-weaponize them

[Kitz Craver]

Poundmetown taking on a whole new meaning

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

[NorEastermass128]

Who has the crime scene pics from 2011-2012?  That’s how I feel after these past four seasons. 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I know I’m an an island here but I think the AIs are most correct here.  And I don’t think any of us truly understand how they work.  

and why does "...I don't think any of us truly understand how they work", logically mean they are more correct ?

[mattm4242]

[Roger Smith]

I think there will be a much better period of winter synoptics late this month into first half of February especially seeing that extremely cold air masses keep coming south and that period is peak climo for snowstorms. 

[dryslot]

39 minutes ago, amarshall said:

I don’t bring it out often




.

Ha I have that one too.

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

and why does "...I don't think any of us truly understand how they work", logically mean they are more correct ?

Or wrong

[MJO812]

Euro AI east. Looking like the Euro will verify

[Kitz Craver]

We cave