Storm potential January 18th-19th

[eduggs]

The modeled height field looks pretty good 60hr-72hr from TX through AL. The problem is in the Lakes from IN, OH, to NY.

[Franklin0529]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

yea, it will be even further east this run by the looks of it. At this point, just hoping for a couple inches between saturday and sunday and that seems very doable. don't need a blockbuster which was never on the table save a few GFS runs.

Same. I'm totally ok with a couple inches. Was never expecting anything big. Hopefully can pull something off 

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

yeah looks east

The kicker in the Great lakes is mucking it all up

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

how did you come up with that uneducated guess ?

that's what reggie shows, read the comment

[eduggs]

There's still a good chance this hits coastal NJ to LI pretty solidly. The GFS-AI still has half an inch of liquid in those areas. The GFS will probably bounce back west a bit at some point.

There is synoptically a lot of room for this to come west. Jan 11/12 2006 always comes to mind with these types of setups. But I expect this will stay a scraper/coastal threat since guidance is converging on a suppressive height field from the Lakes Region to NYS. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

yea, it will be even further east this run by the looks of it. At this point, just hoping for a couple inches between saturday and sunday and that seems very doable. don't need a blockbuster which was never on the table save a few GFS runs.

Ai gfs is still nice.

Cmc still showing a few inches

[eduggs]

I still think Sat. has sneaky potential. Models have been moving the area of precipitation around a lot so it's hard to pin down. But up to a localized 0.3" liquid has been popping up across guidance for a few days now over only a 6 hour period. With low expectations and most people looking to Sunday, that could spell a surprise for some. I'd guess somewhere in CT but really anywhere is possible. It will probably be somewhat localized. Coastal areas are less likely Saturday unless it's before sunrise. 

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There's still a good chance this hits coastal NJ to LI pretty solidly. The GFS-AI still has half an inch of liquid in those areas. The GFS will probably bounce back west a bit at some point.

There is synoptically a lot of room for this to come west. Jan 11/12 2006 always comes to mind with these types of setups. But I expect this will stay a scraper/coastal threat since guidance is converging on a suppressive height field from the Lakes Region to NYS. 

Was jan 14th-15th 2006

Snow storm, January 14-15, 2006 - Storm Summary

Plus that setup wasn't the same as this one

Snow storm, January 14-15, 2006 - Surface Maps

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

There is a 1% chance euro is not OTS. Thread done.

Then stop posting.

[EastonSN+]

Cmc last model standing

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Cmc last model standing

Ai gfs also and rgem

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

GFS officially has nothing for Sunday. It joins almost all other model guidance aside from RGEM and AI-GFS in having snow offshore, but nothing for our area. If Euro follows suit at 12z, that's the nail in the coffin

Its only Thursday. 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Was jan 14th-15th 2006

Snow storm, January 14-15, 2006 - Storm Summary

Thanks for catching my error. I actually meant February 11/12, 2006. This was modeled to be a scraper until 2 or 3 days out. It trended NW viciously in the short term and localized mesoscale banding made for a memorable event in NYC/Westchester, and SWCT.

[eduggs]

CMC is many many hours of mostly light snow on Saturday and Sunday. I think that would be a glorious outcome. I would prefer that to 10" of snow that falls from 11pm to 5am overnight on a work day.

[eduggs]

EPS has been very stable for a full 24 hours. The spread is not that large either. I don't expect a big shift at 12z. But it could still shift tonight or tomorrow. A minor model error in a shortwave in northern Canada today can have a big impact on the height field on Sunday. Trofs that touch the Gulf can morph quickly. I usually look at the NAM for short term (<48 hours) trends with these types of events.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Ideally you don't want multiple shortwaves stacked such that the northerly ones are displaced right of the trof axis like the entire thing is toppling over. That inhibits neutral/negative tilting of the trof. Or more precisely it indicates that the overall flow isn't conducive to negative tilting. The RGEM isn't a bad run - we're still in the game - but it has clear flaws.

Looks like strung out crap, not consolidated. Hopefully there’s some light snow from that but that’s what we’ve been getting over and over again the last few winters. 

[Krs4Lfe]

CMC has light snow for most (moderate snow for east new england)

ICON has light snow (moderate snow for east new england)

GFS has snow off shore 

Just waiting on UKMET and Euro

[Krs4Lfe]

UKMET is completely strung out for Sunday. Has nothing for us. Has 1-2" for most of us for Saturday but temps look like low-mid 30s so I doubt any of that is actually accumulating. 

 

Now we are down to the Euro. 

 

[NEG NAO]

39 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Thanks for catching my error. I actually meant February 11/12, 2006. This was modeled to be a scraper until 2 or 3 days out. It trended NW viciously in the short term and localized mesoscale banding made for a memorable event in NYC/Westchester, and SWCT.

ok- here it is

Snow storm, February 11-12, 2006 - Storm Summary

BUT the key ingredient is missing this time around the SE Canadian HP - and there was no lp over Great Lakes

Snow storm, February 11-12, 2006 - Surface Maps

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

UKMET is completely strung out for Sunday. Has nothing for us. Has 1-2" for most of us for Saturday but temps look like low-mid 30s so I doubt any of that is actually accumulating. 

 

Now we are down to the Euro. 

 

The UK is at or below freezing for all except LI during Saturday's snow. It looks nice actually. A proper snowy weekend day. Surface temperatures near the City warm slightly above freezing after the precipitation ends.

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

ok- here it is

Snow storm, February 11-12, 2006 - Storm Summary

BUT the key ingredient is missing this time around the SE Canadian HP - and there was no lp over Great Lakes

Snow storm, February 11-12, 2006 - Surface Maps

Thanks. I'm not saying it's an analogue. NYC isn't going to break its all-time snowfall record Sunday night. Yes the synoptics are broadly similar, but the similarity I want to highlight is that 3 days before that event, it was written off as an OTC solution.

[MJO812]

Wow Euro AI is a nice hit for the coast 

[Tar Heel Snow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow Euro AI is a nice hit for the coast 

Big time, came in west downstream too. That's a terrific sign for that model, which has been otherwise rock-steady

[SACRUS]

 

Models one way the other models the other way

 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Euro has completely nothing. Even more strung out and positively tilted.

 

GFS-AI and Euro AI show light snowfall for most with moderate totals out east and northeast

CMC has light-moderate snow too. 

 

Which camp do we follow: AI models and CMC? 

or everything else ?

This threat is done. Time to move on. Enjoy the light snows on Saturday.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

This threat is done. Time to move on. Enjoy the light snows on Saturday.

You can move on. No one is stopping you.

[psv88]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You can move on. No one is stopping you.

Never change. I dont see how you do this storm after storm and never learn. Good luck chasing the ghost bud

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Never change. I dont see how you do this storm after storm and never learn. Good luck chasing the ghost bud

Thanks 

[Santa Claus]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Models one way the other models the other way

 

looks like someone we know

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Euro has completely nothing. Even more strung out and positively tilted.

 

GFS-AI and Euro AI show light snowfall for most with moderate totals out east and northeast

CMC has light-moderate snow too. 

 

Which camp do we follow: AI models and CMC? 

or everything else ?

Euro op, and every other physics based model except Canadian