Storm potential January 17th-18th

[Prue11]

FWIW noaa has me for 1-3” Sunday. East central Suffolk 

[IrishRob17]

9 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

WWA here.

I got you all beat. I never seen this before - ever.


.

The Advisory explains the reasoning for the wide range.

[sussexcountyobs]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The NWS is focused on the threat for Saturday with the advisories that have just been issued.  Model support for the Saturday event is greater than the potential one for Sunday.

That's exactly my point Tat. Seems like on here all the focus is on Sunday for whatever reason?

[ForestHillWx]

Town rec cancelled the kids b-ball tomorrow as they won’t open the school gym. Weak sauce. 

[BoulderWX]

Just now, ForestHillWx said:

Town rec cancelled the kids b-ball tomorrow as they won’t open the school gym. Weak sauce. 

Same here neighbor! Insane 

[Prue11]

10 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's exactly my point Tat. Seems like on here all the focus is on Sunday for whatever reason?

The reason I’m focused on Sunday is because it seems to have greater potential for my area. Doesn’t look like much accumulation or possibly all rain for me in Suffolk county LI

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

The reason I’m focused on Sunday is because it seems to have greater potential for my area. Doesn’t look like much accumulation or possibly all rain for me in Suffolk county LI

You saying rain for Sunday or Saturday Im guessing you're talking about 2 things at the same time? 

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's exactly my point Tat. Seems like on here all the focus is on Sunday for whatever reason?

Many of the posters on here live near the coast.  The event for tomorrow will primarily affect interior areas.  The one for Sunday if it happens will be a coastal event.

[MANDA]

15 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Town rec cancelled the kids b-ball tomorrow as they won’t open the school gym. Weak sauce. 

Cream puff mentality.  So sad.

[Prue11]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

You saying rain for Sunday or Saturday Im guessing you're talking about 2 things at the same time? 

Rain Saturday. Sunday looks to the better of the two events for us. Far eastern areas coulD see some mixing Sunday as of now but lets hope things change for the better 

[binbisso]

Hrrr juiced for tomorrow. Could be warning level snows for western nj

 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Hrrr juiced for tomorrow. Could be warning level snows for western nj

It looks like it comes is 2 waves, with the front buckling north and then back south. Most of the predawn stuff should be snow. If precip. shuts off - and esp if the sun comes out briefly, surface temperatures are likely to spike. Whoever get into the banding the longest could get some decent snow.

[binbisso]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It looks like it comes is 2 waves, with the front buckling north and then back south. Most of the predawn stuff should be snow. If precip. shuts off - and esp if the sun comes out briefly, surface temperatures are likely to spike. Whoever get into the banding the longest could get some decent snow.

Yea hard to pinpoint where the best banding will be. Anything that falls before dawn should stick especially on colder surfaces even in the city as we were well below freezing last night and ground is frozen 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

39 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Hrrr juiced for tomorrow. Could be warning level snows for western nj

 

 

Nice look for the HV too. Should be all snow here.

[snywx]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Winter weather advisory for Orange and Putnam counties tomorrow and western Passaic for 2-4 inches of snow.

Caught me completely off guard when I got the notification. Haven't been paying attention to anything weather related the past 10 days. Looking like a general 3-4" possibly iso 5-6" in & around Orange County. Sunday/Monday looks like a non event, maybe some lgt accumulation along the immediate coast/ E LI 

[mob1]

NAM is terrible for Sunday. Looks like NW areas get hit pretty good on Saturday and Sunday is a miss.

 

Ah well, at least someone should getting some snow on Saturday. 

[the_other_guy]

This forum is talking itself into not one, but two accumulating events this weekend.

Ill go out on a limb (and it isnt much of a limb) and say NYC will get exactly zero accumulating snow this weekend.

The first storm will need elevation and cold.

The second storm is the same grazer it has been for days.

[RU848789]

Updated NWS-Philly map for both storms: 1-2" just a few miles NW of 95 and 2-4"N of 78 and W of the Parkway, roughly on Sat.  Guessing 1-2" worth of snow along 95, but most of that will melt - maybe a slushy inch on colder surfaces unless we get HRRR style rates.  And 1-2" for the coast to 95 on Sunday, for now - if the Euro makes another move NW, they'll up those forecasts for Sunday, IMO.  Looks like a fun 2 days ahead...

 

 

 

 

 

[Nibor]

12 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This forum is talking itself into not one, but two accumulating events this weekend.

Ill go out on a limb (and it isnt much of a limb) and say NYC will get exactly zero accumulating snow this weekend.

The first storm will need elevation and cold.

The second storm is the same grazer it has been for days.

And what about the forum members not immediately in NYC? Does eastern LI and north west areas not exist?

[Franklin0529]

21 minutes ago, mob1 said:

NAM is terrible for Sunday. Looks like NW areas get hit pretty good on Saturday and Sunday is a miss.

 

Ah well, at least someone should getting some snow on Saturday. 

I wouldn't say terrible. It made a pretty good jump nw

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, mob1 said:

NAM is terrible for Sunday. Looks like NW areas get hit pretty good on Saturday and Sunday is a miss.

 

Ah well, at least someone should getting some snow on Saturday. 

It's well west. Its correcting .

[mob1]

12 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I wouldn't say terrible. It made a pretty good jump nw

I meant the outcome. It's getting really close to the event to hope for additional noteworthy shifts, but I guess anything is possible. 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's well west. Its correcting .

temps are marginal sunday and the precip off the coast is only .1 or .2--the heaviest is well east of that.      Verbatim that's more white rain

[Brian5671]

These AI models getting folks hope up are not proven either....

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

temps are marginal sunday and the precip off the coast is only .1 or .2--the heaviest is well east of that.      Verbatim that's more white rain

Yea temps Sunday way too warm. The threat is cooked, has been for days 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Yea temps Sunday way too warm. The threat is cooked, has been for days 

NYC will have 0 accumulating snow this weekend. Some light white rain tomorrow and maybe a dusting from the whiff on Sunday.

we’re out of time

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Town rec cancelled the kids b-ball tomorrow as they won’t open the school gym. Weak sauce. 

for 1-2 inches of snow lol

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NYC will have 0 accumulating snow this weekend. Some light white rain tomorrow and maybe a dusting from the whiff on Sunday.

we’re out of time

Out of time for what? 

[the_other_guy]

37 minutes ago, Nibor said:

And what about the forum members not immediately in NYC? Does eastern LI and north west areas not exist?

absolutely. Im in one of those areas.

But most people in this forum are getting zero accumulating snow.

 

And then we read about bad models. No. Just wishcasting.

 

First storm is an elevation storm.

Second storm is in the same spot it has been for days. Offshore.

[ForestHillWx]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

for 1-2 inches of snow lol

My guess it’s more so the town paying OT to plow/salt the lot; but the point remains.