January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[T. August]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Correct, tomorrow favors us in the NW, Sunday favors your folks bay and east. 

Then there’s between the 2… 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

Then there’s between the 2… 

You're in on it for Sunday on the AI guidance. Hopefully the op runs keep ticking NW/expanding the precip field the next few cycles.

[T. August]

Just now, CAPE said:

You're in on it for Sunday on the AI guidance. Hopefully the op runs keep ticking NW/expanding the the precip field the next few cycles.

Appreciate it, honestly I haven’t been looking too hard - just doing a little light complaining lol. I would def be happy with a half inch.

[Ellinwood]

First crack at Sunday... went pretty aggressive with a strong lean on the Euro+GFS AI guidance given how crazy consistent they've been with the track+QPF, with much less consistency among the traditional models. Southern and eastern areas dealing with some surface temp issues while western edge could change drastically if the system ends up weaker/more progressive than my forecast. Lower than normal confidence with this map.

[AlexD1990]

11 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

First crack at Sunday... went pretty aggressive with a strong lean on the Euro+GFS AI guidance given how crazy consistent they've been with the track+QPF, with much less consistency among the traditional models. Southern and eastern areas dealing with some surface temp issues while western edge could change drastically if the system ends up weaker/more progressive than my forecast. Lower than normal confidence with this map.

blued!!!!! yesssssss

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

First crack at Sunday... went pretty aggressive with a strong lean on the Euro+GFS AI guidance given how crazy consistent they've been with the track+QPF, with much less consistency among the traditional models. Southern and eastern areas dealing with some surface temp issues while western edge could change drastically if the system ends up weaker/more progressive than my forecast. Lower than normal confidence with this map.

Your blue line cut my Baltimore street in half 

[TSSN+]

Nam def made a significant jump west. Not good enough yet but almost there 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WxUSAF]

Slight westward adjustment in the NAM 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Slight westward adjustment in the NAM 

Oh boy...models might be coughing up a furball on this one, lol

[psuhoffman]

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

except the tragedy of Zippo white

[ravensrule]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

1-2” would make me ecstatic. 

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

I’m out in ellinwood white land so I would disagree 

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

First time I’ve ever been excited to be in that zone 

[mitchnick]

Flurries imby fwiw

[Eskimo Joe]

Alright kids, 00z is where we put all our chips in

 

 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Flurries imby fwiw

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