January Banter 2026

[North Balti Zen]

@bncho

Please do not misintpret the requests in the main thread - that's something that we all try to do when we get close to legit events - staying out of the way of whoever is doing the main PBP - it helps readability as it unfolds. Doesn't mean you should not literally do what you did - which is watch it unfold and make notes about what you may or may not agree with in the PBP's narration - just hold those thoughts until the run passes the point of interest.

That said, your entry on the board has been delightful and I am glad (as are most I would hope) you are here and feel at home sharing your love of weather/snow with the rest of us weather lunatics.  Also, your understanding of the maps is pretty damn impressive for anyone, much less a pre-college student. 

[catoctin wx]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

List of people who should do pbp in order from best to worst.  

Randy, North Arl, Snowen, some others that aren't bad, chatgpt, a jellyfish, me.  Right now bncho is like Sam Darnold on the Jets.  A couple more years and he can be like Seattle. 

[North Balti Zen]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

List of people who should do pbp in order from best to worst.  

Randy, North Arl, Snowen, some others that aren't bad, chatgpt, a jellyfish, me.  Right now bncho is like Sam Darnold on the Jets.  A couple more years and he can be like Seattle. 

...you, then one-celled organisms, then Chuck, then primordial ooze, then me. 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

@bncho

Please do not misintpret the requests in the main thread - that's something that we all try to do when we get close to legit events - staying out of the way of whoever is doing the main PBP - it helps readability as it unfolds. Doesn't mean you should not literally do what you did - which is watch it unfold and make notes about what you may or may not agree with in the PBP's narration - just hold those thoughts until the run passes the point of interest.

That said, your entry on the board has been delightful and I am glad (as are most I would hope) you are here and feel at home sharing your love of weather/snow with the rest of us weather lunatics.  Also, your understanding of the maps is pretty damn impressive for anyone, much less a pre-college student. 

This is incredibly eloquent and well-written. As always, @North Balti Zen - great post! 

I think @bncho's ceiling is certainly so much higher than folks like me - just gotta get past the "growing pains" part of an AmericanWx user/weather enthusiast  

[North Balti Zen]

Sweet bleeding deities - A SINGLE RUN of one model is NOT a trend. 

 

On top of those invoking the waking horror of the 0z runs --those were around a foot encapsulated in sleet to keep us all in a skating rink for weeks - which omg would be SO welcome up in central northern maryland given the snow desert we've been in for about a decade so not a horror - in between the 6z runs pulled back from that to a much cleaner heavy snow set of scenarios and then GFS that JUST RAN was not that either and was textbook cold smoke. So, then the CMC comes along, always our most amped model (do we not remember such things year over year - a few years back it gave us 60 inches at one point six days out which was beyond hilarious for something that didn't even turn into a storm) - and it is, dear lord, shocking super amped, and we still even on that one get 6-12" before glaciating it in ice and it is a trend? 

I am a simple and dumb person, really, when it comes to atmospheric physics and fluid dynamics, but IF the high is what it is supposed to be, there is only so far north this can drive even with help from whatever ridging the CMC is showing back west to allow this - so...

tl/dr putonbigpersonpants, certain people.

 

[H2O]

Fuck it man.  Its over.  We have one run, it will be 50s tomorrow, the Pats will get into the SB, my turkey sandwich was dry, a squirrel is staring at me suspiciously.  Bring on spring.  

[mattie g]

41 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I don't think we will ever have a true solution for model run PBP organization. The solutions are either too strict or too loose. It's too hard to find a middle ground. On one side, I'd LOVE during storm times to see model PBP restricted to a group of like 10 perhaps trusted people (and have red taggers exempt from any restrictions, of course). That probably won't work though...

I'm all for encouraging a friendly environment - but there seems to be this sense that the youngsters feel they need to post as much as possible when they are excited to inflate their post counts. Quality over quantity folks! Being first doesn't get you extra credit or anything. 

Like I've said before...I was in your shoes before too...a lot of us were, in fact. But you've just got to reign it in a bit. 
 

@DDweatherman - I was in no way, shape or form "blasting teenagers" by the way. But there is a recurring theme going on and for those of us that ARE standing on the sidelines reading - it really, really, really clutters the main thread. I know you know that you and I were BOTH guilty of being kids in the past. But perhaps you and I have taken different approaches to this. Not saying one way is better than others - but as a POSTER, I all but try to disappear in the winter unless I'm posting obs during the storm. Posting fast and furiously and bantering in the storm thread is contributing nothing if it's lacking in quality. 

Haven't we had situations in the past where we spit things into one model/technical discussion thread and one general discussion/banterish thread for a storm? I might be hallucinating that though.

I also don't quite think a teenager is being put on blast Just a feeling.

[WxUSAF]

Kuchie my Ukie baby!

[Kmlwx]

15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sweet bleeding deities - A SINGLE RUN of one model is NOT a trend. 

 

On top of those invoking the waking horror of the 0z runs --those were around a foot encapsulated in sleet to keep us all in a skating rink for weeks - which omg would be SO welcome up in central northern maryland given the snow desert we've been in for about a decade so not a horror - in between the 6z runs pulled back from that to a much cleaner heavy snow set of scenarios and then GFS that JUST RAN was not that either and was textbook cold smoke. So, then the CMC comes along, always our most amped model (do we not remember such things year over year - a few years back it gave us 60 inches at one point six days out which was beyond hilarious for something that didn't even turn into a storm) - and it is, dear lord, shocking super amped, and we still even on that one get 6-12" before glaciating it in ice and it is a trend? 

I am a simple and dumb person, really, when it comes to atmospheric physics and fluid dynamics, but IF the high is what it is supposed to be, there is only so far north this can drive even with help from whatever ridging the CMC is showing back west to allow this - so...

tl/dr putonbigpersonpants, certain people.

 

"The trend is really alarming for MBY" "Hate to see this" "It's trending so bad for MBY"

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Haven't we had situations in the past where we spit things into one model/technical discussion thread and one general discussion/banterish thread for a storm? I might be hallucinating that though.

I also don't quite think a teenager is being put on blast Just a feeling.

I think you are right - though we haven't necessarily done that in a while. And there will always be those that just ignore the separated threads anyway. Every now and then I think some folks on here want to treat it more as a fast-paced Discord server rather than a message board/forum. 

[stormtracker]

41 minutes ago, H2O said:

List of people who should do pbp in order from best to worst.  

Randy, North Arl, Snowen, some others that aren't bad, chatgpt, a jellyfish, me.  Right now bncho is like Sam Darnold on the Jets.  A couple more years and he can be like Seattle. 

I'm really not that good.  I just know how to barely interpret a map and try not to let emotions make me bust out with OMG!  WOW!  NUKE based on one panel.

[North Balti Zen]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Kuchie my Ukie baby!

AMITAKINGCRAZYPILLS? DOWELIVEINTUGHILLNOW?

Sorry for shouting - but - holy hell -people losing their shit over a run that drops 12-16" on us. 

What even is reality, really? 

[stormtracker]

40 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

@bncho

Please do not misintpret the requests in the main thread - that's something that we all try to do when we get close to legit events - staying out of the way of whoever is doing the main PBP - it helps readability as it unfolds. Doesn't mean you should not literally do what you did - which is watch it unfold and make notes about what you may or may not agree with in the PBP's narration - just hold those thoughts until the run passes the point of interest.

That said, your entry on the board has been delightful and I am glad (as are most I would hope) you are here and feel at home sharing your love of weather/snow with the rest of us weather lunatics.  Also, your understanding of the maps is pretty damn impressive for anyone, much less a pre-college student. 

 

This was a really good post and I wasn't trying to be mean to your son.  I swear.   Folks are honestly trying to help him on his way.   He's gonna level up to snowen level at some point.

[AdamHLG]

If you're bored waiting for the King, take a look in the other thread for NEXT weekend.

 

[Rhino16]

I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up as 4” otg in my yard after rain/sleet/compaction etc. I’m probably in the worst place possible moreso than Richmond even.

edit: Don’t forget to have a laugh at the temperature plots for after the storm on the GFS.

[North Balti Zen]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

This was a really good post and I wasn't trying to be mean to your son.  I swear.   Folks are honestly trying to help him on his way.   He's gonna level up to snowen level at some point.

lol - MY kids - both now in their 20s - neither of them give a shit about weather. They are probably not even mine, now that I think about it...

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

lol - MY kids - both now in their 20s - neither of them give a shit about weather. They are probably not even mine, now that I think about it...

lol'd for real

[aldie 22]

something is starting to feel a bit off about this storm...a little pit has formed in my stomach

[pazzo83]

yells out to no one in particular: "whose damn kids are these anyway??"

[pazzo83]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

something is starting to feel a bit off about this storm...a little pit has formed in my stomach

ah yes - those of us who have lived through myriad disappointments in our region - we know this feeling.

[pazzo83]

Just now, Ji said:

is euro delayed again? WHen does it start usually?

 

the guys that run the Euro are stuck at Trump's speech in Davos

[catoctin wx]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

ah yes - those of us who have lived through myriad disappointments in our region - we know this feeling.

My SIL texted me this morning to ask about how much they will get (along the PA/MD border).  I told her a range but that everyone around here is trying to manage expectations since we have all been tricked and disappointed by snow forecasts over the last decade

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

ah yes - those of us who have lived through myriad disappointments in our region - we know this feeling.

The warning shots are being fired we all know that...at first they were little pellets but now they are cannon balls. Be prepared for some gut wrenching runs coming up i think

[WesternFringe]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Late ECMWF DataSubscribe

Investigating - We currently see no 12z data queued or being disseminated from ECMWF. We will process data as soon as they provide it.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:29 EST

This storm broke the Euro!

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Late ECMWF DataSubscribe

Investigating - We currently see no 12z data queued or being disseminated from ECMWF. We will process data as soon as they provide it.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:29 EST

I blame JI 

[Weather Will]

Time to write: ECMWF’s new Director-General, Florian Pappenberger, says collaboration and innovation, with people at the core, are key to the Centre’s success.

Florian Pappenberger took up his new role as Director-General on 1 January 2026, following four years as Deputy Director-General and almost a decade leading the Centre’s forecasting operations.

[Amped]

It can't show a bust if it doesn't run.

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Late ECMWF DataSubscribe

Investigating - We currently see no 12z data queued or being disseminated from ECMWF. We will process data as soon as they provide it.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:29 EST

It was too good to share. Sad!

[North Balti Zen]

It's like the GFS took the criticisms from the last few years about its ensembles too much following the OP and was like, "fine, watch this"...

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Late ECMWF DataSubscribe

Investigating - We currently see no 12z data queued or being disseminated from ECMWF. We will process data as soon as they provide it.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:29 EST

Let the f*ckery begin