January Banter 2026

[George BM]

Sunday, January 18, 2026 8:58AM EST

Shallow layer of very cold air will continue to undercut the warm/moist environment overhead. As temperatures fall into the lower 20s as we go through the morning, showers and thunderstorms will begin to overspread the region owing to an approaching shortwave with decent elevated CAPE (MUCAPE 250-500+ J/kg). As this elevated convection overspreads the region torrential rain falling into the lower 20s surface temps will efficiently freeze on all untreated surfaces allowing for significant icing.

Freezing showers and thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon. Precip will change over from freezing rain to sleet from NNW to SSE as the sub-freezing layer becomes deeper allowing for upwards of 2 to 4 inches of sleet on top of the significant ½” to 1” of ice accretion. The ice accretion itself will lead to widespread power outages. Temps will fall into the teens as we go through the afternoon and into the evening. There will be a lull in the precip by the mid evening hours as the first shortwave moves to the ENE. But the next one will be right on its heels.

The second and more life-threatening shortwave will approach the region by the early morning hours of Monday. Precip will overspread the region from SW to NE between 4am and 8am starting off as snow briefly along and north of I-66 and Route 50 before changing over to sleet as we go through the morning hours. Once again, elevated instability will be plentiful owing to unusually warm and humid air over the SE US overrunning the very cold lower-levels of the atmosphere here w/ MUCAPE upwards of 500+ J/kg again. As we reach the early afternoon hours showers and thunderstorms will really start training over the same areas, generally the Greater DC and Baltimore metros. Surface temps will rise into the 19-23F range. But with very warm air just of the surface, precip will change over into freezing rain. This is when the truly historic destruction may occur with ice accretion rates in excess of ¼ to ½” per hour over the course of the afternoon into the evening. By nightfall, many areas may have received an additional 1.5” to 3” of ice accretion leading to universal power outages and tree damage with many structures also experiencing significant damage.

Precip will exit the region by midnight with skies remaining overcast as we go towards dawn on Tuesday.

This will be a historic and life-threatening event that will affect many aspects of life locally over the next several days or few weeks.

[wxdude64]

Nice write-up @George BM, but I'll 100% pass on ever wanting that to happen. That WOULD be catastrophic, to sat the least. 

[Rhino16]

I ran through an 18” drift and exhausted myself but it was worth it

[WxWatcher007]

Happy New Year!

[Maestrobjwa]

Happy New Year everyone! Let's remember not to let the weather get us down too much this year--believe it or not there can be other things to look forward to even if things don't go our way  God bless you all!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 hours ago, George BM said:

Sunday, January 18, 2026 8:58AM EST

Shallow layer of very cold air will continue to undercut the warm/moist environment overhead. As temperatures fall into the lower 20s as we go through the morning, showers and thunderstorms will begin to overspread the region owing to an approaching shortwave with decent elevated CAPE (MUCAPE 250-500+ J/kg). As this elevated convection overspreads the region torrential rain falling into the lower 20s surface temps will efficiently freeze on all untreated surfaces allowing for significant icing.

Freezing showers and thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon. Precip will change over from freezing rain to sleet from NNW to SSE as the sub-freezing layer becomes deeper allowing for upwards of 2 to 4 inches of sleet on top of the significant ½” to 1” of ice accretion. The ice accretion itself will lead to widespread power outages. Temps will fall into the teens as we go through the afternoon and into the evening. There will be a lull in the precip by the mid evening hours as the first shortwave moves to the ENE. But the next one will be right on its heels.

The second and more life-threatening shortwave will approach the region by the early morning hours of Monday. Precip will overspread the region from SW to NE between 4am and 8am starting off as snow briefly along and north of I-66 and Route 50 before changing over to sleet as we go through the morning hours. Once again, elevated instability will be plentiful owing to unusually warm and humid air over the SE US overrunning the very cold lower-levels of the atmosphere here w/ MUCAPE upwards of 500+ J/kg again. As we reach the early afternoon hours showers and thunderstorms will really start training over the same areas, generally the Greater DC and Baltimore metros. Surface temps will rise into the 19-23F range. But with very warm air just of the surface, precip will change over into freezing rain. This is when the truly historic destruction may occur with ice accretion rates in excess of ¼ to ½” per hour over the course of the afternoon into the evening. By nightfall, many areas may have received an additional 1.5” to 3” of ice accretion leading to universal power outages and tree damage with many structures also experiencing significant damage.

Precip will exit the region by midnight with skies remaining overcast as we go towards dawn on Tuesday.

This will be a historic and life-threatening event that will affect many aspects of life locally over the next several days or few weeks.

You must have 1994 on your mind!!

Shades of @Bob Chill's total glaciation with a foot of ice!!

[nj2va]

Indiana is carving up Alabama, what a half

[RickinBaltimore]

That was a glorious hate watch.

[wxdude64]

Enjoyable SEC night, I enjoyed every minute. The refs did their best, but could not keep 'Ol Miss from defeating the 'darlings' of the SEC. 

[pazzo83]

6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Enjoyable SEC night, I enjoyed every minute. The refs did their best, but could not keep 'Ol Miss from defeating the 'darlings' of the SEC. 

optimal result IMO.  Alabama gets waxed, Ole Miss wins.  I generally hate the SEC, but the way Kiffin left Ole Miss was horrible.  I hope they are enjoying this.

[wxdude64]

6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Enjoyable SEC night, I enjoyed every minute. The refs did their best, but could not keep 'Ol Miss from defeating the 'darlings' of the SEC. 

I guess that makes the SEC 4-8 in bowls now? A win for 'Ol Miss and a loss for Georgia? Impressive considering they played 2 of the games against EACH OTHER. 

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

optimal result IMO.  Alabama gets waxed, Ole Miss wins.  I generally hate the SEC, but the way Kiffin left Ole Miss was horrible.  I hope they are enjoying this.

Yep, I'm just tickled that the 'upper guard' that the media can't stop drooling over is now out. IMO Alabama should have never made it with 3 losses.

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Yep, I'm just tickled that the 'upper guard' that the media can't stop drooling over is now out. IMO Alabama should have never made it with 3 losses.

Absolutely - way too much benefit given to SEC schools.  Bama got annihilated by Indiana - I think plenty of the top schools of other conferences would've at least put up a better fight (we know for a fact this would've been the case for other Big 10 schools).  Hell - JMU probably puts up more points than Bama lol.  The SEC favoritism - which crept into basketball last season (they are not nearly as strong this year) - is ridiculous.

[RickinBaltimore]

You have Miami, who hasn't won a title since 2002, Ole Miss who's last title was in the 60's, and Indiana and Oregon, both with no titles. It's refreshing to see this.

[adelphi_sky]

Happy New Year weather weenies! 

[RDM]

The banter in the Jan Med/LR thread this morning (and much of the last few days/weeks) is too much.  Wish people would move it here to Banter where it belongs.  It's no wonder why so many red taggers and the more established members of the forum have absconded the last few years.  We've seen the flood of banter in the LR before during times when there's not much to track and run-to-run hope-casting drives the dialogue;  it's getting old (despite the best efforts from the more established members to normalize expectations).  

Been on this forum since nearly day one and was a long timer on Eastern before going back to the late 90's.  The influx of banter in the Med/LR has always been a challenge, but it's much worse in recent years (as others have commented about on why they no longer post much).  Maybe that's the result of the explosion of social media where the trend today is to type and send before thinking.  There's so many posts that people unleash in a knee-jerk reaction that should be considered for a while and then deleted; as some have commented about doing themselves (for those who exercise good self-moderation, hats off!)  

Again, the focus is on the smut in the LR page.  Many of the newer posters need to either post their banter here or read more and post less in the LR page.  We all want snow, but the other junk is getting old. 

 

  

[nj2va]

12 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

optimal result IMO.  Alabama gets waxed, Ole Miss wins.  I generally hate the SEC, but the way Kiffin left Ole Miss was horrible.  I hope they are enjoying this.

Kiffin is enjoying it too - think he got a $500k bonus from last night’s win lol

[pazzo83]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Kiffin is enjoying it too - think he got a $500k bonus from last night’s win lol

lol unreal

[gopper]

3 hours ago, RDM said:

The banter in the Jan Med/LR thread this morning (and much of the last few days/weeks) is too much.  Wish people would move it here to Banter where it belongs.  It's no wonder why so many red taggers and the more established members of the forum have absconded the last few years.  We've seen the flood of banter in the LR before during times when there's not much to track and run-to-run hope-casting drives the dialogue;  it's getting old (despite the best efforts from the more established members to normalize expectations).  

Been on this forum since nearly day one and was a long timer on Eastern before going back to the late 90's.  The influx of banter in the Med/LR has always been a challenge, but it's much worse in recent years (as others have commented about on why they no longer post much).  Maybe that's the result of the explosion of social media where the trend today is to type and send before thinking.  There's so many posts that people unleash in a knee-jerk reaction that should be considered for a while and then deleted; as some have commented about doing themselves (for those who exercise good self-moderation, hats off!)  

Again, the focus is on the smut in the LR page.  Many of the newer posters need to either post their banter here or read more and post less in the LR page.  We all want snow, but the other junk is getting old. 

 

  

Agree with the bolded 100%

I guess when the snow prospects go down the toilet, the only game in town is to watch the cats fight.

Aldo 04 is an instigator 

[Jebman]

On 12/31/2025 at 7:51 PM, George BM said:

Sunday, January 18, 2026 8:58AM EST

Shallow layer of very cold air will continue to undercut the warm/moist environment overhead. As temperatures fall into the lower 20s as we go through the morning, showers and thunderstorms will begin to overspread the region owing to an approaching shortwave with decent elevated CAPE (MUCAPE 250-500+ J/kg). As this elevated convection overspreads the region torrential rain falling into the lower 20s surface temps will efficiently freeze on all untreated surfaces allowing for significant icing.

Freezing showers and thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon. Precip will change over from freezing rain to sleet from NNW to SSE as the sub-freezing layer becomes deeper allowing for upwards of 2 to 4 inches of sleet on top of the significant ½” to 1” of ice accretion. The ice accretion itself will lead to widespread power outages. Temps will fall into the teens as we go through the afternoon and into the evening. There will be a lull in the precip by the mid evening hours as the first shortwave moves to the ENE. But the next one will be right on its heels.

The second and more life-threatening shortwave will approach the region by the early morning hours of Monday. Precip will overspread the region from SW to NE between 4am and 8am starting off as snow briefly along and north of I-66 and Route 50 before changing over to sleet as we go through the morning hours. Once again, elevated instability will be plentiful owing to unusually warm and humid air over the SE US overrunning the very cold lower-levels of the atmosphere here w/ MUCAPE upwards of 500+ J/kg again. As we reach the early afternoon hours showers and thunderstorms will really start training over the same areas, generally the Greater DC and Baltimore metros. Surface temps will rise into the 19-23F range. But with very warm air just of the surface, precip will change over into freezing rain. This is when the truly historic destruction may occur with ice accretion rates in excess of ¼ to ½” per hour over the course of the afternoon into the evening. By nightfall, many areas may have received an additional 1.5” to 3” of ice accretion leading to universal power outages and tree damage with many structures also experiencing significant damage.

Precip will exit the region by midnight with skies remaining overcast as we go towards dawn on Tuesday.

This will be a historic and life-threatening event that will affect many aspects of life locally over the next several days or few weeks.

Wow George BM GREAT WRITE UP! Happy New Year!