winter_warlock Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Closer Alot closer and we're still over 100 hours away so we got time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The Canadian missed amplifying by like 75 miles. It is close as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 If the King is back west at 12z this board will get silly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 42 minutes ago, bncho said: 12Z GFS/AIGFS: 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Whatever the gfs shows the other models show the opposite lol. Gfs was showing a miss, cmc and euro showed a hit, gfs shifts to a hit the other models move away. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: Congrats cape charles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ok... I am moving back home to St. Mary's county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 this gives me hope in this forum 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I think the AFD is by far the best and most succent analysis of this setup possible: KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system this weekend. Very favorable storm patten in terms of analogs for big snows in the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge, blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive pattern. Guidance continues to show a Miller A type Nor`easter (it has been a while for one to form, let alone show up in model guidance). While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as indicated by the latest 00Z guidance and ensembles. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm comes to fruition or not and impacts land. Regardless, expect fluctuations over the next day or two until the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore across the western US. "there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as..." Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: skirts out to see I'm just willingly and for no good reason going to assume that this typo in their AFD means this thing is going to be something to see. But as for the run-to-run noise - they call it thread the needle for a reason. This is a high stakes game right here. One 50-75 mile line is going to win huge if anyone wins at all. I ran the die roll last night - 18 - I think we got a good shot at this. Keep up the spirits and don't let a single run get you down. You're going to see fluctuations. All that matters is where the storm actually goes in the end. But I do think if that line in the GFS that gave 48" of snow to Salisbury comes north a hundred miles the board will probably crash lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Weenie handbook states that the gfs is the best model with the northern stream in the mid range 11 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: The difference between the Canadian and the GFS at this lead time is very small. It’s just that small difference makes a big difference for us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The AI Euro and GFS are remarkably similar at h500 and also precip extent. Comparing them to the 6z Euro indicates that, while an amped solution isn't expected or even likely, the 6z Euro is likely an outlier in how disorganized it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: The difference between the Canadian and the GFS at this lead time is very small. It’s just that small difference makes a big difference for us lol. True, and euro has a bigger difference. Very low confidence situation, but if I were a betting man, I think GFS will eventually cave to Euro 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Thewiledcard said: Congrats cape charles? What's the latest from Uccellini? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 UKIE is going to be significantly east of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Ukie on the road to a total miss unless that trough has a miracle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, IronTy said: What's the latest from Uccellini? Haven't seen him walking around the building this week, I think he's at AMS in Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, wxmeddler said: Haven't seen him in a bit, I think he's at AMS in Houston this week. Congrats Houston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 27 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: The wind is something else as well And it's the one thing that'll verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12z AIGFS didn’t quite get it done but trough appears to tilt negative sooner. The smarter folks can comment but have to imagine that was a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: Haven't seen him walking around the building this week, I think he's at AMS in Houston. "I'd rather be in Houston" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weenie handbook states that the gfs is the best model with the northern stream in the mid range i said that a few hours ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Appears to be a kicker coming down near the Dakotas and the Gfs has it further north into Canada, the Gem further south, and the Ukie the furthest south. It's killing the ridge orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I don’t have high hopes for this one but, the energy for it is still up in no where land Canada so I’d give it another 24hrs or so to move into better sampling before totally pulling the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, mitchnick said: Appears to be a kicker coming down near the Dakotas and the Gfs has it further north into Canada, the Gem further south, and the Ukie the furthest south. It's killing the ridge. Of course. I don’t think that it would be a hit without but our luck with kicker energies appearing is tremendously poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Looking at the AIGFS the past 3 runs we are seeing a west trend.....it isnt major shifts run to run but 50 or so miles which if this continues a couple more runs will have major impacts for anyone not directly on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: I'm just willingly and for no good reason going to assume that this typo in their AFD means this thing is going to be something to see. But as for the run-to-run noise - they call it thread the needle for a reason. This is a high stakes game right here. One 50-75 mile line is going to win huge if anyone wins at all. I ran the die roll last night - 18 - I think we got a good shot at this. Keep up the spirits and don't let a single run get you down. You're going to see fluctuations. All that matters is where the storm actually goes in the end. But I do think if that line in the GFS that gave 48" of snow to Salisbury comes north a hundred miles the board will probably crash lol. These are global models so the fact that they showed a storm 7 days out that it got right within 100 miles is extremely impressive and a job well done even if we don’t get our desired result. For hurricanes the forecast cone 4 days out is hundreds of miles and we just accept the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I don’t have high hopes for this one but, the energy for it is still up in no where land Canada so I’d give it another 24hrs or so to move into better sampling before totally pulling the plug. Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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