January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

Monitoring for a big dog the last week of January.  WB 6Z AI EPS.  All of this prob. for more than 6 inches is beyond Day 10.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z euro continued inching westward. Maybe snow to @CAPE’s house? But we still need quite a bit more.

Yeah its a small tick NW, probably run-to run noise.

Something needs to change with the energy dropping southward and how it interacts with the main shortwave. Need it to phase in behind and not stay separate at this point. GFS looks more like the Euro now.

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The Spire basic is close. Anyone check the Panasonic?

I bet the CRAS mauls us on Sunday. 

[TSSN+]

Nam will probably be like 150 miles nw showing us getting crushed and euro will be over Bermuda. 

[bncho]

FWIW, the NAM looks better than 6z at hr 36

 

[CAPE]

I better get my mind right. I've been told by the man at the top this thing needs to produce.

[Eskimo Joe]

Through HR 42, the NAM appears NW.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Through HR 42, the NAM appears NW.

What’s nw? The storm doesn’t start to develop till like hour 72. The ridge is nw or the trough? 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

What’s nw? The storm doesn’t start to develop till like hour 72. The ridge is nw or the trough? 

Apologies, the development of the mid level trough appears to be NW of 06z.

[TSSN+]

Nam is so slow lol.  Been sitting at hour 45 forever. Damn Atari processor. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Monitoring for a big dog the last week of January.  WB 6Z AI EPS.  All of this prob. for more than 6 inches is beyond Day 10.

Seems to be starting to warm up to that period around Jan 27-29ish I've been gooning about. Not to say thr 24th cant work, but I think that lays the baro zone and gets the cold air established for the followup.

[bncho]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seems to be starting to warm up to that period around Jan 27-29ish I've been gooning about. Not to say thr 24th cant work, but I think that lays the baro zone and gets the cold air established for the followup.

you've been WHAT about?

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

you've been WHAT about?

He's old. Leave him alone.

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

you've been WHAT about?

 @ravensrule

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seems to be starting to warm up to that period around Jan 27-29ish I've been gooning about. Not to say thr 24th cant work, but I think that lays the baro zone and gets the cold air established for the followup.

Sir, this is a Wendy’s. 

[DDweatherman]

A good edge session over the long range ensembles never hurt anyone I suppose. Don’t give ravens that rope. 

[Scraff]

I had to use Chat GPT for the definition of gooning. One version way funnier than the other. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam is so slow lol.  Been sitting at hour 45 forever. Damn Atari processor. 

Somebody forgot to blow on the Cartridge. 

[stormtracker]

So what’s the NAM scuttlebutt.  On the train and can’t really do my thing. 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So what’s the NAM scuttlebutt.  On the train and can’t really do my thing. 

The base is a bit more west but don't love out front of it with the compression of heights through 57.

[soadforecasterx]

 

Still looks to me to be in the GFS camp

[bncho]

NAM better than 6z

[somecallmetim]

2 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Still looks to me to be in the GFS camp

Except the GFS decamped on itself. 

[LP08]

The base of the trough is so much further west than all other guidance at 78.  Toggle compare the runs.  https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/500hv/conus?run=2026011512&forecastHour=75

[mitchnick]

[mob1]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

In the final few frames everything moves NE, it seems like that lakes low acts as a kicker (as opposed some of the crazy GFS runs where it actually phased in and pumped heights out ahead). 

[Interstate]

It is always the Great Lakes Low that screws us.

[mappy]

21 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

A good edge session over the long range ensembles never hurt anyone I suppose. Don’t give ravens that rope. 

Omg stop giving RR ammo yall

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

In the final few frames everything moves NE, it seems like that lakes low acts as a kicker (as opposed some of the crazy GFS runs where it actually phased in and pumped heights out ahead). 

If put in motion, it is clearly being escorted off the coast by another GL low. 

[Ji]

Sir, this is a Wendy’s. 

Perhaps he shouldn’t say warm up in the post either