January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

may be hopium, but I remember bluewave posting a year or so ago a 3-run animation of the Euro that had a 2021 (or 2022? can't remember) storm 1000 miles OTS in one run, and then a NYC bullseye hit 2 runs later. 

Yea, that’s why all the cliff divers have me confused. Is it likely that we get 2 feet of snow, lol no it never is. But when a storm is projected on all the major models under 5 days in our general vicinity (say within a few hundred miles N, S, E or W we track), it’s what we do. And if it keeps trending out to sea over the next 24-36 hours then we move on. 

[Weather Will]

NWS for Saturday night in Frederick area:

Saturday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is

 

DC

Saturday

A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Amped]

Icon isn't any better. It extends further west, but the energy stays strung out instead of forming a closed low.

[Shad]

yea result is even worse that 12z

[Nomz]

Kind of weird. It somewhat splits towards the end of the run which is very unlike what we've seen on other models

[Ephesians2]

the #1 rule of looking at model trends:

The trends I like will continue. The trends I don't like are flukes.

[Ephesians2]

FWIW... the ICON ensemble has a noticeably larger number of lows along the coast compared to 12z. Not sure it follows the op's idea of splitting the energy. 

[Shad]

We will learn alot about the models as to how this plays out

[Franklin0529]

Anyone know if there's any hurricane Hunter planes out there to get better sampling? Like they did with last week. And if so has data been ingested into 18z?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

FWIW... the ICON ensemble has a noticeably larger number of lows along the coast compared to 12z. Not sure it follows the op's idea of splitting the energy. 

Yeah that is a rather noticeable shift

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

FWIW... the ICON ensemble has a noticeably larger number of lows along the coast compared to 12z. Not sure it follows the op's idea of splitting the energy. 

Yeah it has some BIG hits mixed in... 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

FWIW... the ICON ensemble has a noticeably larger number of lows along the coast compared to 12z. Not sure it follows the op's idea of splitting the energy. 

Yeah, looking at the op, I'm not sure why it hesitates for so long before deepening. Doesn't make much sense to me

[RevWarReenactor]

9 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Yea, that’s why all the cliff divers have me confused. Is it likely that we get 2 feet of snow, lol no it never is. But when a storm is projected on all the major models under 5 days in our general vicinity (say within a few hundred miles N, S, E or W we track), it’s what we do. And if it keeps trending out to sea over the next 24-36 hours then we move on. 

I guess because we've seen this story too many times. 99 times out of 100 if a storm is headed OTS on most of the 100hr models, it stays that way. Especially in these type of complex situations. There is a reason why 10 inch snowstorms are being treated by the public as historic now. Because at this point, they are. It just isn't likely. Our climo usually wins despite what the models say. 

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Anyone know if there's any hurricane Hunter planes out there to get better sampling? Like they did with last week. And if so has data been ingested into 18z?

Here we go again...

[snowmagnet]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I guess because we've seen this story too many times. 99 times out of 100 if a storm is headed OTS on most of the 100hr models, it stays that way. Especially in these type of complex situations. There is a reason why 10 inch snowstorms are being treated by the public as historic now. Because at this point, they are. It just isn't likely. Our climo usually wins despite what the models say. 

Except when it doesn’t. 

[IronTy]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

I guess because we've seen this story too many times. 99 times out of 100 if a storm is headed OTS on most of the 100hr models, it stays that way. Especially in these type of complex situations. There is a reason why 10 inch snowstorms are being treated by the public as historic now. Because at this point, they are. It just isn't likely. Our climo usually wins despite what the models say. 

We haven't really had much big snow anywhere in the NE in recent years, or even major cold outbreaks like this so people have probably gotten soft.  At least we don't have major ZOMG POLAR VORTEX BOMB CYCLONE hysteria....yet. 

[Shad]

Based on the ICON ensemble it seems like the Icon doesnt have a handle on this,  lows all over the place with a cluster along the southern new england coast

[Scraff]

Well, it’s just about that time to see what the HH GooFus has been smokin since 12z.  Should be interesting. I’ll crack an RAR Triple IPA to make things interesting too. LFG!! 

[LeesburgWx]

Goofus, Check. ICON ensembles, Check.

[stormtracker]

GFS..complete comical cave or gradual stepbacks?

[Shad]

GFS had over 40" in my backyard on the 12z.  If it shows 0" with the 0z run I think I will step away for a bit.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS..complete comical cave or gradual stepbacks?

West trend.

[Nomz]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS..complete comical cave or gradual stepbacks?

shift west

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Shad said:

Based on the ICON ensemble it seems like the Icon doesnt have a handle on this,  lows all over the place with a cluster along the southern new england coast

We knew that before it ran 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS..complete comical cave or gradual stepbacks?

It’s probably going to show a blizzard up 95 cause why not 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS..complete comical cave or gradual stepbacks?

Gonna show a huge hit and suck us in

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s probably going to show a blizzard up 95 cause why not 

I'll take that bet.

 

 

[stormtracker]

lol, I'd take all of yall's money with this bet

[FatherNature]

GFS has the coastal low over Cheyenne, Wyoming at HR102. 

[CAPE]

Snippet from AFD from Mt Holly. Pretty informative even if we don't see direct impacts from the upcoming coastal storm inland.

The very cold temperatures and bitter wind chills will persist
the remainder of the week and beyond. This will occur due to a
deep upper level trough centered over Eastern Canada with
repeated re-enforcing shots of arctic air swinging in from the
north and west around this feature. For Wednesday night through
Saturday, expect morning low temperatures in the single digits
to negative single digits with each morning actually looking
slightly colder than the previous one due to these re-enforcing
shots of arctic air. More importantly, there will be at least
some winds through most of this period with early morning wind
chills still expected to be sub-zero region wide with negative
teens N/W of the I-95 corridor to even around -20 in the
southern Poconos. Some moderation in temperatures may occur
Sunday into early next week however temperatures still look to
be well below average.

Overall, it is exceedingly rare to get this combination of length
and magnitude of an arctic airmass for this area and it should be
taken seriously for those who have to venture out in the cold for
extended periods of time.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the
east coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast
details remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of
the area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong
winds, and coastal flooding.

Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring
beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly
deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east
Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent
upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long
wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic
zone along the coast.

In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this still hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which remains uncertain at this time.
The latest GFS trended west some and is overall not too
different than the GEM. The latest EC is still farther east than
these models. It is also worth noting that there continues to
be spread in the GFS ensemble members (the GEFS) with the
ensemble mean a bit farther east than the deterministic . So
this all said, it boils down to whether the storm tracks farther
northward along the coast before turning east (bringing the
area greater impacts) vs. being quicker to turn east meaning the
track would stay farther away bringing more limited impacts.
Potential impacts include not just heavy precipitation but also
strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a tight
pressure gradient with a very strong wind field.