January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Closer

Alot closer and we're still over 100 hours away so we got time

[clskinsfan]

The Canadian missed amplifying by like 75 miles. It is close as well. 

[Shad]

If the King is back west at 12z this board will get silly

[csnavywx]

42 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

12Z GFS/AIGFS:

 

[Ephesians2]

[TSSN+]

Whatever the gfs shows the other models show the opposite lol. Gfs was showing a miss, cmc and euro showed a hit, gfs shifts to a hit the other models move away. lol 

[Thewiledcard]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

Congrats cape charles?

[Wxdavis5784]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

Ok... I am moving back home to St. Mary's county...

[bncho]

this gives me hope in this forum

[IronTy]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think the AFD is by far the best and most succent analysis of this setup possible:

KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system
this weekend.

Very favorable storm patten in terms of analogs for big snows in
the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge,
blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east
Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation
of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive
pattern.

Guidance continues to show a Miller A type Nor`easter (it has
been a while for one to form, let alone show up in model
guidance). While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm,
there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as
indicated by the latest 00Z guidance and ensembles. Future runs
will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV
evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm
comes to fruition or not and impacts land.

Regardless, expect fluctuations over the next day or two until
the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore
across the western US.

"there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as..."

 

Hmmmm

[IUsedToHateCold]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

skirts out to see

I'm just willingly and for no good reason going to assume that this typo in their AFD means this thing is going to be something to see. 

But as for the run-to-run noise - they call it thread the needle for a reason. This is a high stakes game right here. One 50-75 mile line is going to win huge if anyone wins at all. I ran the die roll last night - 18 - I think we got a good shot at this. Keep up the spirits and don't let a single run get you down. You're going to see fluctuations. All that matters is where the storm actually goes in the end. 

But I do think if that line in the GFS that gave 48" of snow to Salisbury comes north a hundred miles the board will probably crash lol. 

[Bob Chill]

Weenie handbook states that the gfs is the best model with the northern stream in the mid range

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

The difference between the Canadian and the GFS at this lead time is very small. It’s just that small difference makes a big difference for us lol.

[Cobalt]

The AI Euro and GFS are remarkably similar at h500 and also precip extent. Comparing them to the 6z Euro indicates that, while an amped solution isn't expected or even likely, the 6z Euro is likely an outlier in how disorganized it is. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

The difference between the Canadian and the GFS at this lead time is very small. It’s just that small difference makes a big difference for us lol.

True, and euro has a bigger difference. Very low confidence situation, but if I were a betting man, I think GFS will eventually cave to Euro

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, Thewiledcard said:

Congrats cape charles?

What's the latest from Uccellini?

[clskinsfan]

UKIE is going to be significantly east of the GFS.

[mitchnick]

Ukie on the road to a total miss unless that trough has a miracle.

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

What's the latest from Uccellini?

Haven't seen him walking around the building this week, I think he's at AMS in Houston.

[IronTy]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

Haven't seen him in a bit, I think he's at AMS in Houston this week.

Congrats Houston?

[EastCoast NPZ]

27 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The wind is something else as well

And it's the one thing that'll verify.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

12z AIGFS didn’t quite get it done but trough appears to tilt negative sooner. The smarter folks can comment but have to imagine that was a step in the right direction.

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Haven't seen him walking around the building this week, I think he's at AMS in Houston.

"I'd rather be in Houston"

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weenie handbook states that the gfs is the best model with the northern stream in the mid range

i said that a few hours ago lol

[mitchnick]

Appears to be a kicker coming down near the Dakotas and the Gfs has it further north into Canada, the Gem further south, and the Ukie the furthest south. It's killing the ridge orientation.

[TSSN+]

I don’t have high hopes for this one but, the energy for it is still up in no where land Canada so I’d give it another 24hrs or so to move into better sampling before totally pulling the plug. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Appears to be a kicker coming down near the Dakotas and the Gfs has it further north into Canada, the Gem further south, and the Ukie the furthest south. It's killing the ridge.

Of course. I don’t think that it would be a hit without but our luck with kicker energies appearing is tremendously poor. 

[Shad]

Looking at the AIGFS the past 3 runs we are seeing a west trend.....it isnt major shifts run to run but 50 or so miles which if this continues a couple more runs will have major impacts for anyone not directly on the coast

[rjvanals]

3 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I'm just willingly and for no good reason going to assume that this typo in their AFD means this thing is going to be something to see. 

But as for the run-to-run noise - they call it thread the needle for a reason. This is a high stakes game right here. One 50-75 mile line is going to win huge if anyone wins at all. I ran the die roll last night - 18 - I think we got a good shot at this. Keep up the spirits and don't let a single run get you down. You're going to see fluctuations. All that matters is where the storm actually goes in the end. 

But I do think if that line in the GFS that gave 48" of snow to Salisbury comes north a hundred miles the board will probably crash lol. 

These are global models so the fact that they showed a storm 7 days out that it got right within 100 miles is extremely impressive and a job well done even if we don’t get our desired result. 
 

For hurricanes the forecast cone 4 days out is hundreds of miles and we just accept the uncertainty. 

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I don’t have high hopes for this one but, the energy for it is still up in no where land Canada so I’d give it another 24hrs or so to move into better sampling before totally pulling the plug. 

Thursday