January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DDweatherman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

AI is tasty

Just need a little less positive tilt on the backside. Definitely still in the game. 

[stormtracker]

thisclose

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

thisclose

Liked some of the changes up top vs 12z. We COULD be back at approximately 1225am

[midatlanticweather]

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

thisclose

[Eskimo Joe]

We're like 6 to 12 hours away from a hit when it comes to timing.

[weathervswife]

We in central Va will borrow this for now.  You can have it Thursday.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Also we don’t need it all back in one run, many runs to go.  We’ve seen this before, sniff something out, lose it, trend back to it.  

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, peribonca said:

This past weekend was pretty great everywhere imho

I'm assuming you didn't get 7 hours of cold rain then. we struggled to reach the low end of forecast snowfall ranges, which really hurt especially after the initial projections for it. so yeah, great inst the word is use. ok, maybe.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

We're like 6 to 12 hours away from a hit when it comes to timing.

Ask some of the folks here, no way we can make up that time... 

[Ephesians2]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont know if its a hit but its better. Moderate hit i guess

If that's "not a hit", you all are either pretty spoiled by this last storm or from New England 

[AlexD1990]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

If that's "not a hit", you all are either pretty spoiled by this last storm or from New England 

you didnt know that human civilization ends at the western shore of the Chesapeake?

[LordBaltimore]

just want to see some snow on snow action here. Even if it's a 2-4" type deal

[GreyHat]

43 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Once again the Surface low should be more tucked imo. 

Weaker Storm was modeled 977 and 1006. 

[Kevin Reilly]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

thisclose

You forgot to put a space between this and close when you were typing. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

you didnt know that human civilization ends at the western shore of the Chesapeake?

With Ji, it all begins and ends in Leesburg. Personally, I'm 100% good with the euroAI and I have wiggle room so I'm personally fine with the entire shield shifting 75 miles NW. It's a backyard sport though. If I could lock up the AI run i would. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, LordBaltimore said:

just want to see some snow on snow action here. Even if it's a 2-4" type deal

Yes. Give me enough for snow on snow.

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Is that @stormtrackerboyfriend?. 

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

AI is tasty

As depicted, with the arctic air in place and the fact that we have a closed low, that has potential to be a blizzard for someone near the coast.

[Ji]

[Ephesians2]

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

With Ji, it all begins and ends in Leesburg. Personally, I'm 100% good with the euroAI and I have wiggle room so I'm personally fine with the entire shield shifting 75 miles NW. It's a backyard sport though. If I could lock up the AI run i would. 

Yeah its a hell of a hit to me lol

[Paleocene]

Man, this thing bombs out on the 18z euro (just like the 12z CMC today). 969mb 100 miles east off norfolk

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Ji said:

I really don’t hate this.  At 130 hours this is perfect. 

[jayyy]

If that's "not a hit", you all are either pretty spoiled by this last storm or from New England 

3-6 east of the BR to the metros and south dc gets 8… on top of a 6-9” glacier of snow and sleet. Sounds like an awful run lol

[Ji]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I really don’t hate this.  At 130 hours this is perfect. 

i hate it because there is no blue over my house. This close out i want to be in the bullseye as west as it can possibly be

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

So damn close. Would be devastating if this were verbatim

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I’ll allow it 

[jayyy]

2 feet in ocean city while we smoke cirrus. Sounds like a good spot to be 4.5 days out

PSU gets those hunches and they almost always seem to play out. If the pattern is indeed reloading and that pna backs west on models over the next 24-36 hours like yesterdays storm did at the 4/5 day range… we’re in business.

[overcautionisbad]

This will find a way to miss Richmond I just know it. Oh well, got my nice 5 inch storm back in early December. 3 inches of whatever yesterday was lol

 

And my memory runs together but didnt Central Va get another little like 4 inch snow in early December? Swear there was two