January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JenkinsJinkies]

This one is a long shot.

[overcautionisbad]

54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In this case we're banking on the trough going neutral or barely positive and that progression starts much earlier than Saturday. 

I see. Well, honestly this thing is probably only going to hit Hampton Roads. I just know from experience as someone near Richmond. I feel like this one has to hit Richmond in order to hit y'all and I can tell you right now having to count on that track ain’t good.

[Yeoman]

1/25/2000 - never forget

[stormy]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

Precip type struggles aside, it was a whole lot better than the GFS.

You and I can agree to disagree and be friends.

The GFS was closer at 12z Saturday for Augusta at 5.9".   The  Euro was 6.8"

I didn't record the NAM but suspect it was closest.

[Yeoman]

Just now, overcautionisbad said:

I see. Well, honestly this think is probably only going to hit Hampton Roads. I just know from experience as someone near Richmond. I feel like this one has to hit Richmond in order to hit y'all and I can tell you right now having to count on that track ain’t good.

Well that settles it

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

This one is a long shot.

 Why u say that? It has multiple model support and ensembles support

[Nomz]

Just now, stormy said:

You and I can agree to disagree and be friends.

The GFS was closer at 12z Saturday for Augusta at 5.9".   The  Euro was 6.8"

I didn't record the NAM but suspect it was closest.

Aside from the fact that a 0.9" difference is literally just run to run noise, you're misusing the models. Euro and GFS aren't built to nowcast day-of events.

[Jebman]

13 hours ago, Heisy said:

Woof MFers, woof




.

Csnavywx, Is this a Triple Phaser? To my untrained eyes it sure looks like one.

If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck...

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Why u say that? It has multiple model support and ensembles support

He’s probably right, but also is a weenie. His post for the last storm were unbearable. 

[wasnow215]

Any AI models posted? For 12z -maybe I missed it but I'm reading through and I don't see anything about AI models

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS compared to 0Z; east shift but we have time to reek back in.

[Nomz]

I'm expecting the fam up north to get another dumping while we get nothing so I'll be pleasantly surprised if anything happens.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Any AI models posted? For 12z -maybe I missed it but I'm reading through and I don't see anything about AI models

Here's AIFS verbatim. Probably add 50% to the totals to account for extremely good ratios.

 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just a thought, and although I’m not superstitious, but jokes about Uccellini may bring bad karma. I mean, why risk it?

[Nomz]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Just a thought, and although I’m not superstitious, but jokes about Uccellini may bring bad karma. I mean, why risk it?

To be fair, i'd rather this one start cutting west a little bit

[Terpeast]

Just checked the euro AI models, they've been windshield wipering the past 3-4 runs. I think the models will need at least a couple of days to get a better handle on this. It may not happen in the next run.

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Aside from the fact that a 0.9" difference is literally just run to run noise, you're misusing the models. Euro and GFS aren't built to nowcast day-of events.

I have records on the models that go back a week. This is not nowcasting day of event. 

18z last Tuesday  1-20 found the GFS giving Augusta 3.1".   18z 1-20 Euro gave Augusta  13.2"

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just checked the euro AI models, they've been windshield wipering the past 3-4 runs. I think the models will need at least a couple of days to get a better handle on this. It may not happen in the next run.

Isn't this closed ULL setup way more volatile than last system?

[TowsonWeather]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

I have records on the models that go back a week. This is not nowcasting day of event. 

18z last Tuesday  1-20 found the GFS giving Augusta 3.1".   18z 1-20 Euro gave Augusta  13.2"

Yes, the fact that you have issues with what certain models gave your backyard on specific runs for one storm 100% justifies you saying that the EURO - widely recognized as the best weather forecasting model in the world due to many years of objective data - needs to "prove itself" and "regain credibility to be taken more seriously." This is high-quality logic and I have no notes. 

[EHoffman]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

He’s probably right, but also is a weenie. His post for the last storm were unbearable. 

Don't excuse him, literally every snow in this area is a long shot.  

[RevWarReenactor]

The key thing here is, this is thread the needle. We simply don't do thread the needles or miracles very often. I think people really need to set expectations much lower with this one. Would be more interested if I was in Boston or on Long Island. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, bncho said:

Isn't this closed ULL setup way more volatile than last system?

Oh definitely. It's a high risk high reward one. Most likely we get little or nothing, but a flush hit? Oh boy

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

All the folks saying "I'd rather this be east" and "we don't wanna be in the bullseye this far out" and "right where we want it" are very much off base here, imo.

This is a very very different type of storm than the one we just had - it's not a huge storm banging into a cold airmass from the southwest. Synoptically, there is a pretty razor thin margin for this thing to amplify and go negative quickly enough to become the coastal crawling monster we want it to be. The whole trough is WAY too east for anything else to work. The blizzard scenario for us is already at the far western end of the envelope of realistic possibilities. There's no way this cuts or goes west of us, it's essentially meteorologically impossible for it to do so.

We want every run to be crushing us - because there's a pretty thin line between a big storm for us and something OTS or a Hatteras/Cape Cod scraper or New England recurve bender, and every run that comes in on the wrong side of that line reduces the chances that something magic happens for us.

Depends. If the longwave ridge trough axis stays where the guidance projects right now it’s likely a miss east. But it’s been trending west and last week it did the same thing right up to the end. If you apply the same idea that NS wave will dig in further west. Into the MS valley instead of the TN valley. 
 

Usually with a miller b our issue is the NS wave doesn’t dig south enough. Without some serious -AO help it’s rare to get a NS wave south enough for a major amplification to work for us. We need the upper low to track across southern VA really.  Getting the NS to do that is hard. 
 

But this setup that actually doesn’t seem to be the issue. Damn some of the runs dig too much and cut off into a NC storm. The bigger issue I see now is the NS is diving in too far east to capture whatever STJ wave there is in time for us. Adjust the whole evolution west 200 miles and we would be in amazing shape!  
 

Keep an eye on two things. 
1) the whole longer ridge/trough axis. Is the western ridge keeps adjusting west watch the NS wave dive in further west and boom. If it doesn’t then missing southeast (like the AIFS) is the likely outcome. 
2) the depth of the NS trough. If we start to see if not dig as deep then a more typical miss to the northeast where Boston is happy and we smoke cirrus becomes a more likely outcome. 
 

if the depth of the trough remains the same and we get the westward trend of the longwave pattern to continue as it has the last 10 days  then we will get a snowstorm. 

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, stormy said:

You and I can agree to disagree and be friends.

The GFS was closer at 12z Saturday for Augusta at 5.9".   The  Euro was 6.8"

I didn't record the NAM but suspect it was closest.

You're judging a global model based on an amoeba sized piece of real estate and discarding the entire storm. Everyone is entitled to an opinion but based on how the storm unfolded for the entire coast, the euro was BY FAR the best from mid range on in. It literally locked in during the short range and barely wavered.

Micro analyzing a global model is using the wrong tool and perspective. No one tool is the best and thats why forecasters are important. To make sense of all the different nuances across guidance. Personally, I stick to a blend of the euro for qpf, track, and progression and the mesos for the fine details like thermals and banding. The last storm went exactly as I expected based on that formula. 

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The key thing to watch on the Euro for the next runs is we need the 500mb s/w to dig WEST over Minnesota at valid time 00z Jan 30. 

The 12z euro didn't dig that as far west as 6z did, and hence the result. So when watching for trends, watch the 500mb vorticity over the Minnesota/Wisconsin/upper lakes.

Super helpful here and we all are now on the same page with what we are looking for.   I know people are saying we have time...but not as much as people think regarding meaningful changes.   Important features develop 72-78 hours.   Im still optimistic 

[bncho]

Upgraded CMC is good 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You're judging a global model based on an amoeba sized piece of real estate and discarding the entire storm. Everyone is entitled to an opinion but based on how the storm unfolded for the entire coast, the euro was BY FAR the best from mid range on in. It literally locked in during the short range and barely wavered.

Micro analyzing a global model is using the wrong tool and perspective. No one tool is the best and thats why forecasters are important. To make sense of all the different nuances across guidance. Personally, I stick to a blend of the euro for qpf, track, and progression and the mesos for the fine details like thermals and banding. The last storm went exactly as I expected based on that formula. 

Yea people don’t realize that the difference between 6” and 12” in your yard doesn’t impact the verification scores of a global model. Missing a mid level warm layer by a few hours and 30 miles might effect our ground truth but it’s an insignificant error in the global scheme. 

[SnowenOutThere]

I think its an intriguing setup but not really one to get invested in at all. PSU's post about the western ridge axis pretty much sums up my thinking as of now. We also shouldn't be living or dying by the OP models quite yet, as even the GFS ENS have a decent signal. Instead I think its unlikely, though not quite a long shot, to get an appreciable storm into our area. Comparing this setup to last week at this time is a completely different ballgame as well. By this point last week we could say confidently that someone on the east coast would get a foot of snow, since this setup is more NS based I wouldn't feel comfortable saying that till Wednesday. Also want to watch the tilt of the western ridge. The 12 Euro has it more W-E which seems to hurt us. 

[psuhoffman]

Btw a super non scientific thing to keep an eye on. I’m way more ok with guidance being a miss to the southeast than if it’s to the east or worst northeast.  If the axis of snow is to our south or southeast we have the best chance of a positive trend. East is more iffy. Northeast and don’t waste your time. It’s next. 
 

There are scientific reasons behind this regarding which model errors we need to correct each of those and which are more likely but I’m not in the mood to write 5 pages so for now I’m ok with the fact the major ensembles are all showing the snow max to our south. That’s not a typical miller b representation and one that’s more likely to adjust in a positive way.