January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[LeesburgWx]

Is the UK worse than the GFS or in the similar camp run wise? I don't have the maps

[anotherman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd like ro fire that app into the sun right about now, lol

It's a problem.

[rjvanals]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Is the UK worse than the GFS or in the similar camp run wise? I don't have the maps

Energy doesn’t sync up and it quickly scoots of to our east it doesn’t really have a storm for anyone

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

It's a problem.

Geniunely don't know how they make forecasts. A pure copy and paste of the fucking GFS would be better than what it was printing.

[LordBaltimore]

LFG! Makes me feel like I'm 15 again. 

Snowpack for weeks and weeks

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait seriously? Huh...

Yes. While we were getting shellacked, the Canadian came in with 5" - 10" at 12z and we all laughed. Then the Euro came in with 15" - 20" and suddenly we knew something special was happening. There was a last minute bump north, but that was mostly because the block was decaying and it allowed for more poleward movement at 500 mb.

We do not appear to have such a scenario this time around. It's a healthy block.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Is the UK worse than the GFS or in the similar camp run wise? I don't have the maps

Much worse. Very progressive and out to sea. Trough never gets close to neutral and 500mb doesn't close off. Run of the mill weak progressive wave on the ukie 

[peribonca]

13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

You want an Apps runner?

No... A Chicago blizzard

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Energy doesn’t sync up and it quickly scoots of to our east it doesn’t really have a storm for anyone

Which is where the fail is for this. No chance of a cutter. It either closes off at 500 and we have a chance. Or it doesnt and misses. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes. While we were getting shellacked, the Canadian came in with 5" - 10" at 12z and we all laughed. Then the Euro came in with 15" - 20" and suddenly we knew something special was happening. There was a last minute bump north, but that was mostly because the block was decaying and it allowed for more poleward movement at 500 mb.

We do not appear to have such a scenario this time around. It's a healthy block.

Woww. Now see I wasn't tracking back then, so it was just hearing the forecasters say "accumulating snow" and not believing them at first! And ah that northward adjustment...that why we mixed for awhile? I remember being grumpy about the freezing rain that night, lol

[AlexD1990]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

UK is a miss

how much of one?

[clskinsfan]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

how much of one?

Completely.

[bncho]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

how much of one?

big epic fail

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Which is where the fail is for this. No chance of a cutter. It either closes off at 500 and we have a chance. Or it doesnt and misses. 

And you'd have to imagine that part of it we will know by what...end of tomorrow or Wednesday morning?

[Kevin Reilly]

36 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

If euros continue to hold gfs will catch on by Monday. 

It is Monday!? Oh wait you mean next Monday! 

[Heisy]

Which is where the fail is for this. No chance of a cutter. It either closes off at 500 and we have a chance. Or it doesnt and misses. 

I wouldn’t definitively say that, there are eps members that tuck this into the Delmarva. Even into C PA. Not saying it’s likely, but not impossible. I guess you can say that for any event though lol


.

[snowmagnet]

7 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Yeah, but guess what does have snow in the forecast?  Apple Weather.  Oh boy.

I told my son this morning that we may get a bigger storm this weekend. He said, "I know. It's on my App".

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

there are eps members that tuck this into the Delmarva

Sounds perfect to me. Where do I sign up.

[snowmagnet]

Justin Berk is a big fan of the Canadian and tracked it this past storm. I kept hoping it was wrong because it was much more sleet than snow, but apparently it was right. Good to get the Canadian on our side.  And the Euro, and the Euro AI. 

[snowmagnet]

After yesterday's debacle, it's great to track a legit SNOW storm. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Already seeing snowfall maps making the rounds on Twitter and other platforms. We need to limit access to this information for the general public, lol. Hilariously stupid to post these so early in a forum like that! 

[BristowWx]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

After yesterday's debacle, it's great to track a legit SNOW storm. 

Thought we were tracking a legit snowstorm 5 days ago.  Temps below 20 has to be all snow.  Until it isn’t.  It was still fun.  

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Already seeing snowfall maps making the rounds on Twitter and other platforms. We need to limit access to this information for the general public, lol. Hilariously stupid to post these so early in a forum like that! 

Yep my wife just showed me one.  I said you can’t believe anything the early.  She said “you said this weekend would be all snow and nope so I am now getting it some where else”. I hope she means her weather info.  

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Is the UK worse than the GFS or in the similar camp run wise? I don't have the maps

Ukie has no storm whatsoever, which is not surprising. It can sometimes whiff on these setups until you get within 100 hours. 

[DDweatherman]

Let me be the voice of reason a bit folks, this is still a northern stream dominant phase/close off solution. It did kind of pop back in "medium range", but its a long way off for this type of variable-complex driven solution. The models struggle with N/S waves often times, especially in these cases. 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Which is where the fail is for this. No chance of a cutter. It either closes off at 500 and we have a chance. Or it doesnt and misses. 

There's a middle ground for a cold 2-4/3-6 event. Something similar to a juiced clipper. That solution has showed up in my yard but that can easily be your yard or both our yards depending on the amp and dig. A neutral trough and modest shortwave pass would do it. A quick hitter but still a snow event worth tracking and enjoying. Cold fluffy powder unlike yesterday's shortbread cake lol. I personally would be happy/not disappointed with a middle ground solution. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS; last picture compared to 6Z.

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS; last picture compared to 6Z.

Improvement. Take it. Not gonna come all at once.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS; last picture compared to 6Z.

Appreciate the quick post with comparison, Will. Trend is our friend here. Based on MSLP maps there was a good shift of members towards the coast. Baby steps! 

[Duca892]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS; last picture compared to 6Z.

GFS ENS definitely a step in the right direction