LeesburgWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Is the UK worse than the GFS or in the similar camp run wise? I don't have the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I'd like ro fire that app into the sun right about now, lol It's a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Is the UK worse than the GFS or in the similar camp run wise? I don't have the maps Energy doesn’t sync up and it quickly scoots of to our east it doesn’t really have a storm for anyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, anotherman said: It's a problem. Geniunely don't know how they make forecasts. A pure copy and paste of the fucking GFS would be better than what it was printing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 LFG! Makes me feel like I'm 15 again. Snowpack for weeks and weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait seriously? Huh... Yes. While we were getting shellacked, the Canadian came in with 5" - 10" at 12z and we all laughed. Then the Euro came in with 15" - 20" and suddenly we knew something special was happening. There was a last minute bump north, but that was mostly because the block was decaying and it allowed for more poleward movement at 500 mb. We do not appear to have such a scenario this time around. It's a healthy block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Is the UK worse than the GFS or in the similar camp run wise? I don't have the maps Much worse. Very progressive and out to sea. Trough never gets close to neutral and 500mb doesn't close off. Run of the mill weak progressive wave on the ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: You want an Apps runner? No... A Chicago blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Energy doesn’t sync up and it quickly scoots of to our east it doesn’t really have a storm for anyone Which is where the fail is for this. No chance of a cutter. It either closes off at 500 and we have a chance. Or it doesnt and misses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. While we were getting shellacked, the Canadian came in with 5" - 10" at 12z and we all laughed. Then the Euro came in with 15" - 20" and suddenly we knew something special was happening. There was a last minute bump north, but that was mostly because the block was decaying and it allowed for more poleward movement at 500 mb. We do not appear to have such a scenario this time around. It's a healthy block. Woww. Now see I wasn't tracking back then, so it was just hearing the forecasters say "accumulating snow" and not believing them at first! And ah that northward adjustment...that why we mixed for awhile? I remember being grumpy about the freezing rain that night, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, bncho said: UK is a miss how much of one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, AlexD1990 said: how much of one? Completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, AlexD1990 said: how much of one? big epic fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, clskinsfan said: Which is where the fail is for this. No chance of a cutter. It either closes off at 500 and we have a chance. Or it doesnt and misses. And you'd have to imagine that part of it we will know by what...end of tomorrow or Wednesday morning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 36 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: If euros continue to hold gfs will catch on by Monday. It is Monday!? Oh wait you mean next Monday! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Which is where the fail is for this. No chance of a cutter. It either closes off at 500 and we have a chance. Or it doesnt and misses. I wouldn’t definitively say that, there are eps members that tuck this into the Delmarva. Even into C PA. Not saying it’s likely, but not impossible. I guess you can say that for any event though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, anotherman said: Yeah, but guess what does have snow in the forecast? Apple Weather. Oh boy. I told my son this morning that we may get a bigger storm this weekend. He said, "I know. It's on my App". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: there are eps members that tuck this into the Delmarva Sounds perfect to me. Where do I sign up. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Justin Berk is a big fan of the Canadian and tracked it this past storm. I kept hoping it was wrong because it was much more sleet than snow, but apparently it was right. Good to get the Canadian on our side. And the Euro, and the Euro AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 After yesterday's debacle, it's great to track a legit SNOW storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Already seeing snowfall maps making the rounds on Twitter and other platforms. We need to limit access to this information for the general public, lol. Hilariously stupid to post these so early in a forum like that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, snowmagnet said: After yesterday's debacle, it's great to track a legit SNOW storm. Thought we were tracking a legit snowstorm 5 days ago. Temps below 20 has to be all snow. Until it isn’t. It was still fun. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Already seeing snowfall maps making the rounds on Twitter and other platforms. We need to limit access to this information for the general public, lol. Hilariously stupid to post these so early in a forum like that! Yep my wife just showed me one. I said you can’t believe anything the early. She said “you said this weekend would be all snow and nope so I am now getting it some where else”. I hope she means her weather info. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Is the UK worse than the GFS or in the similar camp run wise? I don't have the maps Ukie has no storm whatsoever, which is not surprising. It can sometimes whiff on these setups until you get within 100 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Let me be the voice of reason a bit folks, this is still a northern stream dominant phase/close off solution. It did kind of pop back in "medium range", but its a long way off for this type of variable-complex driven solution. The models struggle with N/S waves often times, especially in these cases. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Which is where the fail is for this. No chance of a cutter. It either closes off at 500 and we have a chance. Or it doesnt and misses. There's a middle ground for a cold 2-4/3-6 event. Something similar to a juiced clipper. That solution has showed up in my yard but that can easily be your yard or both our yards depending on the amp and dig. A neutral trough and modest shortwave pass would do it. A quick hitter but still a snow event worth tracking and enjoying. Cold fluffy powder unlike yesterday's shortbread cake lol. I personally would be happy/not disappointed with a middle ground solution. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 WB 12Z GEFS; last picture compared to 6Z. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS; last picture compared to 6Z. Improvement. Take it. Not gonna come all at once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS; last picture compared to 6Z. Appreciate the quick post with comparison, Will. Trend is our friend here. Based on MSLP maps there was a good shift of members towards the coast. Baby steps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS; last picture compared to 6Z. GFS ENS definitely a step in the right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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