January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Kevin Reilly]

34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Funny thing is, and I remember because I posted the image about 8 days ago, models were showing a clear Miller A for the same time frame. Kind of got muted for a bit after, but now obviously is showing up again.

If any of the big deterministic guidance besides the euro jumps on board today, this place is going to erupt.

I have a pic of the 12z gfs from Thursday but the pic is too big for this forum totally 977 mb at benchmark.

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

nah, we sacrifice  @JenkinsJinkies so he can't say "bust confirmed"

I’m fairness I admitted I was wrong.

[Climate175]

06z WeatherNext 2.0 Ensemble Mean showed this.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Climate175 said:

06z WeatherNext 2.0 Ensemble Mean showed this.

Apparently that was deadly just like the euro ai for the last storm from day 4-5 in 

[jayyy]

06z WeatherNext 2.0 Ensemble Mean showed this.

Ah, the ole’ weathernext/euro rule!

[Kmlwx]

If I'm nitpicking...that WeatherNext model is a bit too offshore. I know it shows digital blue over us - but it is a good ways out to seat on that plot. We'll see how this week of model tracking pans out!

[snowmagnet]

48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Funny thing is, and I remember because I posted the image about 8 days ago, models were showing a clear Miller A for the same time frame. Kind of got muted for a bit after, but now obviously is showing up again.

If any of the big deterministic guidance besides the euro jumps on board today, this place is going to erupt.

Yup. It was before this past storm took center stage. The big ones often make a comeback. 

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm honestly quite intrigued about the late week potential. It has a legitimate upside (even B-word) potential for this area.

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

If I'm nitpicking...that WeatherNext model is a bit too offshore. I know it shows digital blue over us - but it is a good ways out to seat on that plot. We'll see how this week of model tracking pans out!

I believe it would be captured at this point and the strong 500mb ULL south of us would be doing its magic

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

If I'm nitpicking...that WeatherNext model is a bit too offshore. I know it shows digital blue over us - but it is a good ways out to seat on that plot. We'll see how this week of model tracking pans out!

Its west of the last run. And it’s not that much more east than eps mean. 

[Climate175]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

If I'm nitpicking...that WeatherNext model is a bit too offshore. I know it shows digital blue over us - but it is a good ways out to seat on that plot. We'll see how this week of model tracking pans out!

Compared to the 00z Ensemble Mean, the 06z was a tad more closer to the coast. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Gimme

 

 

[Paleocene]

King ICON is running... 12z suite begins peeps

[MillvilleWx]

I start night shifts late this week, so I could very well be in the thick of forecasting this if it comes to fruition. Here’s to another week of tracking 

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Could this back too far west and become an app runner lol? What are all the different ways it could screw us?

If it did that there would be tornados and stuff like that in our yards so some people here would love that option. 

[clskinsfan]

Just looking at the 500 progression on the Euro. The nice thing is with that setup cutting west of us is off the table. Its either we get blitzed or it misses east. 

[Climate175]

 

[frd]

16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Apparently that was deadly just like the euro ai for the last storm from day 4-5 in 

Correct,  had the general idea 5 days before.   

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

 

It even nailed the snow further North versus what was a NC and VA HECS, and mixing issues. Did awesome !

[frd]

Noah Bergren@NbergWX

·

12h

 

 

It would appear somewhat clear we are locked into this pattern now of big cold and winter weather events in the eastern U.S. for a while yet. Euro AI holds, even strengthens this pattern once we get into the first 10 days of February. This is the upper level pattern Feb 2. to Feb. 7. Lots of cold in the east with this. It may not be until the 2nd half of February until we finally get the persistent trough out of the east coast. I hope you like cold.

 

 

[frd]

Juicy 

 

 

 

 

[Solution Man]

Just now, frd said:

Noah Bergren@NbergWX

·

12h

 

 

It would appear somewhat clear we are locked into this pattern now of big cold and winter weather events in the eastern U.S. for a while yet. Euro AI holds, even strengthens this pattern once we get into the first 10 days of February. This is the upper level pattern Feb 2. to Feb. 7. Lots of cold in the east with this. It may not be until the 2nd half of February until we finally get the persistent trough out of the east coast. I hope you like cold.

 

 

Works for me, our golf course will emerge like the phoenix in April 

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Noah Bergren@NbergWX

·

12h

 

 

It would appear somewhat clear we are locked into this pattern now of big cold and winter weather events in the eastern U.S. for a while yet. Euro AI holds, even strengthens this pattern once we get into the first 10 days of February. This is the upper level pattern Feb 2. to Feb. 7. Lots of cold in the east with this. It may not be until the 2nd half of February until we finally get the persistent trough out of the east coast. I hope you like cold.

 

 

Plenty of cold air available, and the current snowpack on the ground helps a bit too.

[TSSN+]

This looks like it may have potential 

[Eskimo Joe]

06z Euro AI-EPS has a mean 850 temp during the storm of -10 to -15. Very supportive of good snow growth. It also would lay a good boundary for the 850 low to track to our south.

[Paleocene]

ICON looks like it is about to swing an uppercut. I'm only out to 102 hours

[IronTy]

bUt tHe HaDLeY cELL!!!

[jayyy]

bUt tHe HaDLeY cELL!!!

Don’t start it lol

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

ICON looks like it is about to swing an uppercut. I'm only out to 102 hours

It's very Euro-like

[Shad]

icon brings snow into VA fri night