January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I have a feeling that we’re gonna go another week without much sleep

I mean its still so far out. Do the ens and upper levels support it? 

[nj2va]

We leave for vacation on the 31st…tragic 

[Ralph Wiggum]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Thermals in question

If that fucker stacks vertically, thermals won't be an issue. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean its still so far out. Do the ens and upper levels support it? 

Yes and yes. Signal and tellies are there.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean its still so far out. Do the ens and upper levels support it? 

We shall see, but one thing is for sure - we have another threat to track, and we will be doing a lot of tracking.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean its still so far out. Do the ens and upper levels support it? 

Yes yes they do.  No idea why but it just works

[mattie g]

29 minutes ago, H2O said:

Meh. We know this will cut to Chicago 

Congrats, Uccellini.

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'd take that storm and call it a winter.  Seriously

I would, too.

I'm thinking we see this pattern play out through much of February. Once the atmosphere gets worn out, we get really warm for a couple weeks, then run the pattern back again in mid-March or so, and finally roll into a toasty spring.

But...for the time being, let's f*cking do this.

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'd take that storm and call it a winter.  Seriously

I'd take it, and call it a start.

[Amped]

These last 2 gfs runs belong in the weenie hall of fame.

[mattie g]

At about 300 hours, the 18z GFS looked like it was trying to do it all over again, but the northern stream energy coming out of Alberta cut off and started drifting southwest over Utah.

[poolz1]

Every 7 days.  That block is relentless.  Sure, an op out at range but it actually is a plausible scenario based on its own LR ens. I would weenie my own post if I could.

[NorthArlington101]

Even the Spire wanted to party 

 

somehow ended up owning like $20 of spire stock and it’s been doing well. Can’t be because of the weather model.

[Cobalt]

GEFS is pretty enthused at this range

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

fringed meh

[RickinBaltimore]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sure. It'll do.

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GEFS is pretty enthused at this range

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, Amped said:

These last 2 gfs runs belong in the weenie hall of fame.

Never gets above freezing thru 384 and no letup in sight. Amazing run of winter weather. We will be referring back to this one for a long long time. Savor every second.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'll accept it

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean its still so far out. Do the ens and upper levels support it? 

 I made a post about the favorable h5 look earlier in the week, and it hasn't really changed imo. I still think there is big dog potential. ( i actually hate that phrase) The ens runs have shown a signal for a storm, but not consistently yet.

 

[Heisy]

18z GEFs great signal for next weekend, we take!


.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

18z GEFs great signal for next weekend, we take!


.

What, this?

[frd]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I made a post about the favorable h5 look earlier in the week, and it hasn't really changed imo. I still think there is big dog potential. ( i actually hate that phrase) The ens runs have shown a signal for a storm, but not consistently yet.

 

 

You are in good company. 

 

 

Tomer Burg@burgwx

·

3h

 

 

There is a legitimate winter weather storm potential to monitor for the East Coast in early February. The large-scale ingredients are there: - Departing antecedent trough suppressing the baroclinic zone and acting as a transient 50/50 low - SW US trough entering the Gulf - Potential north stream trough being transported into the central/southern US downstream of western North American ridging There is still a lot of uncertainty and a suppressed low track is quite possible... but there is a *very* high-end ceiling for a major snowstorm if one does materialize out of these ingredients.

 

 

[Heisy]

What, this?

For this range it’s solid






.

[CAPE]

Most of the precip ends up just offshore, but this h5 look is a beauty on the 12z EPS.

[AlexD1990]

Just now, CAPE said:

Most of the precip ends up just offshore, but this h5 look is a beauty on the 12z EPS.

Just off my shitty knowledge, ridge axis over Boise, 50/50 low, -NAO? 

 

but doesn't it look a bit like Boxing Day? 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

Just off my shitty knowledge, ridge axis over Boise, 50/50 low, -NAO? 

 

but doesn't it look a bit like Boxing Day? 

Your area did pretty well didn't it? 

[LordBaltimore]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Never gets above freezing thru 384 and no letup in sight. Amazing run of winter weather. We will be referring back to this one for a long long time. Savor every second.

I'm telling you guys, the bay *will* freeze up this year. Maybe not 1977 style but as close as we can get with modern climo. Get ready for bay bridge ice-jam pics

Best part is when that happens places near the coast will decouple from their normal water moderated lows

[AlexD1990]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Your area did pretty well didn't it? 

[Img] https://tenor.com/view/monkey-look-the-other-way-look-away-awkward-weird-gif-17246188[/img]

[Ji]

I would call it FOLKS rn if I knew the thermals would hold.  Damn

lol folks is for under 144 hours man