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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That Baja Blast upper low is a BIG piece of this. Does it sit and eject waves? Does it come across as one big bowling ball? We already know almost assuredly that we are getting a cold arctic high coming South. 

Alright man you're not hijacking another nickname of mine--I'll sue! :lol:

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4 minutes ago, Disc said:

18z GEFS pushes the SW further east. Looks better than the op GFS already.

Actually shifted south on both surface and 500mb. I fear we can no longer discount the suppressed scenario if EPS does the same. 

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Actually shifted south on both surface and 500mb. I fear we can no longer discount the suppressed scenario if EPS does the same. 

A definite shift south from 12z GEFS. Too much cold!

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Meh...Gefs always follow the leader operational. At least more often than not.

Still thinking gfs/gefs may be overdoing the cold dome, its a known bias a week out. Not every day we get 1050 highs rolling in south from canada

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1 hour ago, bncho said:

Oh man, I'm getting...

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late-February 2025

...vibes. Just to make it clear, I am not saying we will fail this time, I am still incredibly optimistic. I'm only making the connection because of the amount of hype we have right now.

If this fails it will do so differently (though not completely so) than last Feb. Last Feb was a classic coastal look that ended up getting squashed to hell by the PV coming in overtop instead of phasing with it. @psuhoffman I believe ended up making a great breakdown of that scenario where you either get a phase and it mixes or you get squashed and it is suppressed. This is not that. This is instead a the question of if vorticity can eject from out west and not get squashed by a strong cold push. We need to watch for 1. the vorticity to actually eject 2. for the cold push to not kill it. IMO its a wait and see game but I don't particularly love relying on vorticity to eject and beat fresh cold air. That said we got plenty of time to see how it shakes out. 

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13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Meh...Gefs always follow the leader operational. At least more often than not.

The GEFS is known for being under dispersive more so than other ensemble systems, but I think there have been improvements. To a degree all ensembles are going to tend to follow the op for a given run.. and we have many more runs to go for this potential event.

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9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs vs 12z euro Ai, look at the difference In confluence strength.

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Interesting.  I'll also add that the ridging along the West Coast is also notably different.  Though that surely results in the downstream effects too of course.  In the Euro AI, that ridge points more directly up the coast (more north-south) whereas the GFS has it protruding more inland toward the Pac NW and southwest Canada.  I believe that the AI version with the ridge tilted as it is, allows for the main downstream trough in the central/eastern US to broaden more rather than digging so much in the east, giving the southwest trough more of a chance to turn the corner better or at least not get squashed into oblivion.

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18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still thinking gfs/gefs may be overdoing the cold dome, its a known bias a week out. Not every day we get 1050 highs rolling in south from canada

Yes-and also the European model has had this GFS model for lunch for going on to winter seasons now it hasn't even been close. GFS has been woefully bad, especially outside of 72 hours.

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