January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

But I thought the Allen Iverson models were “the answer?”

I’ll be here all week.

I lol'd

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That Baja Blast upper low is a BIG piece of this. Does it sit and eject waves? Does it come across as one big bowling ball? We already know almost assuredly that we are getting a cold arctic high coming South. 

Alright man you're not hijacking another nickname of mine--I'll sue! 

[Disc]

18z GEFS pushes the SW further east. Looks better than the op GFS already.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright man you're not hijacking another nickname of mine--I'll sue! 

I knew one of you guys said it....thats all yours. Love the name! I like the Mountain Dew too 

[winter_warlock]

I'd trust the bundle of misery known as my ex wife before I'd trust a GFS model 5+ days out 

[bncho]

18z GEFS trended colder with the heights a little bit lower. We will see what that does to the snowfall projections.

[Warm Nose]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I'd trust the bundle of misery known as my ex wife before I'd trust a GFS model 5+ days out 

This explains a lot but raises a new set of questions.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Disc said:

18z GEFS pushes the SW further east. Looks better than the op GFS already.

Actually shifted south on both surface and 500mb. I fear we can no longer discount the suppressed scenario if EPS does the same. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

18z GEFS trended colder with the heights a little bit lower. We will see what that does to the snowfall projections.

I'd imagine we'd wanna keep them higher...

[Disc]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Actually shifted south on both surface and 500mb. I fear we can no longer discount the suppressed scenario if EPS does the same. 

A definite shift south from 12z GEFS. Too much cold!

[mitchnick]

Meh...Gefs always follow the leader operational. At least more often than not.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Meh...Gefs always follow the leader operational. At least more often than not.

Still thinking gfs/gefs may be overdoing the cold dome, its a known bias a week out. Not every day we get 1050 highs rolling in south from canada

[Conway7305]

Onto 0z  

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Still thinking gfs/gefs may be overdoing the cold dome, its a known bias a week out.

I didn't know the GFS /gets had a bias of overdoing the cold dome causing surpression a week out. Thanks bro .. Learn something new every day 

[Ephesians2]

[aldie 22]

What's interesting is if the most skilled member is the op and most believe it's pretty flawed why is there faith in a bunch of members who are even less skilled? Who knows but all I know is 8 times out of 10 extreme cold doesn't materialize. If this thing slides it won't be because of the cold

[bncho]

Central NC has the best signal on the 18z GEFS, about 50% more than DC and Baltimore.

This is a decent FWIW tho

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Oh man, I'm getting...

  Reveal hidden contents

late-February 2025

...vibes. Just to make it clear, I am not saying we will fail this time, I am still incredibly optimistic. I'm only making the connection because of the amount of hype we have right now.

If this fails it will do so differently (though not completely so) than last Feb. Last Feb was a classic coastal look that ended up getting squashed to hell by the PV coming in overtop instead of phasing with it. @psuhoffman I believe ended up making a great breakdown of that scenario where you either get a phase and it mixes or you get squashed and it is suppressed. This is not that. This is instead a the question of if vorticity can eject from out west and not get squashed by a strong cold push. We need to watch for 1. the vorticity to actually eject 2. for the cold push to not kill it. IMO its a wait and see game but I don't particularly love relying on vorticity to eject and beat fresh cold air. That said we got plenty of time to see how it shakes out. 

[Interstate]

I mean you are saying the GFS is over doing the cold... However, the GFS, CMC, and Euro are all showing the same thing

[Heisy]

18z gfs vs 12z euro Ai, look at the difference In confluence strength.




.

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Meh...Gefs always follow the leader operational. At least more often than not.

The GEFS is known for being under dispersive more so than other ensemble systems, but I think there have been improvements. To a degree all ensembles are going to tend to follow the op for a given run.. and we have many more runs to go for this potential event.

[Weather Will]

Want to see a snow storm, put on the end of the Patriots game....

[psuhoffman]

It’s too far out for this 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs vs 12z euro Ai, look at the difference In confluence strength.




.

Interesting.  I'll also add that the ridging along the West Coast is also notably different.  Though that surely results in the downstream effects too of course.  In the Euro AI, that ridge points more directly up the coast (more north-south) whereas the GFS has it protruding more inland toward the Pac NW and southwest Canada.  I believe that the AI version with the ridge tilted as it is, allows for the main downstream trough in the central/eastern US to broaden more rather than digging so much in the east, giving the southwest trough more of a chance to turn the corner better or at least not get squashed into oblivion.

[Bob Chill]

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

[wasnow215]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still thinking gfs/gefs may be overdoing the cold dome, its a known bias a week out. Not every day we get 1050 highs rolling in south from canada

Yes-and also the European model has had this GFS model for lunch for going on to winter seasons now it hasn't even been close. GFS has been woefully bad, especially outside of 72 hours.

[Heisy]

What do you consider the southern MA?

Long way to go, but right now I’d feel really good if I’m a weenie in NC, S half of VA. N SC

18z Euro Ai is a huge hit fyi


.

[Conway7305]

I think we are in a good spot based off 18z GEFS.  Things always trend NW.  Would  rather be in this position  than  storm position  NE 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO AI for next weekend....

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

Alright Bob you gotta gut instinct for this kind of setup?