January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Lowkirkenuinely we've been edging for way too long with these chopped ass delulu setups, feeling like we sisyphus fr; we need the Euro to lock in and start looksmaxxing to reach its Lowkirkentologicalockedinflowstate and show a NS that finally rizzes up some gul moisture and show a storm so we can finally get return to our goon caves and end this snow edging streak. 67

Don't bring this bullshit into our forum me and @bncho could ruin every thread here if we wanted to. This is your warning. 

My eyes lit up when I saw I was pinged by @SnowenOutThere, and it lit up even more when I saw what he sent. 

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Lowkirkenuinely we've been edging for way too long with these chopped ass delulu setups, feeling like we sisyphus fr; we need the Euro to lock in and start looksmaxxing to reach its Lowkirkentologicalockedinflowstate and show a NS that finally rizzes up some gul moisture and show a storm so we can finally get return to our goon caves and end this snow edging streak. 67

Don't bring this bullshit into our forum me and @bncho could ruin every thread here if we wanted to. This is your warning. 

Fr fr this Euro run be bussin at the end.  It did bring the rizz no cap.  

[CAPE]

Hell of a signal at range. Look at all that HP to the N/NW.

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Well it's only 11 days out as opposed to  15 so has a little more credibility. And it has been showing for a while

actually not to weenie out but the euro develops the storm at 192-198 lol

[paulythegun]

Two big time coldenings on EPS

 

 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Hell of a signal at range. Look at all that HP to the N/NW.

reel this in

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hell of a signal at range. Look at all that HP to the N/NW.

Ya I mean come on. 
 

[yoda]

Borrowing this from Will in the SNE thread

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ok these are the cold events that @dendrite and I like to track. Cold worth tracking. 
 

Pure clown range fantasy but it’s so anomalous its worth posting….
 

Not sure I’ve seen -30C at 925 over such a large area. This would be almost perfect too if the timing happened this way because you wouldn’t get the cheap midnight high. Real push arrives between 00z-06z and its so strong that we get like a Xmas 1980 type daytime with highs near -10F even over interior SNE. 
 

 

 

 

[IronTy]

18 hours ago, IronTy said:

This storm is the harbinger of our fading Nina pattern shift.  I've got a good feeling about this one.  

This one was never our storm.  

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Borrowing this from Will in the SNE thread

 

Out in weenie land but Euro showing a high of 3F for DC on the 27th and a low of -10F on the 28th. Can't see I've seen that modeled by the Euro at any range lol

[Twilly05]

23 hours ago, Scraff said:

Just getting back in here. Someone provide the cliff notes. Are we winning? Losing? 

 

38 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Only the old people will get this. 

And GI Joe got stuck…

[TSSN+]

If we can’t score by the end of the month we may never. Lol

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

It's never simple. Overrunning also gives you sleet, freezing rain, or rain. And wave interactions can always apply regardless of synoptic setup.

Threats look simpler in the long range because of the ensemble averaging effect. So if you overlay the height field with the precipitation field, it often looks like basic overrunning with flat mid-levels. By the time you get closer to the threat, the ensemble spread significantly narrows, the amplitude of the waves increase, and you see the real synoptic complexity.

At the risk of semantics...SO perhaps not "simple" but rather simplER? That is if you were to compare overruning to a phase event which is easiER? @CAPE or anybody else have thoughts on that?

[stormy]

Euro on the 25th is much better than the GFS on the 28th.

Mobile to Charleston to OBX with cold high pressure to the north would work!

Warning level accumulations with 850 temperatures well down in the 20's and falling would rule out mixing issues.

Considering this is 9 days out I will give it a 40% chance of verifying.  If still populating with significance at 24 hrs, that 40% can increase to 60%.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

Euro on the 25th is much better than the GFS on the 28th.

Mobile to Charleston to OBX with cold high pressure to the north would work!

Warning level accumulations with 850 temperatures well down in the 20's and falling would rule out mixing issues.

Considering this is 9 days out I will give it a 40% chance of verifying.  If still populating with significance at 24 hrs, that 40% can increase to 60%.

40% at day 9 huh? That is impressive lol 

[Huffwx]

11 minutes ago, Twilly05 said:

 

And GI Joe got stuck…

So he chose to venture into the cave from were the bubble were coming from.. 

[Eskimo Joe]

The EPS has a mean high in the single digits across the entire region towards the end of January. Wow. 

[brooklynwx99]

i'm just gonna leave this here

[wxdude64]

54 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Only the old people will get this. 

Charlie! Go get me two gallons of gasoline out of the shed!

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i'm just gonna leave this here

Not great to see that trough build in so quickly over Alaska?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not great to see that trough build in so quickly over Alaska?

the Pacific trough pumps the PNA... that's part of the reason why it usually torches after big storms as the jet overextends

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

At the risk of semantics...SO perhaps not "simple" but rather simplER? That is if you were to compare overruning to a phase event which is EASIER? @CAPE or somebody help me out here, lol

See the panel I posted above. See the wall of HP to the north? Wont be so many pieces of vorticity flying around and digging southward, so simpler perhaps.

Look at what we have for the upcoming (non) event compared the advertised h5 look for around the 24th-

Still could have some vorticity rotating southward from the TPV, and that would provide confluence as the shortwave in the SW moves eastward- too much of that could be suppressive. There are always obstacles to our ultimate goal lol.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the Pacific trough pumps the PNA... that's part of the reason why it usually torches after big storms as the jet overextends

This... the trough is there on our big storm composite look...which as you say is why our big storms tend to come at the end of cold periods and are usually followed by moderation...because the trough there temporarily creates the perfect longwave configuration for a big amplification along the east coast but also leads to warmer air invading the CONUS shortly after...but it doesn't necessarily always have to torch or the warmup doesn't have to last...depends how things evolve from there.  

But if we do finally get a big snowstorm I'm gonna hit the first person who says "But it all melted a week later" over the head with a tack hammer.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

we were promised warmer and wetter winters with you know.....now they are colder and cant even buy a rain drop

Cold dry winters were always a thing.... but it hurts that much more when 80% of our winters are warm now...we can't afford to waste cold ones.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not great to see that trough build in so quickly over Alaska?

Imho thats going to be more an Aleutian low signal than an Alaska proper vortex. That look presented actually gets us in +PNA territory and verbatim would move the PNA ridge axis near the benchmark (Idaho iirc). I would be ok with the epo easing a bit as this look takes shape going into the waning days of Jan/early Feb.

One thing seems certain at least, anyone that declared winter over is likely in for a rude awakening shortly.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This... the trough is there on our big storm composite look...which as you say is why our big storms tend to come at the end of cold periods and are usually followed by moderation...because the trough there temporarily creates the perfect longwave configuration for a big amplification along the east coast but also leads to warmer air invading the CONUS shortly after...but it doesn't necessarily always have to torch or the warmup doesn't have to last...depends how things evolve from there.  

But if we do finally get a big snowstorm I'm gonna hit the first person who says "But it all melted a week later" over the head with a tack hammer.  

Sledgehammer and we all know it would probably be Ji 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Sledgehammer and we all know it would probably be Ji 

Oddly enough once the snow stops he doesn't care.  He will complain 3 days after a HECS though if there is nothing else to track on the models  

[eduggs]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

At the risk of semantics...SO perhaps not "simple" but rather simplER? That is if you were to compare overruning to a phase event which is easiER? @CAPE or anybody else have thoughts on that?

Where I agree with you is that if you pre-define a synoptic setup as simple (moist southerly flow into a cold dome), then it is comparatively simple. We do get hung up on semantics. But I also think we oversimplify and broad-brush weather events with terms that are too general. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Oddly enough once the snow stops he doesn't care.  He will complain 3 days after a HECS though if there is nothing else to track on the models  

He promised not till next December though if we get this one. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oddly enough once the snow stops he doesn't care.  He will complain 3 days after a HECS though if there is nothing else to track on the models  

Exactly how I feel honestly. It’s cool for a day. I guess I don’t want it to be 70 right after but nothing cures the post-storm sadness like something lined up after.