January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Whats up with this? I've been watching the Shenandoah mountains for a snowing hiking trip for years. 4k plus mountains that never get snow. I've had more snow here alone the bay than Big Meadow at like 4500' elevation for the past 5 years.

They do extremely well in moisture laden classical nor’easters and tropical remnant setups. We typically get a system or two like that in spring/early summer and I highly recommend a rain hike out there. You get to experience entering into the cloud deck and it just dumping rain with all the streams being crystal clear. In some ways I remember it more fondly than my snow hikes in Catoctins, WV and MD.

[Chris78]

Looking at the GEFS overnight runs we might have to wait till after the 25th for any region wide snow chances. The 23rd-25th looks more cutterish unfortunately. 

Long way out and things can change but definitely trended warmer in that time frame.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

30 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Whats up with this? I've been watching the Shenandoah mountains for a snowing hiking trip for years. 4k plus mountains that never get snow. I've had more snow here alone the bay than Big Meadow at like 4500' elevation for the past 5 years.

I've also wondered about this.  It just seems like a really bad area for snow.  Have to keep going to Canaan Valley.

[dailylurker]

14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

They do extremely well in moisture laden classical nor’easters and tropical remnant setups. We typically get a system or two like that in spring/early summer and I highly recommend a rain hike out there. You get to experience entering into the cloud deck and it just dumping rain with all the streams being crystal clear. In some ways I remember it more fondly than my snow hikes in Catoctins, WV and MD.

That sound fun. I never really considered a rain hike up there. That would be cool in a tropical remnant environment. Like a mountain tropical rainforest hike. Probably a way better chance at that than a blizzard these days lol

[frd]

 

The upcoming cold is impressive, too bad its dry. Modeling is giving some hints of more active STJ way out in time.  Maybe HM's window hits in the very late Jan to Feb 10 th time frame.

 

Tonight

Rain likely before 2am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 34. West wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Saturday

A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 32.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 19.

M.L.King Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 32.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

 

[87storms]

Definitely can see how the Pacific is the source of our overall issues the last few years. Everything is just nudged too far east. Just about every northern stream wave as well. Where are our clippers? I can’t even remember the last clean 1-3/2-4” event from a clipper moving south of our latitude. Even with today’s storm, you can see the overall pattern and why we are not getting a snowstorm from it: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G19&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

It’s just a really sloppy pattern for us to get any snowstorm. Maybe having all that cold air to the north will allow for a more zonal flow later next week. Tbd.

 

[frd]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EURO ai gets some precip to us this weekend.

[Eskimo Joe]

Decent trend on the EPS overnight at 00z and 06z. For the Sunday event. Looks like 40% chance of an inch of snow from I-95 east.

00z/06z Euro-AI also bumped the odds of light snow up too. Trough is further west.

[Terpeast]

Looks like the Sunday event is our next best shot at light snow in DC metro (ok maybe some snow showers tonight if lucky). 

Then a cutter-ish/SWFE event Jan 22-24 where we rain or mix, and things should get interesting after that.

Who knows, something might sneak up on us within a couple days in that entire time frame.

ngl it's been a boring winter so far - at least we didn't torch for that long. My highest high was 60 this January, and it looks like I won't reach that again for the rest of the month.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

and it looks like I won't reach that again for the rest of the month.

Given some of the signals probably not again until late February at the earliest.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like the Sunday event is our next best shot at light snow in DC metro (ok maybe some snow showers tonight if lucky). 

Then a cutter-ish/SWFE event Jan 22-24 where we rain or mix, and things should get interesting after that.

Who knows, something might sneak up on us within a couple days in that entire time frame.

ngl it's been a boring winter so far - at least we didn't torch for that long. My highest high was 60 this January, and it looks like I won't reach that again for the rest of the month.

Euro has been fairly consistent on some of us getting a dusting Saturday morning with the upper level energy swinging around 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like the Sunday event is our next best shot at light snow in DC metro (ok maybe some snow showers tonight if lucky). 

Then a cutter-ish/SWFE event Jan 22-24 where we rain or mix, and things should get interesting after that.

Who knows, something might sneak up on us within a couple days in that entire time frame.

ngl it's been a boring winter so far - at least we didn't torch for that long. My highest high was 60 this January, and it looks like I won't reach that again for the rest of the month.

Little interested in Saturday too. I think I'm going to try and get a hang in with @katabaticand hopefully have a wintry day, so it might not matter to me much, but EURO/CMC/ICON have at least some light snow in the area.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Little interested in Saturday too. I think I'm going to try and get a hang in with @katabaticand hopefully have a wintry day, so it might not matter to me much, but EURO/CMC/ICON have at least some light snow in the area.

Holy crap. 6z rgem is like a solid 1-3” for the area Saturday!

[frd]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like the Sunday event is our next best shot at light snow in DC metro (ok maybe some snow showers tonight if lucky). 

Then a cutter-ish/SWFE event Jan 22-24 where we rain or mix, and things should get interesting after that.

Who knows, something might sneak up on us within a couple days in that entire time frame.

ngl it's been a boring winter so far - at least we didn't torch for that long. My highest high was 60 this January, and it looks like I won't reach that again for the rest of the month.

Any thoughts on the subtropical jet stream becoming more active in early February? 

Several meteorologists that specialize in the weather patterns of the Pacific have mentioned this might occur. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, frd said:

Any thoughts on the subtropical jet stream becoming more active in early February? 

Several meteorologists that specialize in the weather patterns of the Pacific have mentioned this might occur. 

Some runs for the last week of January are showing possible gulf moisture heading this way.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Some runs for the last week of January are showing possible gulf moisture heading this way.

Would love that to continue to coincide with the next Arctic blast after the warm up between the 22nd and 24th. I'm

[SnowenOutThere]

55 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

That sound fun. I never really considered a rain hike up there. That would be cool in a tropical remnant environment. Like a mountain tropical rainforest hike. Probably a way better chance at that than a blizzard these days lol

Yep, just make sure you check to make sure there’s no CAPE or thunderstorm potential. Oh and always approach from the top as I tried going bottom up once and the bridge was washed out 

[SnowenOutThere]

Wait did everyone just ignore the light event the GFS has for the @NorthArlington101 Storm just because it isn’t 60 inches?

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wait did everyone just ignore the light event the GFS has for the @NorthArlington101 Storm just because it isn’t 60 inches?

I know I did - I feel like I often forget to check the 6z runs unless people are talking about them here. Looks like a pretty easy high-end advisory event. Too bad it's Day 9

[rjvanals]

RGEM gives us some white rain on Saturday 

[Eskimo Joe]

00z Euro dumped an legit ice box on most of the US towards the end of January. If we can manage any snow cover, it wouldn't surprise me to see some days with highs in the lower to mid 20s.

[Scraff]

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Holy crap. 6z rgem is like a solid 1-3” for the area Saturday!

Everyone chasing unicorns I know, but I’ll bet we would all gladly take a 1-3 that’s not in fantasy land. Let’s see if the 12z suite throws us a bone. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Everyone chasing unicorns I know, but I’ll bet we would all gladly take a 1-3 that’s not in fantasy land. Let’s see if the 12z suite throws us a bone. 

12z rgem looks pretty similar. A bit lighter.

[nw baltimore wx]

51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Holy crap. 6z rgem is like a solid 1-3” for the area Saturday!

 

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Everyone chasing unicorns I know, but I’ll bet we would all gladly take a 1-3 that’s not in fantasy land. Let’s see if the 12z suite throws us a bone. 

The last five runs of the gfs from a surface perspective.

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

The last five runs of the gfs from a surface perspective.

Kinda of looks like it wants to load up on a little juice before it swings up thru us? 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Everyone chasing unicorns I know, but I’ll bet we would all gladly take a 1-3 that’s not in fantasy land. Let’s see if the 12z suite throws us a bone. 

Agreed. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

53 minutes ago, frd said:

after the warm up between the 22nd and 24th.

"Warm up" is doing some heavy lifting here.