January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[wxdude64]

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Cant be too discouraged with this mornings gfs run. Plenty of chances are coming over the next couple of weeks.

The problem I have is, there's ALWAYS lots of chances, then slowly as we close in on the dates..... *poof*. This is true with 90% of all the models. I'd rather they show nothing and then hone in on an idea 5-7 days out, a LOT less exhausting. Maybe I (we) need to just watch the first 1/4-1/2 of the model runs and go from there. 

[clskinsfan]

12 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

The problem I have is, there's ALWAYS lots of chances, then slowly as we close in on the dates..... *poof*. This is true with 90% of all the models. I'd rather they show nothing and then hone in on an idea 5-7 days out, a LOT less exhausting. Maybe I (we) need to just watch the first 1/4-1/2 of the model runs and go from there. 

Dont look at the surface. It leads to nothing but frustration. Look at the upper levels and you will see that we are going to chances. And we are heading into our prime climo. I am not really concerned at this point. 

[bncho]

At least January isn't entirely screwed. Ensemble snow means have been quite high.

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Dont look at the surface. It leads to nothing but frustration. Look at the upper levels and you will see that we are going to chances. And we are heading into our prime climo. I am not really concerned at this point. 

That’s right, quit chasing the shiny object, well said

[87storms]

Is this the can-kicking portion of the program?

[Solution Man]

Just now, 87storms said:

Is this the can-kicking portion of the program?

Yes, we know the cycle by now

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Yes, we know the cycle by now

We’re due for a March triple phaser.

[CAPE]

Not saying we wont see snow before this- I think we will- but this period offers a favorable h5 look for our region to get snow.

[Solution Man]

18 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Yes, we know the cycle by now

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

 

AI

[bncho]

[CAPE]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

AI

lol so what? 

AI is the shit. Its everywhere for everything.

[dailylurker]

25 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Is this the can-kicking portion of the program?

All of our classic winters go like this lol. The lack of snow in the nw zones is actually getting kinda weird. I haven't even been able to snow hike in the Catoctins. The top of the Catoctins has done worse then my area for many years now.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

 

@mattie g will appreciate the above.   

Moving on to the AO, it looks to make a deeper negative dive. PNA after spiking not really looking too bad, as for the NAO, neutral but would not be surprised if it trends negative late month. Snowfall oppurtunities will be there, however, needing extra patience in a Nina, even if we are about to flip to a Nino soon.    

 

[IronTy]

12 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

MJO starts moving into favorable positions by then too.

The second half of January is gonna be rockin'!

The last week of January is gonna be rockin'!

The first week of February is gonna be rockin'!

[NVAwx]

This is such a terrible hobby.  

[bncho]

lol its too bantery y'all. I agree with the doom and gloom and can kick and kick in the crotch but unless its weather related put it in panic thread or banter. thanks!

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

doom and gloom and can kick

Reminder that the 15th was a Rainer until this past Friday.

[bncho]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Reminder that the 15th was a Rainer until this past Friday.

we're tracking rain/snow showers, even better

[Alfoman]

It's times like this that I would like to remind everyone that we could be chasing super long range pattern changes or dealing with Pac Puke funneling into the US coupled with a raging SER. It could (and routinely has in the past 10 years) been worse than we have it right now. 

While it sucks to see a potentially fun dynamic system not go our way, you can't look at the models last night and tell me we don't own any serious chances in the next two weeks. I'll gladly take flakes or a coating from either system while I wait for things to materialize. 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

we're tracking rain/snow showers, even better

Time to gas up for the cape system. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Alfoman said:

Pac Puke funneling into the US coupled with a raging SER

That’s been getting can kicked this season too.

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

It's times like this that I would like to remind everyone that we could be chasing super long range pattern changes or dealing with Pac Puke funneling into the US coupled with a raging SER. It could (and routinely has in the past 10 years) been worse than we have it right now. 

While it sucks to see a potentially fun dynamic system not go our way, you can't look at the models last night and tell me we don't own any serious chances in the next two weeks. I'll gladly take flakes or a coating from either system while I wait for things to materialize. 

Agreed. We are at least in the game for the next few weeks. All we can ask for here in the subtropics. CPC has us below normal temps on days 6-10 and days 8-14. Precip looks hard to find though.

[wxdude64]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

lol its too bantery y'all. I agree with the doom and gloom and can kick and kick in the crotch but unless its weather related put it in panic thread or banter. thanks!

Oh, I'm NOT 'doom and gloom', more irritated at following 10-30 day outlooks when I should know better. Yes, the 'uppers' have looked great most of the winter (well, except for that Christmas week, which it did a great job of picking up) and then the closer we get to those 'good looks'..... 

[psuhoffman]

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I swear the pre-2018 Euro version was better than any model now, including the current Euro.

Verification proves each run is more likely to be accurate now, however there is more chaos imo. 20 years ago I think I was able to use the models more functionally. They weren’t more likely to be correct but they had more consistent fail patterns you could adjust for. Now they fail in different ways that are impossible to predict run to run. 

[bncho]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

Oh, I'm NOT 'doom and gloom', more irritated at following 10-30 day outlooks when I should know better. Yes, the 'uppers' have looked great most of the winter (well, except for that Christmas week, which it did a great job of picking up) and then the closer we get to those 'good looks'..... 

you're right, actually, h5 has been looking pretty damn good this winter (e.g. Jan 15 ULL) but those h5 looks aren't translating to the surface, where's it's often cold and dry.

[stormtracker]

21 minutes ago, bncho said:

lol its too bantery y'all. I agree with the doom and gloom and can kick and kick in the crotch but unless its weather related put it in panic thread or banter. thanks!

Moderator bncho ladies and gentlemen.  

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Moderator bncho ladies and gentlemen.  

Who is this dude and what did he do with the real bncho? But for real the post quality improved vastly and quickly haha 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Verification proves each run is more likely to be accurate now, however there is more chaos imo. 20 years ago I think I was able to use the models more functionally. They weren’t more likely to be correct but they had more consistent fail patterns you could adjust for. Now they fail in different ways that are impossible to predict run to run. 

Yep. Known biases. Now, the biases change with the system.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Who is this dude and what did he do with the real bncho? But for real the post quality improved vastly and quickly haha 

Bullying works in this context.  The young ones always go thru this transition. Some slower than others. But they get there.