January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Tomorrow is too early for being definitive imho. Monday at least.

Here we need to be on the Northern side of a big amount of snow early, with tons of room for movement. If we are too close to the cutoffs, we can easily get missed to the north. We do not have much cushion on this one.. that vort has to dig.. We need a big dig.. BIG.. and just far enough west to turn right. If we complicate this any (as we are now) we will need to bet on fail... 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Tomorrow is too early for being definitive imho. Monday at least.

6z or 12z?

[H2O]

Did everyone get ridiculously hyped over a model run a weekish away that had the perfect setup for snow knowing things would change?  Again?  
 

A model run with just the right ridging and wave spacing where if one little thing goes wrong with PV spacing, trough depth, trailing energy and ULL pass?  Those variables and the ones I didn’t mention that all need to be exactly as shown today?

 

 

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Did everyone get ridiculously hyped over a model run a weekish away that had the perfect setup for snow knowing things would change?  Again?  
 

A model run with just the right ridging and wave spacing where if one little thing goes wrong with PV spacing, trough depth, trailing energy and ULL pass?  Those variables and the ones I didn’t mention that all need to be exactly as shown today?

 

 

Me likey when blue go big big on map

[psuhoffman]

Honestly this isn’t the kind of setup that gets resolved until inside 72 hours. Maybe 48. And honestly this exact type setup when we’re waiting on a surface redevelopment associated with NS phasing and an amplifying upper low…is some of our biggest last minute busts. A recent example was March 8 2018.  Expecting 4-8” across Maryland 12 hours out and the whole thing developed late and totally missed us. And I could rattle off more examples both good and bad. Similar one in 1996 and the other way. We went to bed expecting nothing and a NJ northeast storm and we got 6-10”.   This is not a long track type thing. Even if it looked great at 48 hours I’d be hella nervous. Just warning y’all in case we get some kind of consensus in the next day or two…I still wouldn’t feel great. These type setups historically have given the models fits right up until game time. And unfortunately the typical error is for things to get going slower and shift northeast at the end. Not always. I have an example that developed southwest of guidance but it was 30 years ago!  

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly this isn’t the kind of setup that gets resolved until inside 72 hours. Maybe 48. And honestly this exact type setup when we’re waiting on a surface redevelopment associated with NS phasing and an amplifying upper low…is some of our biggest last minute busts. A recent example was March 8 2018.  Expecting 4-8” across Maryland 12 hours out and the whole thing developed late and totally missed us. And I could rattle off more examples both good and bad. Similar one in 1996 and the other way. We went to bed expecting nothing and a NJ northeast storm and we got 6-10”.   This is not a long track type thing. Even if it looked great at 48 hours I’d be hella nervous. Just warning y’all in case we get some kind of consensus in the next day or two…I still wouldn’t feel great. These type setups historically have given the models fits right up until game time. And unfortunately the typical error is for things to get going slower and shift northeast at the end. Not always. I have an example that developed southwest of guidance but it was 30 years ago!  

PSU ur always the one who makes sense and keeps it real!!!   We appreciate that!!

[psuhoffman]

I’m feeling optimistic still in general. Just saying I’m not putting any emotional investment on this one particular threat. Been burned way too many times by these type things.  I’ll get excited when I see the flakes falling with these miller b NS phase setups. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m feeling optimistic still in general. Just saying I’m not putting any emotional investment on this one particular threat. Been burned way too many times by these type things.  I’ll get excited when I see the flakes falling with these miller b NS phase setups. 

Is your view for the 18th similar?

[H2O]

14 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Me likey when blue go big big on map

Snow gud, cake yummy, fire bad, 2+2 is spaghetti

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Snow gud, cake yummy, fire bad, 2+2 is spaghetti

Torch is cold, weenie is sensible, snow is rain

[psuhoffman]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is your view for the 18th similar?

It’s hard to see that clearly because this bigger amplification is in front of it and will impact the flow behind it. But that wave is a more normal way for us to get a snowstorm. 
 

Nothing in this type pattern is likely a super long track thing. Models just aren’t resolving these waves at range in this noisy flow with phasing involved. But that one is feel more comfortable if it looked good across guidance at say 48 or 72 hours. This first one I won’t feel good until I see the death band over me!  
 

I am also not sold this is over after the 20th. The day 15 across guidance doesn’t look bad to me. -AO, trough near Hawaii. PNA going positive again. Frankly it looks like the day 5-10 looked when it was at day 15. 
 

Im pretty sure it’s going to snow this month. In just warning against trying to identify the exact threat at range in this pattern. It’s likely we won’t know until inside 2-3 days when we do finally get a hit. 
 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I am also not sold this is over after the 20th. The day 15 across guidance doesn’t look bad to me. -AO, trough near Hawaii. PNA going positive again. Frankly it looks like the day 5-10 looked when it was at day 15. 

Plus the MJO is forecast to move into a more favorable position by late month.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly this isn’t the kind of setup that gets resolved until inside 72 hours. Maybe 48. And honestly this exact type setup when we’re waiting on a surface redevelopment associated with NS phasing and an amplifying upper low…is some of our biggest last minute busts. A recent example was March 8 2018.  Expecting 4-8” across Maryland 12 hours out and the whole thing developed late and totally missed us. And I could rattle off more examples both good and bad. Similar one in 1996 and the other way. We went to bed expecting nothing and a NJ northeast storm and we got 6-10”.   This is not a long track type thing. Even if it looked great at 48 hours I’d be hella nervous. Just warning y’all in case we get some kind of consensus in the next day or two…I still wouldn’t feel great. These type setups historically have given the models fits right up until game time. And unfortunately the typical error is for things to get going slower and shift northeast at the end. Not always. I have an example that developed southwest of guidance but it was 30 years ago!  

I find that our beloved forum is deaf to these warnings despite them being absolutely spot on (I guess it's not wanting to acknowledge fail probability when the models seem to "lock in"). We need to view this like it's still in fantasy range!

I feel like wave 2 would be simpler...

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Plus the MJO is forecast to move into a more favorable position by late month.

The best sign is someone said JB thinks it’s going to be warm. 

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly this isn’t the kind of setup that gets resolved until inside 72 hours. Maybe 48. And honestly this exact type setup when we’re waiting on a surface redevelopment associated with NS phasing and an amplifying upper low…is some of our biggest last minute busts. A recent example was March 8 2018.  Expecting 4-8” across Maryland 12 hours out and the whole thing developed late and totally missed us. And I could rattle off more examples both good and bad. Similar one in 1996 and the other way. We went to bed expecting nothing and a NJ northeast storm and we got 6-10”.   This is not a long track type thing. Even if it looked great at 48 hours I’d be hella nervous. Just warning y’all in case we get some kind of consensus in the next day or two…I still wouldn’t feel great. These type setups historically have given the models fits right up until game time. And unfortunately the typical error is for things to get going slower and shift northeast at the end. Not always. I have an example that developed southwest of guidance but it was 30 years ago!  

Jan 26, 2011 also developed early and everyone north of I-66 scored.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Jan 26, 2011 also developed early and everyone north of I-66 scored.

Yes but that system had an STJ wave associated with it. That was a miller a/b hybrid. It definitely phased late. So similar but not a pure NS miller b like this. These are even more precarious for us. 

[WxUSAF]

This is what I’m saying. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yes but that system had an STJ wave associated with it. That was a miller a/b hybrid. It definitely phased late. So similar but not a pure NS miller b like this. These are even more precarious for us. 

Agreed. @Terpeastsaid it best. As long as the 500 energy is to our south, we're in a good place.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So 18+ hours of snow including deform banding from a 993mb low and only .5"?

Surface is trying to play catch up? Warm tongue sleet 

[Ji]

I’m feeling optimistic still in general. Just saying I’m not putting any emotional investment on this one particular threat. Been burned way too many times by these type things.  I’ll get excited when I see the flakes falling with these miller b NS phase setups. 

Can’t wait till next winter. Long tracking events.
Pineapple Express. I think it will be colder than last Nino

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Jan 25-26, 2011. Absolutely wild event. Over 100,000 power outages from 6"-10" of paste in 6 hours under a setting sun.

Yes and that’s an analog season for me 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

That rained like 10-15 minutes lol

Yeah driving on 70 east of Frederick was near white out 

[clskinsfan]

47 minutes ago, H2O said:

Did everyone get ridiculously hyped over a model run a weekish away that had the perfect setup for snow knowing things would change?  Again?  
 

A model run with just the right ridging and wave spacing where if one little thing goes wrong with PV spacing, trough depth, trailing energy and ULL pass?  Those variables and the ones I didn’t mention that all need to be exactly as shown today?

 

 

I mean this is the setup we can actually score though. The PV is going to get displaced south. That is the main factor for me. 

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but that system had an STJ wave associated with it. That was a miller a/b hybrid. It definitely phased late. So similar but not a pure NS miller b like this. These are even more precarious for us. 

Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t this storm have some level of southern stream involvement? Obviously it’s mainly a miller B type storm but looking at the setup I thought it was at least sorta phased with southern energy which helped get the storm to pull south. The 250mb wind also shows the southern wind maximum getting absorbed. 

[WxUSAF]

Yeah I think there’s southern stream involvement, but less than it looked like a few days ago. 

[stormtracker]

The one thing we are all interested in should be known by tomorrow's 0z run. And that is if GreyHat will be driving home Sunday or Monday.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So 18+ hours of snow including deform banding from a 993mb low and only .5"?

It’s probably going to have to get east of our longitude to really snow.  Last night it came up about 2016 and thst was a long drawn out 0.5” event 

[clskinsfan]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The one thing we are all interested in should be known by tomorrow's 0z run. And that's if GreyHat will be driving home Sunday or Monday.

We all pray it is Sunday.....Or was it Monday we wanted?

[ravensrule]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The one thing we are all interested in should be known by tomorrow's 0z run. And that is if GreyHat will be driving home Sunday or Monday.

Am i the only one who figured out who GreyHat is?. 

[87storms]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly this isn’t the kind of setup that gets resolved until inside 72 hours. Maybe 48. And honestly this exact type setup when we’re waiting on a surface redevelopment associated with NS phasing and an amplifying upper low…is some of our biggest last minute busts. A recent example was March 8 2018.  Expecting 4-8” across Maryland 12 hours out and the whole thing developed late and totally missed us. And I could rattle off more examples both good and bad. Similar one in 1996 and the other way. We went to bed expecting nothing and a NJ northeast storm and we got 6-10”.   This is not a long track type thing. Even if it looked great at 48 hours I’d be hella nervous. Just warning y’all in case we get some kind of consensus in the next day or two…I still wouldn’t feel great. These type setups historically have given the models fits right up until game time. And unfortunately the typical error is for things to get going slower and shift northeast at the end. Not always. I have an example that developed southwest of guidance but it was 30 years ago!  

We’re due for a successful implementation of cold chasing a late phasing Miller B