January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, stormtracker said:

In a normal year, maybe.  This year?   For me, lock in time is 84 hours or less

Agreed. There seems to be this secondary hill around the HR 84-90 time-frame this year.

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

In a normal year, maybe.  This year?   For me, lock in time is 84 hours or less

That’s tomorrow. I really like our trend

[mitchnick]

Thru 240hrs on the Eps. This year, it signals a blizzard!

[AlexD1990]

Getting close to the mute button… 

You haven't already ?

Do it. You’ll feel so much better

THIS! had that dumb fuck on ignore for 5plus years if not longer . Now if people would just stop. Quoting. His. Dumb. Ass. Posts.

Ignore him and please don’t stop doing that.  The whole board would rather you post more and Ji post less.

This x1000. Brooklyn, PLEASE keep posting. I love reading your posts and thoughts. I see you in a thread, I start to pay attention

I get that it’s his schtick but jfc

It stopped being funny 15 years ago. Why do we still humor it?

That’ll never happen unless forced to. 

Certainly wouldn't mind that in the least. Even on his FB page he's not this much of a troll. I will never understand why so many people just put up with it, and even tell others to not confront him about his bullshit.


Sorry for the banter in what is going to be hopefully a storm thread very soon, but this is annoying. His posts make the thread borderline unreadable, and his tired "act" is beyond bothersome. I'm 36, and he's been doing this exact same bullshit since I was fucking 12 on WrightWeather. Why do we continue to humor it? The ignore button is nice, but doesn't work when others who for some unfathomable reason find him "funny " repeatedly quote his posts.

I know I've done nothing but have a moment of catharsis, so I'll happily step down and go back to lurking, reading and learning more. A lesson JI should have learned decades ago.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[MDScienceTeacher]

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Don’t really know what you mean as that seems like a reasonable spread for a weekish out. Really just shows a good signal for a coastal 

Yeah I guess.  In all honesty I hadn’t seen the euro when I posted this. If I had and saw the favorable trend I probably wouldn’t have posted this.  Even at hr 120 we are still in a progressive flow so I guess it makes sense for the ensembles to be in so far apart.  In past events we have seen much more agreement but in almost all of those cases we have had a favorable Atlantic.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thru 240hrs on the Eps. This year, it signals a blizzard!

the 12z AI looked like it had a monster brewing at 360

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS supports deeper  trough in east with late week storm.  Much deeper than 0Z.

[mattie g]

43 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Getting close to the mute button… 

Clicked it like 10 years ago, but people keep quoting…

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 12z AI looked like it had a monster brewing at 360

It's cold enough, but the cold push may have been too much, idk. Sadly, it'll be gone in 6hrs like so many threats on the AI. Had it not given us more than the operational at 12z, I would have said I hate it. 

[Eskimo Joe]

20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS supports deeper  trough in east with late week storm.  Much deeper than 0Z.

Both the EPS and GEFS pop a stronger west coast ridge, and it's sharper as well. That's a good sign.

[Amped]

Surprised the Euro and eps is this close. I thought this was gonna be a gfs fantasy storm.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy shit. let's go

Closing off in the OV? Let's capture this bish and vertically stack it. Lfg.

[WxUSAF]

Don’t want to Deb and I haven’t been able to look at closely at any 12z guidance, but I still think a good ULL passage is a simpler and cleaner way to a 1-3” maybe 2-4” type event. Multiple phasing shortwaves in a Nina with a kicker in the mix and no upstream blocking to slow things down seems like a recipe for last minute heartbreak. Throw in a mid precursor airmass. You know I’m rooting for the unicorn, but I’ll take a simple layup.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

i think its the stupid kicker. the GFS gives it more time to phase

Wave spacing

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

yea euro is garbage

Go play in a puddle for a few hours.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t want to Deb and I haven’t been able to look at closely at any 12z guidance, but I still think a good ULL passage is a simpler and cleaner way to a 1-3” maybe 2-4” type event. Multiple phasing shortwaves in a Nina with a kicker in the mix and no upstream blocking to slow things down seems like a recipe for last minute heartbreak. Throw in a mid precursor airmass. You know I’m rooting for the unicorn, but I’ll take a simple layup.

3"-5" that hangs around is better than 8"-12" that's gone in 3 days.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

3"-5" that hangs around is better than 8"-12" that's gone in 3 days.

no it is certainly not

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wave spacing

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I will say that kicker is a more layman-friendly term...Like to me it's makes sense because I can visualize what it's doing and why we need it to not do that/do much less of it.

[SnowenOutThere]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Both the EPS and GEFS pop a stronger west coast ridge, and it's sharper as well. That's a good sign.

And higher heights upstream as well 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I will say that kicker is a more layman-friendly term...Like to me it's makes sense because I can visualize what it's doing and why we need it to not do that/do much less of it.

I know. Im just having fun with it since someone posted how improper it was to use that term. Its a hobby board and yes 100% more user friendly. 

[CAPE]

Worlds apart for (my?) storm. 

The energy in the flow overtop the ridge has a different orientation on the Euro than the GFS and flattens the ridge some, resulting in minimal interaction/ phasing further west. Without that and still a positive tilt that far east, its surprising the Euro is even close- offshore at our latitude but actually scrapes the coast of the Carolinas. EPS supports the Op run for the most part- offshore but a glancing blow for the coast. Close enough, and still 9 days out.

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Worlds apart for (my?) storm. 

The energy in the flow overtop the ridge has a different orientation on the Euro than the GFS and flattens the ridge some, resulting in minimal interaction/ phasing further west. Without that and still a positive tilt that far east, its surprising the Euro is even close- offshore at our latitude but actually scrapes the coast of the Carolinas. EPS supports the Op run for the most part- offshore but a glancing blow for the coast. Close enough, and still 9 days out.

And then you have what is unresolved about the late-week storm before it. Gotta imagine we won't know about this one until we get closer to that one!

[GreyHat]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Worlds apart for (my?) storm. 

The energy in the flow overtop the ridge has a different orientation on the Euro than the GFS and flattens the ridge some, resulting in minimal interaction/ phasing further west. Without that and still a positive tilt that far east, its surprising the Euro is even close- offshore at our latitude but actually scrapes the coast of the Carolinas. EPS supports the Op run for the most part- offshore but a glancing blow for the coast. Close enough, and still 9 days out.

I posted the GFS as it was showing this days ago. The trough is wide and positive tilted and the L goes off the NC coast after giving them some snow. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Side note...Had no idea Cranky onTwitter had rebranded himself to ContentWeatherGuy a few years ago, lolol

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

I posted the GFS as it was showing this days ago. The trough is wide and positive tilted and the L goes off the NC coast after giving them some snow. 

Not sure this makes much sense, but hey, congrats on your revelation.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro is close but without cold air we’re relying on the storm bombing out in the right spot to bring in enough cold air, like the GFS shows. 

Yes

as depicted the low would have to be east of our longitude  before snow will fall 

[Ji]

Not sure this makes much sense, but hey, congrats on your revelation.

lol

[Terpeast]

Looking ahead to jan 25+, eps moved to gefs in a big way. Ridging building to the west coast instead of digging a trough there. Makes the Jan 22-25 SE ridge very temporary (few days) before we reload. Hope that holds and think it will since mjo is progged to make a strong incursion into 7 then maybe 8

[NorthArlington101]

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looking ahead to jan 25+, eps moved to gefs in a big way. Ridging building to the west coast instead of digging a trough there. Makes the Jan 22-25 SE ridge very temporary (few days) before we reload. Hope that holds and think it will since mjo is progged to make a strong incursion into 7 then maybe 8

SE ridge has been over modeled for 5 months. It’ll change eventually, but I’d bet on persistence until then.