January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Terpeast]

HH gfs still trying some shenanigans on the 15th. Big -NAO block. We’re not out of this yet. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

HH gfs still trying some shenanigans on the 15th. Big -NAO block. We’re not out of this yet. 

upper levels always seem to look good...then you look at the surface and its like.....what??

[Ji]

things out of sync but it wound take a whole lot

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

What day should we come back?

December 2087 

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I never understood the pattern delayed line because the same models that hinted at a pattern are the same ones not hinting at one so in reality there is no pattern change until there is one thus nothing is delayed. 

I can convince myself of it.   

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

HH gfs still trying some shenanigans on the 15th. Big -NAO block. We’re not out of this yet. 

Been thinking this all day. It’s been trying and doesn’t seem impossible. Just need a few tweaks to reel something in. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Been thinking this all day. It’s been trying and doesn’t seem impossible. Just need a few tweaks to reel something in. 

Yep. At 8-10 days out, it won’t take much. We’ve seen way bigger changes at upper levels at less than 5 days out. Unlike some certain folks, I don’t care what the surface shows at that range. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Been thinking this all day. It’s been trying and doesn’t seem impossible. Just need a few tweaks to reel something in. 

the problem is we havent seen one model..not one give us a snowstorm in this time range. 

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It's been uncanny how several threats that look so promising while looking at 500mb end up just like that. Gfs had one last night.

 

4 hours ago, Ji said:

yea too many people think if there is a circle in the middle atlantic it has to mean big storm

 

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

upper levels always seem to look good...then you look at the surface and its like.....what??

I'd love to hear you get out of this one....

[Solution Man]

37 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

December 2087 

I’ll lock it in

[Heisy]

things out of sync but it wound take a whole lot

You well need a better push S from that ULL in AE Canada or it just acts as a low in the lakes type deal.

If you want some morale boost here is end of euro Ai, I’d take this




.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

You well need a better push S from that ULL in AE Canada or it just acts as a low in the lakes type deal.

If you want some morale boost here is end of euro Ai, I’d take this




.

We sure can use it. If there's anything we need, it's morals.

[T. August]

18z gfs was so close to a weenie run honestly

[mitchnick]

What's amazing to me is how ENE was getting several inches on ensemble snowfall maps, but they are even cut back to barely an inch or 2. Crazy.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What's amazing to me is how ENE was getting several inches on ensemble snowfall maps, but they are even cut back to barely an inch or 2. Crazy.

That run was close to delivering at least 3 events by day 16.

I think it’s just a matter of time until we are keying in on a specific trackable storm.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That run was close to delivering at least 3 events by day 16.

I think it’s just a matter of time until we are keying in on a specific trackable storm.

With all the cold air we've had and is progged to return, it would be the statistical anomaly of the last 100 years if the MA and ENE would continue near snowless for the rest of the winter.

Otoh, it wouldn't shock me if we did, but central/southern VA and parts of NC cash in. That's textbook Niña of late and consistent with the "what  happens in December the winter will remember" saying.

[Chris78]

If those vorts played nicer together this definitely could of been a better outcome at the surface.

[JenkinsJinkies]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

With all the cold air we've had and is progged to return, it would be the statistical anomaly of the last 100 years if the MA and ENE would continue near snowless for the rest of the winter.

Otoh, it wouldn't shock me if we did, but central/southern VA and parts of NC cash in. That's textbook Niña of late and consistent with the "what  happens in December the winter will remember" saying.

DCA had accumulating snow in December, in fact it was just shy of the 1991-2020 climo average. Statistically the region shouldn’t be shut out for the rest of the season with that to go off of. Hitting climo is a different story but no more snow at all? Seems far fetched.

 

Also the last time DCA had measurable snow in December there was also measurable snow the following March. Wasn’t that long ago either, 2017-18.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI EPS 7 day height anomalies ending 21st.

[CAPE]

I still think there is a shot mid month but like I said yesterday this window is by far the best h5 look. Dry for now on the mean but there is moisture lurking from the Gulf to the mid south. Long way to go.

[Blizzard of 93]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I still think there is a shot mid month but like I said yesterday this window is by far the best h5 look. Dry for now on the mean but there is moisture lurking from the Gulf to the mid south. Long way to go.

18z AI EPS also likes the 20th period.

[Ji]

So we are all set then

Jan 20-21 secs

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

So we are all set then

Jan 20-21 secs

Sad east coast society? 

[87storms]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

So we are all set then

Jan 20-21 secs

We may have no choice, but to accept a snowstorm during that timeframe.

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

So we are all set then

Jan 20-21 secs

Sad that it's come down to making appointments for secs 2 weeks in advance.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

So we are all set then

Jan 20-21 secs

I'd put higher probability on it. Or the time afterward, Jan 20-30 period. 

It's not much of a risk that the N. Pacific ridge currently extending into Alaska and the Arctic circle on models will trend into -PNA, donsoutherland has done research that 45-day -PNA periods in the winter, like the one we just had flip to +PNA 80% of the time afterwards. Also, there is a kelvin wave starting to move warm water across the ENSO-subsurface, and I have found that correlates to more +pna conditions as it happens. Greater probability is that the N. pacific ridge ends up north with a low even undercutting it, vs the opposite, imo. 

[winter_warlock]

 We're gonna get a massive biblical historic blizzard on January 32nd!!

[bncho]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 We're gonna get a massive biblical historic blizzard on January 32nd!!

That's my birthday! Jan 32, 2026!

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

That's my birthday! Jan 32, 2026!

Lmaooo

[pazzo83]

9 hours ago, stormy said:

I'm from St. Louis..............  I want to measure it in my gauge.  A "soaker" must be more than an inch.  A quarter inch only lays the dust for about 36 hrs..

St Louis averages about the same amount of annual precip as most of our area....