January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, Ephesians2 said:

Sorry if this has already been posted here. 

I like it!!!

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

And with the 1st of January projected to be very warm, they are going with a big pattern change for the 2nd half of the month:

 

PNA has been negative every day this Winter since Dec 1st. LR models have it going positive for the 2nd half of January:

If the CPC is right, it could actually get very cold Jan 20-30. 

I guess that's our 1985 look.   Now we just need the moisture.  

[winter_warlock]

  Latest wpc for the Jan 4th event..

[Weather Will]

0Z NAM ticked south...no dice.  Wishing all of you a Healthy and Happy 2026!!!!  And a Blizzard or Two!!!

[Ephesians2]

It's within striking distance for DC south, we just need temperatures to trend down a few degrees

[Terpeast]

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

0Z NAM ticked south...no dice.  Wishing all of you a Healthy and Happy 2026!!!!  And a Blizzard or Two!!!

Nam may have ticked south, but based on 500mb vort it took one step closer to the euro. Northern stream vort is sharper and more south. The ss vort shifted south too, but if it stays north like 18z, then there will be more interaction.

[Eskimo Joe]

18z RGEM was north?

[bncho]

Thank God we have something to track. Even though I knew this early-January period might not work out, I was still kinda getting a little bit restless.

[notvirga!]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

I guess that's our 1985 look.   Now we just need the moisture.  

Wasn’t Jan 85 bone dry?

[bncho]

ICON is much better. More north. 18z vs 0z down below.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z RGEM was north?

Negative

[TSSN+]

Some models go north some go south. 72ish hours out. Sad 

[EastCoast NPZ]

33 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Wasn’t Jan 85 bone dry?

Yes, it was here at least.  

[CAPE]

0z GFS continues to keep the NS and SS energy completely separated with no sharpness to the NS shortwave, so no dice.

[CAPE]

Quite the battle between the Euro and the GFS as to the outcome. Its either a nothing burger or a light 1-3" event for at least parts of the region.

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, notvirga! said:

Wasn’t Jan 85 bone dry?

Sorta, 2.27", with 0.63" of that falling on the last day of the month. 4.5" of snow, but boy was it cold! Especially on 1/21, -19 that morning, a -4.2 for the month. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Quite the battle between the Euro and the GFS as to the outcome. Its either a nothing burger or a light 1-3" event for at least parts of the region.

Going to lean on the nothing burger 

[CAPE]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Going to lean on the nothing burger 

Up your way, probably a good bet regardless of which model is more correct.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Happy New Years from the 0z GFS

[Ji]

Happy New Years from the 0z GFS

Mitch will love this. Jan 16 and still a huge se ridge

[Dabuckeyes]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Mitch will love this. Jan 16 and still a huge se ridge

 

[anotherman]

Happy New Years from the 0z GFS

Not cool. Rubbing salt in the wound.

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Mitch will love this. Jan 16 and still a huge se ridge

Still snows at the end of the run, lol

[CAPE]

HNY.

Guess what? Weather is changeable in the midlatitudes. Crazy shit huh?

[SnowenOutThere]

0z Euro is worse. NS completely crushes instead of partial phase for Jan 4th. Happy 2026

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

0z Euro is worse. NS completely crushes instead of partial phase for Jan 4th. Happy 2026

Delicate enough setup that it willing to wait til Friday night runs to call it dead. 
 

Happy New Year and good luck to those who try and stay up for any squall action tonight!

[Ji]

Euro looks like crap