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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs say that. Eps says otherwise and Geps is back and forth resulting in near normal.

Sounds like a normal transitional period where models struggle while weenies use every change as a reason to cliff dive. I guess this really is everyone's first winter on these boards

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3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Sounds like a normal transitional period where models struggle while weenies use every change as a reason to cliff dive. I guess this really is everyone's first winter on these boards

Don't forget that excitement was initiated by the click-baiting internet mets. And remember I posted in response to a decent 5H on the Eps it was important to know how it got there.

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

06z Euro tries to give some light snow north of I-66 on New Years' Day. Wouldn't be much, a coating to one inch at most, but it would be great to get something.

No support for it so ya toss 

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8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't forget that excitement was initiated by the click-baiting internet mets. And remember I posted in response to a decent 5H on the Eps it was important to know how it got there.

True but all it really means to me is we don't know yet what's going to happen. All we do know is that Ji will act like an asshat and Bob Chill will think its funny 

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

As the Aleutian ridge dies and the jet extends, western Canada’s major cold pool will get eroded. But once the EPO ridge establishes cross polar flow, it will rebuild quickly. We’re not getting some super charged PAC jet blasting into Alberta and totally torching the continent.

Well said. Here's the visualization:

 

 

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6 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z GFS at D10 actually a decent attempt at something

0z EPS has a very nice look for Jan 9 and lo and behold the GFS just misses a big phasing coastal at that time and the GGEM is about to go full Jan 2016 on our asses at the same time. 

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I don’t have much to add other than people much more knowledgeable than I were saying 2nd week of January was when things would get active. Not sure why people are freaking out. It sucks to waste a week but it is what it is. We’ve been in much worse situations at this time in the season, with zero snowfall.

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2 minutes ago, T. August said:

I don’t have much to add other than people much more knowledgeable than I were saying 2nd week of January was when things would get active. Not sure why people are freaking out. It sucks to waste a week but it is what it is. We’ve been in much worse situations at this time in the season, with zero snowfall.

It's understandable to a point, we've been stuck in a nearly decade long pattern of fails and heart breaking last minute rug pulls. That being said, the hissy fits over a single op model run beyond HR240 not showing a Top 10 Miller A are exhausting.

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