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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty decent pattern as we go into early January. This is a 5 day mean from EPS….note how all the lower heights are now down south. Going to be more receptive to potential coastal storms

image.png.18bba3a4bf56701c1e1f906a27343b39.png

This is from Will on SNE.  I like the look IMO

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion
 
Eric is very excited about the snow potential for the Mid Atlantic Jan 6 th to the 11 th  
 
 
This pattern has real big dog potential, esp in the Mid-Atlantic.
 
Very El Niño-esque here with the Pacific trough & -NAO coupled with a strong subtropical jet. The strong subtropical jet is a lagged effect from the big MJO event over the Indo-Pacific in late Nov & early Dec.
 
 
 
 
 
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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That west coast trough suggests to me we get a progressive flow. But what does this weenie know?

I think that may limit like big dog potential... but 4-8" type storms very much in play looking at that

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

Yummy 

 

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I was trying to figure out why the snowfall mean onbthe Eps was as low as it was for that period and it has 850's AN. As a result, the decent snowfall on the Eps is further north into central PA. Actually, I'm sorta surprised by the AN 850's considering that 5H look, but maybe we disregard 850's at this point and live in denial.

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Jokes aside, if there is any month that doesn't require perfection or even "good" to snow, it's Jan. Doesn't look like east ridge hell anywhere on guidance. Just need activity. Jan can be on the dry side compared to Feb/Mar but it can also be active. I never lost optimism in Jan producing and odds seem above avg for a couple events. Luck and chaos will figure it out as usual lol

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I don’t usually start paying attention to thermals until less than a week out. Models don’t do as good a job with low level temperatures compared to 500mb beyond a week. It’s a well known warm bias with the euro weeklies. 

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7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t usually start paying attention to thermals until less than a week out. Models don’t do as good a job with low level temperatures compared to 500mb beyond a week. It’s a well known warm bias with the euro weeklies. 

That's the scientific reason not to worry about them, but what do you suggest for weenie paranoia? 

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It was a fairly crappy week weather-wise (especially if you wanted whiteness for Christmas), but after the first half of Dec and now 1st half of Jan looking better, I be happy. Super rare we go wall to wall with cold and snow, there's always a warm/dry spell at some point, sadly it was Christmas week this year. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Very Nino-ish look, especially D10-15, on the EPS.  

To be frank it makes me nervous.  We want the pac jet to extend enough to keep the Aleutian ridge at bay but too much and North American cold goes bye bye.  It's a delicate balance.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

To be frank it makes me nervous.  We want the pac jet to extend enough to keep the Aleutian ridge at bay but too much and North American cold goes bye bye.  It's a delicate balance.

It is.  The EPS does show that a lot of Canada is AN or well AN.  But it's January.  That's still plenty cold air.  It's not like central Canada is in the 30s/40s during that period, which is when we're really up shit creek.   

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15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's the scientific reason not to worry about them, but what do you suggest for weenie paranoia? 

Probably 3 members have us in the 80s so it screws it all up….weenie answer :)

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