January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

Time to ring in the new year with a new thread. December managed to produce an above average snowfall month for many. What does the new year bring? The patter looks active the first week with the potential for a clipper to start off and more larger synoptic scale events towards the end of the 1st week.

[WinterWolf]

Way to go Bob…let’s make it a Jammin January for SNE/New England. 

[Kitz Craver]

EURO and GFS both feature the NYD clippah. Let’s keep some pack going through the Rainer and start to stack it up! Lots of opportunity on modeling moving forward 

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty decent pattern as we go into early January. This is a 5 day mean from EPS….note how all the lower heights are now down south. Going to be more receptive to potential coastal storms

[Baroclinic Zone]

Upcoming cutter sort of sets the stage for our new years potential. Storm sets of confluence to our north not allowing system to cut west. I see it as a clipper right now unless the upcoming storm retrogrades fast enough to to allow heights to build ahead of clipper.

[ORH_wxman]

That’s not a particularly cold pattern shown with the lower heights over AK but it’s not a torch for us either because of NAO blocking. It’s occurring during a favorable climatological period too where the averages are already pretty cold. 
 

Weeklies have been rebuilding the WPO/EPO ridge after that though which would bring more reinforcing cold air if it verified. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation discussed in the ending pages of the prior monthly thread

In terms of standard confidence for this range?  above normal for +PNA related event(s).   Doesn't mean something can't break favorably prior to but from a holistic/all-inclusive field application the front and end of that time range above is the still blurry focus - which means we are free to move it some if needed. 

I'm not sure about events within the first week itself... That's a modulation time and yes ... events tend to happen when there's big mass-field modulations, but in this case it's gradual improvement of probability from the 1st to 7th ( as in lower to higher). It's almost like the previous pattern resists but then snaps all at once along that range.  We'll see how it goes

Beyond that's the entry into the weeklies which I find are less useful

[Henry's Weather]

I am in Paris from the 1st to the 9th, so I would bet on a major storm within that window…

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully we ravage when I come back on 1/7.

[Typhoon Tip]

And note the complete disappearance of the erstwhile N. Pac. .... emerging +PNA/W. N/A low amplitude height response;  may in fact be underdone as this is still an emerging signal. I suspect that to be case. 

[Damage In Tolland]

43 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

EURO and GFS both feature the NYD clippah. Let’s keep some pack going through the Rainer and start to stack it up! Lots of opportunity on modeling moving forward 

I know someone who  thinks 50 and rain Monday 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I know someone who  thinks 50 and rain Monday 

Yep 

[Damage In Tolland]

We all sell

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully we ravage when I come back on 1/7.

Where you going?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Where you going?

St John. Leaving the 31. Hopefully not missing much.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

St John. Leaving the 31. Hopefully not missing much.

Lock in big miller B for that 1/5-1/6 signal. 

[weatherwiz]

A lot to like about the pattern moving through January. Have to hope stuff times right but liking the signal for some coastal potential. 

[Kitz Craver]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know someone who  thinks 50 and rain Monday 

It’ll get up there, hopefully it doesn’t wipe this lovely pack out

[Go Kart Mozart]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

St John. Leaving the 31. Hopefully not missing much.

Ah, New Brunswick is beautiful this time of year.

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’ll get up there, hopefully it doesn’t wipe this lovely pack out

Hopefully the cold air is stubborn and we get a good glaze on top.

[SnowGoose69]

JB with yet another totally random X post lol.  He says only 5 Januarys since 75 with the MJO spending 23 or more days in the null phase.  All were quite cold in the East/MW/Plains.  80 82 96 00 03.  Problem with that post is who knows if the BOMM/EPS are possibly accurate out that far and only 1 of those 5 years comes close to our current ENSO (96)

[WinterWolf]

50 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Ah, New Brunswick is beautiful this time of year.

I was thinking that exact same thing.  

[Snowcrazed71]

I've posted something on here before from this guy. His site is NEWA. I said it before and I'll say it again, I like everything he has to say and follow him. He's not like the other guys on social media. He never hypes anything and he works really hard on his forecasts. This is his outlook for January ( and has been for the last month ) 

LOOKING AHEAD — A QUICK NOTE TO OUR FOLLOWERS

As we turn the page into January, I want to take a moment to reflect on the past few weeks. Earlier this month, I mentioned that the pattern looked colder and stormier heading into late December and early January. As me, there were plenty of opinions about whether that could be anticipated in advance — but in the end, the pattern evolved much as expected, and many locations are now sitting close to normal snowfall for December after a slow start.

The training I received in meteorology is a little different from how many others were schooled. My background comes from an operational environment — the kind where most of your audience is on a Bird Farm and decisions have real-world consequences. That approach emphasizes pattern recognition, forward-leaning awareness, and mission-focused forecasting. I understand that not everyone is accustomed to that style, and that’s okay — different backgrounds produce different perspectives.

What I don’t have much interest in entertaining anymore is the “Bitching Betty” routine that surfaces every time a forecast call is made. This page isn’t about arguing or defending every decision — it’s about providing meaningful guidance for the people who value the broader perspective and the work that goes into it.

As we move into 2026, I’ll be honoring my commitment to continue posting here — but I’ll also be tightening the focus of what I share. You will see fewer key updates and fewer broader pattern discussions here on Facebook — those will be reserved for the Dashboard and Contractor platforms, where the full depth of my work belongs.

Please understand — this isn’t a decision made out of anger. It’s simply that, after years of unnecessary bickering in the comments, I’m ready for a cleaner slate and a more constructive environment going into the new year. I want the energy I put into forecasting to go where it’s valued most.

I’ll leave you with this: watch for a couple of attempts at Polar Vortex disruptions in January — likely more of the stretched-type events rather than full displacements. We’ll be tracking those signals closely on the platforms.

To everyone who follows along, supports the mission, and engages in good faith — thank you. Your interest and trust are sincerely appreciated, and I look forward to navigating the new year together.

— Northeast Weather Alert

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gonna do a December wrap/January preview post soon...bottom line is the latter December/early Jan Pacific trough regime/strenthening PV verified, but the warm up has been abbreviated since the Strat has remained uncoupled from the troposphere....so we have maintained NAO blocking.

+PNA remains the theme of January...that has not changed since the fall, but it may end up having more neg NAO than the +TNH expectation given the Strat/troposphere uncoupling.

[Typhoon Tip]

Huh? 

welcome to the internet, I guess.   wtf

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still expect another major Strat disruption and split in Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, if the next big storm whiffs, I am going to absolutely lose it...lo and behold, I am one of the few spots that managed a below average snowfall December with 8". North, west, south and east/northeast...porked in every direction.

This is why I'm not thrilled with the +PNA/-NAO combo.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, if the next big storm whiffs, I am going to absolutely lose it...lo and behold, I am one of the few spots that managed a below average snowfall December with 8". North, west, south and east/northeast...porked in every direction.

6” here. BN as well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6” here. BN as well. 

My gut tells me I wish we'd lose the NAO.

Largest event on the season is 3"....only reason I'm not tits up already is it came right before xmas.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My gut tells me I wish we'd lose the NAO.

Some of this was just luck too. Cape getting 6” of wet snow a couple weeks ago and 2” here. Definitely feels like we left some on the table with such a cold month.