January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[jbenedet]

EC AIFS saying “what cold” in the east with all that cold to back into in the central conus.

 

wow.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I’m not sure it’s going warmer but I think that risk is higher than colder from here.

I folded and now I’m wait and see..

 

It's okay man. I'm definitely no professional, just a weather enthusiast like most of us on here. It has really changed and morphed over the last 3 or 4 days. I'm sure this makes it very interesting for all you professionals to follow and forecast.

[Spaizzo]

James would be loving this…


.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man, I'm so confused by you. You were adamant that this was going to be south of us. You were absolutely sure this was going to stay south of us. Now you're suggesting that it's going to go north and trend warmer. Hmmmm.....

In other words they haven't got a clue. They were so convinced it would stay south so now they're going the opposite way. 

Also MJO will be progressing into 8 so no idea what that has anything to do with it.

Pattern is pretty cut and dry to me. You have a widespread Arctic airmass stretched across and energy plowing into it. It's like a SWFE on steroids. 

[jbenedet]

EC AIFS definitely saying balance is toward warmer solution in the east from here.

Just seeing the low level cold anoms increase in the central CONUS and greatly relative to the east coast is pretty telling.

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

EC AIFS saying “what cold” in the east with all that cold to back into in the central conus.

 

wow.

It's cold north of the storm track, and warm south of the track.  Is this surprising?

[jbenedet]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

It's cold north of the storm track, and warm south of the track.  Is this surprising?

Wrong take. 
 

Anyway….I said my piece.

 

We watch 12z

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Wrong take. 
 

Anyway….I said my piece.

 

We watch 12z

I do see that. I may be in trouble but 6z Euro was slightly better in that regard vs 0z. Wouldn't be surprised in either direction at 12z

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

DT nervous?

His last post looks like he said he was going to bed because this was becoming hazardous to his health 

[The 4 Seasons]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

DT nervous?

I was in the M/A and Southeastern sub forums this morning and they were cliff diving

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

EC AIFS saying “what cold” in the east with all that cold to back into in the central conus.

 

wow.

Looks plenty cold up here...

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

In other words they haven't got a clue. They were so convinced it would stay south so now they're going the opposite way. 

Also MJO will be progressing into 8 so no idea what that has anything to do with it.

Pattern is pretty cut and dry to me. You have a widespread Arctic airmass stretched across and energy plowing into it. It's like a SWFE on steroids. 

It's going to have to fly..it was in phase 6 3 days ago.

[MuddyWx]

The iphone weather app knew

[dryslot]

Getting more members further north on the 06Z EPS.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks plenty cold up here...

-6 anomaly in January isn’t exactly mild.

[weatherwiz]

Was looking around at some overnight lows last night and saw ABE put up a -9 lol...no way that can be right?

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Getting more members further north on the 06Z EPS.

Wow, way more

[ariof]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was looking around at some overnight lows last night and saw ABE put up a -9 lol...no way that can be right?

KABE must be in a rad pit but checks out. At 1330Z there are still a bunch of negatives showing up nearby.

[CoastalWx]

There’s gonna be plenty cold around.

[Typhoon Tip]

Guys, I'm not sure I'm following you ... but, the MJO doesn't effect the weather pattern in a direct way. 

It's a pattern augmentation, granted - but there is a lag.   Phases that are in situ, take time to for the correlations - if those are not being suppressed.  That's the other thing... if the hemisphere is in a negative interference, the MJO's conditional

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Wow, way more

Probably not done either.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ariof said:

KABE must be in a rad pit but checks out. At 1330Z there are still a bunch of negatives showing up nearby.

Crazy...looks like they dropped like 5 degrees around 4-5. Gotta love these nights with clear skies and HP 

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

DT nervous?

EPS killed the radio star

[MuddyWx]

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Willing to bet this bombs out near Long Island and buries the region in feet of snow. Model trend is baby steps towards that end result. If this drops to 980 instead of 998, look out.

So close to the vest, as usual...

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Guys, I'm not sure I'm following you ... but, the MJO doesn't effect the weather pattern in a direct way. 

It's a pattern augmentation, granted - but there is a lag.   Phases that are in situ, take time to for the correlations - if those are not being suppressed.  That's the other thing... if the hemisphere is in a negative interference, the MJO's conditional

Yep

[nbweather]

Realistically, how far north can this come? Impressive trend for increasing heights and less confluence out ahead. 0z and 6z ECMWF track the 850mb low to the eastern Great Lakes before the coastal reflection takes over off of the ME coast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Guys, I'm not sure I'm following you ... but, the MJO doesn't effect the weather pattern in a direct way. 

It's a pattern augmentation, granted - but there is a lag.   Phases that are in situ, take time to for the correlations - if those are not being suppressed.  That's the other thing... if the hemisphere is in a negative interference, the MJO's conditional

If there is lag that implies more of an impact bc it's moving out of the MC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep

Constructive/deconstructive interference is an impact.

[Digityman]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Getting more members further north on the 06Z EPS.

Tickle Tickle