January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[George001]

It is looking increasingly likely that this upcoming blizzard will be the biggest region wide event since Jan 29th 2022.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

It is looking increasingly likely that this upcoming blizzard will be the biggest region wide event since Jan 29th 2022.

We'll need good northern stream involvement with that late phase-in of extra energy to get blizzard into the equation (kind of like what CMC shows)....otherwise I'm not seeing the wind criteria. We need to get that sfc low a lot closer to tighten the pressure gradient. 

[OrangeCTWX]

2 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Definitely an improvement. Though still just a scrap for SNE.

Hope we actually can improve considerably on this though.  There has got to be a limit with how far north this can go..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

It is looking increasingly likely that this upcoming blizzard will be the biggest region wide event since Jan 29th 2022.

So we should expect one of those infamous 60-72” forecasts?

[DavisStraight]

Snow chances and some serious cold, like winter should be.

[DavisStraight]

Lewiston sled shop in the news, you know it dryslot? Says they need another 6 inches for ideal sledding.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

Biggest snowfall I've experienced, March 14-15, 1984 (26.5") began at about 1030 mb and over its near-24h hour dumping, drifted down to about 1017.  To the north there was a very strong cold HP, don't have its mb but the afternoon high on 3/12 was 1°.  CAR 29.0", BGR 22.2".

From up here we'll be watching at a distance while feeding the woodstove.  -20s Sunday morning?

Weakish low but huge isentropic signature served me my biggest snow/dumbest low scenario, Dec 23 1997. 

It was just like a thermonuclear S-bomb was smuggled out of Siberia.     The forecast?  1-3 of slush in the Worcester Hills, ranging to just cat paws in Boston. 

16.5" fell in 5 hours in Acton Ma, 7" of which fell in a single hour. I still vividly recall standing outside at the base of my driveway and not being able to see my house.  Totals as high as 23" fell not to far gone as the crow chokes from falling snow up by Pepperil.   Never before, nor since have I seen 7" fall in a 1 hr... made inimically worse because 2 or 3" fell in the hours immediately preceding and following - just sort of went from 4 low visibility fast inches to 7 in blindness.  Where ever you were, you were basically hosed and froze in amber, with another 5" yet coming. 

I've heard of 12"/hr falling in Sierra events ... Italian Alps .. etc, where a direct marine moisture source is being jammed over terrain... but we're down here on a coastal plain.   That clear sky the night before was fuck-up forecast exhibit A.  It was supposed to have been cloudy... But it was dead calm, crystal clear, with a 37/25 type air mass in situ.  By the time the cirrus veil's edge like slate arrived at dawn it was 13 to 19F everywhere.  Exhibit B was the ETA was forecasting a sounding of like +2/+1/-3 at 980, 900, 800 mb respectively, at Logan.  Umm.. it's going to be colder west of the city... hello.  Meanwhile,  damming signature in the PP nosing down from the direction of Fryeburg Maine - you know ... like the perfect not going to get warm you ding dongs orientation?   QPF was what it was, .8 to 1.0", but with UVM (upward vertical velocity) close 20! 

I've often heard it said, "well the modeling standards of the day..."  but I disagree.   That sounding and those constraints I just described were going to be snow a million years ago. 1-3" of slush my ass.   I remember emailing Harvey Leonard, who I was interning with at the time, and telling him, ah... people better think twice.   

I was completely wrong!  I completely missed 16 to 24" out of that         (ps, I'm pretty sure Ray got 15 - ) 

[vortex95]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah good bump N on the goofus

 

12z GFS 1" DCA, 18z GFS  13".  What a piece of crap.

And had zippo for SNE 12z and now 18z trying to do some weenie lagging trough thingee for ern MA.  CoastalWx will be pleased!

 

[vortex95]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Now there are zero OP models that cleanly whiff SNE. 18z GFS is still kind of a cruddy solution that would prob be about 1-3" of arctic sand (except for the coke streamers on the south shore and Cape Ann), but it's a pretty hefty bump north. 

Trend is your friend!?

[WxWatcher007]

Beautiful crescent moon tonight. Should get frigid. Midnight high of 25.6° but daytime high of 23.2°. 

18.9°/2.0 now

[ineedsnow]

GEFS bumping up qpf again

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

12z GFS 1" DCA, 18z GFS  13".  What a piece of crap.

And had zippo for SNE 12z and now 18z trying to do some weenie lagging trough thingee for ern MA.  CoastalWx will be pleased!

 

It’s like the purple teletubby waving to him offshore.

[TheSnowman]

I just asked AI if there were Any videos of December 23, 1997 during the famous hour of heavy snow, it said No.  Though it could describe the event very well.  NOT as well as our man Tip though!  I have no recollection of it at all; I was probably seeing non-accumulating wet flakes.  

[Typhoon Tip]

18z GFS is partially collapsing toward the earlier consensus.   The 18z Euro should be interesting...   

 

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Weakish low but huge isentropic signature served me my biggest snow/dumbest low scenario, Dec 23 1997. 

It was just like a thermonuclear S-bomb was smuggled out of Siberia.     The forecast?  1-3 of slush in the Worcester Hills, ranging to just cat paws in Boston. 

16.5" fell in 5 hours in Acton Ma, 7" of which fell in a single hour. I still vividly recall standing outside at the base of my driveway and not being able to see my house.  Totals as high as 23" fell not to far gone as the crow chokes from falling snow up by Pepperil.   Never before, nor since have I seen 7" fall in a 1 hr... made inimically worse because 2 or 3" fell in the hours immediately preceding and following - just sort of went from 4 low visibility fast inches to 7 in blindness.  Where ever you were, you were basically hosed and froze in amber, with another 5" yet coming. 

I've heard of 12"/hr falling in Sierra events ... Italian Alps .. etc, where a direct marine moisture source is being jammed over terrain... but we're down here on a coastal plain.   That clear sky the night before was fuck-up forecast exhibit A.  It was supposed to have been cloudy... But it was dead calm, crystal clear, with a 37/25 type air mass in situ.  Exhibit B was the ETA was forecasting a sounding of like +2/+1/-3 at 980, 900, 800 mb respectively, at Logan.  Umm.. it's going to be colder west of the city... hello.  Meanwhile,  damming signature in the PP nosing down from the direction of Fryeburg Maine - you know ... like the perfect not going to get warm you ding dongs?   QPF was what it was, .8 to 1.0", but with UVM (upward vertical velocity) close 20! 

I've often heard it said, "well the modeling standards of the day..."  but I disagree.   That sounding and those constraints I just described were going to be snow a million years ago. 1-3" of slush my ass.   I remember emailing Harvey Leonard, who I was interning with at the time, and telling him, ah... people better think twice.   

I was completely wrong!  I completely missed 16 to 24" out of that  

Dec 23, 1997 is one of the biggest "modern day" busts ev-A for SNE.  Another one is Mar 7-8, 2013 (4-8" at best from the ECMWF, and Blue Hill gets 30!"). Another one?  CoastalWx super favorite - Dec 9. 2005.  100+ mph gusts?  Only in hurricanes do we get that in SNE!  And reliable reports in Andover MA area of SNOINCR 9!  TS+ all over the place.

Dec 23, 1997 the following day BOS Herald front page headline - "THEY BLEW IT!" and have all the OCMs on the previous evening photos (Harvey Leonard was on vacation, so they did not show his photo).  Typical Herald w/ a cheesy headline (it goes way back, Sep 13, 1988 for HU Gilbert front page headline "KILLER'CANE!!!"

Your Acton SNOINCR 7 jibes well w/ the SNOINCR 8 in Ayer MA.  Nice to have verification!

The low itself was rather small and not that deep (1000 m I think)  And there was a little bubble high over nrn ME, which likely played a role in keeping it just cold enough.

This was a watershed event in some regards.  The following year the the SNE Wx Confernce, WFO BOX talked about DGZ.  Totally new concept, at leas to me at the time. Not all snowflakes are created equal!
 

[Typhoon Tip]

I also wouldn't sleep on the 29/30th either... 

The index signature is still there, and there have been some starts and frets by some of these models to hit that...   Man, this speed bias in the flow- I've just about grown sick and tired of it.   It just won't stop. 

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I just asked AI if there were Any videos of December 23, 1997 during the famous hour of heavy snow, it said No.  Though it could describe the event very well.  NOT as well as our man Tip though!  I have no recollection of it at all; I was probably seeing non-accumulating wet flakes.  

See my post I just did on Dec 23. 1997.

[RDRY]

Just going off climatology, the GFS is almost certainly going to correct north. Central Georgia is not seeing two feet of snow.

[Sled]

George says blizzard. That's all I need to hear.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Just going off climatology, the GFS is almost certainly going to correct north. Central Georgia is not seeing two feet of snow.

That’s ip/zr.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I love those "blizzards" with 5-15 mph winds 

[ORH_wxman]

18z GEFS…solid bump

[mattm4242]

56 minutes ago, George001 said:

It is looking increasingly likely that this upcoming blizzard will be the biggest region wide event since Jan 29th 2022.

I just went and bought a snowblower based off of this post 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GEFS…solid bump

.4-.7" qpf throughout SNE gets plowable snow through CNE

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Dec 23, 1997 is one of the biggest "modern day" busts ev-A for SNE.  Another one is Mar 7-8, 2013 (4-8" at best from the ECMWF, and Blue Hill gets 30!"). Another one?  CoastalWx super favorite - Dec 9. 2005.  100+ mph gusts?  Only in hurricanes do we get that in SNE!  And reliable reports in Andover MA area of SNOINCR 9!  TS+ all over the place.

Dec 23, 1997 the following day BOS Herald front page headline - "THEY BLEW IT!" and have all the OCMs on the previous evening photos (Harvey Leonard was on vacation, so they did not show his photo).  Typical Herald w/ a cheesy headline (it goes way back, Sep 13, 1988 for HU Gilbert front page headline "KILLER'CANE!!!"

Your Acton SNOINCR 7 jibes well w/ the SNOINCR 8 in Ayer MA.  Nice to have verification!

The low itself was rather small and not that deep (1000 m I think)  And there was a little bubble high over nrn ME, which likely played a role in keeping it just cold enough.

This was a watershed event in some regards.  The following year the the SNE Wx Confernce, WFO BOX talked about DGZ.  Totally new concept, at leas to me at the time. Not all snowflakes are created equal!
 

Mark Mancuso was still hitting 2-5” in the interior at 630am that morning.

I ended up with 18” (no clearing) in Auburn, NH.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Some nice hits there too with a chunk of left leaning members. 

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Let’s get it to Quebec

Wait until the models catch up with the depth of the cold once we get closer and lucy shows up.

[RDRY]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s ip/zr.

Not that either.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Wait until the models catch up with the depth of the cold once we get closer and lucy shows up.

I’ve been in this camp for days 

[dryslot]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ve been in this camp for days 

Always one of the last things models latch onto.