January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[qg_omega]

35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds pleasant.

Saturday through Sunday, highs near zero and lows -20F .

Friday And Friday Night

Partly cloudy. Highs 10 to 15. Lows around 10 below. 

Saturday Through Sunday

Partly cloudy. Cold. Highs around zero. Lows around 20 below. 

Sunday Night And Monday

Partly cloudy. Lows 10 below to 15 below zero. Highs around 10 above. 

Maybe we can finally freeze the lake 

[kdxken]

37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds pleasant.

Saturday through Sunday, highs near zero and lows -20F .

Friday And Friday Night

Partly cloudy. Highs 10 to 15. Lows around 10 below. 

Saturday Through Sunday

Partly cloudy. Cold. Highs around zero. Lows around 20 below. 

Sunday Night And Monday

Partly cloudy. Lows 10 below to 15 below zero. Highs around 10 above. 

Meh

 

[dryslot]

I'm hoping this gets suppressed right down to RIC.

[CoastalWx]

Let’s bring this north 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s bring this north 

Yeah, your mojo is back. Now that we had one trend in our favor, it’s time to step on the gas, not back off. We can trend this bastard north. Western troughs accessing the gulf. 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, your mojo is back. Now that we had one trend in our favor, it’s time to step on the gas, not back off. We can trend this bastard north. Western troughs accessing the gulf. 

LFG you guys!!! Get vibes and north trends rolling like the olden days. 
 

but don’t start a thread. 

[metagraphica]

Just over halfway through winter and I have 18.1" for the season.  I think that already beats my total for the whole of last year.

If it's gonna be cold over the next couple to few weeks let's get some big azz storms up here.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, your mojo is back. Now that we had one trend in our favor, it’s time to step on the gas, not back off. We can trend this bastard north. Western troughs accessing the gulf. 

It’s like greed. You get one and you want them all. Even in 2015, I was pissed missing the Bruce Willis caution flag storm and I had no right after that stretch to be pissed. But I was lol. 
 

It’s pretty clear suppression is a risk, but man when I see that low coming out of the gulf and then redevelopment off HSE…you do get some movement.

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s bring this north 

 

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, your mojo is back. Now that we had one trend in our favor, it’s time to step on the gas, not back off. We can trend this bastard north. Western troughs accessing the gulf. 

Maybe you should do a radio show, That's usually a KOD.

[powderfreak]

36 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Meh

Ha, right?

100mph at -46F is a trip.

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, your mojo is back. Now that we had one trend in our favor, it’s time to step on the gas, not back off. We can trend this bastard north. Western troughs accessing the gulf. 

It’s good to see Coastal rallying.

”Don’t let us win tonight”… you get one and the outlook changes.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, right?

100mph at -46F is a trip.

127 mph….even worse. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

Maybe you should do a radio show, That's usually a KOD.

If it starts looking like a very big threat, maybe we will do a New England radio show. 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

If it starts looking like a very big threat, maybe we will do a New England radio show. 

That would be good.

[WinterWolf]

50 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I guess you were never in the service.

1800 is 6pm.  1800z minus 5 hours is 1300z or 1:00 pm, no?  That’s the way I thought it worked with Zulu time…you minus 5 hrs from it is what I was told during EST.  So thats incorrect?  If it is what am I missing?  If you don’t minus the 5hrs, then obviously it’s 6:00 pm. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s good to see Coastal rallying.

”Don’t let us win tonight”… you get one and the outlook changes.

I can’t tell you how bad you feel when literally every event has either disappointed or failed for 4 years. Only one that did not was an event about a year ago at this time, but man it just takes you down.

 

Anyways even if this next one doesn’t work out looks like some in the pipeline hopefully.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

1800 is 6pm.  1800z minus 5 hours is 1300z or 1:00 pm, no?  That’s the way I thought it worked with Zulu time…you minus 5 hrs from it is what I was told during EST.  So thats incorrect?  If it is what am I missing?  If you don’t minus the 5hrs, then obviously it’s 6:00 pm. 

Yes 18z is 1p. 

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

1800 is 6pm.  1800z minus 5 hours is 1300z or 1:00 pm, no?  That’s the way I thought it worked with Zulu time…you minus 5 hrs from it is what I was told during EST.  So thats incorrect?  If it is what am I missing?  If you don’t minus the 5hrs, then obviously it’s 6:00 pm. 

Just busting you Wolfie, that's what I thought too.

[NorEastermass128]

4 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

My brother sent out a screen shot of his to my family saying he's getting 19" of snow.  They all got really excited.....I told them to cool their jets for about 5 days.

Did we all get this text today from friends and family? 

[WxWatcher007]

What a difference a day makes...24 little hours...

[WxWatcher007]

@ORH_wxman @dendrite if I wanted to find out how cold this start to winter is compared to other winters on the same date, where would I go?

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Just busting you Wolfie

Lol .  Thought you were saying I had the time incorrect.  So I was like ok, maybe I’m all wrong on how that worked? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s good to see Coastal rallying.

”Don’t let us win tonight”… you get one and the outlook changes.

“We all we got. We all we need.”

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@ORH_wxman @dendrite if I wanted to find out how cold this start to winter is compared to other winters on the same date, where would I go?

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org
 

go to single station “seasonal time series”, choose “average temp” and then choose “other” for the period and it will let you manually enter the start and end dates for whatever period you want to measure. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can’t tell you how bad you feel when literally every event has either disappointed or failed for 4 years. Only one that did not was an event about a year ago at this time, but man it just takes you down.

Anyways even if this next one doesn’t work out looks like some in the pipeline hopefully.

We've all been there and understand.  It's just nice to see the page try to turn.

The difference between looking outside and seeing a white landscape, vs brown and dead in the darkest time of year makes a huge difference aesthetically. 

[ariof]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes 18z is 1p. 

Every so often I have a call with a person who happens to be a met in an NWS office in another time zone. After a couple of tries figure out a time for the call I said "wait, we both speak UTC" and now we solely communicate our times for this in z and it hasn't failed yet.

I tried to do this in other domains and let's just say people get confused.

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

CoastalWx applying "English" to TICK the weekend storm N!?  UKMET does so and GDPS is tryin'.  GFS and ECMWF say no, but a "MIDLO" blockbuster for the Mid-Atlc.

 

This is quite interesting. There is literally nothing at 500, at least I can't find anywhere close to the sfc low.  When it is just off Delmarva, the flow close and over it is actually a bit anticyclonic!  The trough/vort is way W in MKE-DSM area.  I don't think that vort here is driving it.

 

It's a classic Miller A "bottom-up" system.  Strong from sfc-850, but MEH above that.  The Feb 11, 1983 blockbuster was like this.  CoastalWx LUVs this one b/c it was fcst NOT to hit SNE, and a big surprise.  South Weymouth NAS had TS+ and BDL SNOINCR 5.  Also SNOINCR 5 at ABE and LGA had TS+. New all-time 24 hour snowfall records were set at PHL, CXY, and ABE.  Max amount of 35" at Glengary WV.

This event was not a deep sfc low, about 994 mb at its closest approach to SNE, and the weekend storm looks similar.  Also, like Feb 11, 1983, a very cold Arctic air mass was in place over the NEUS, and suppression of the storm track was a big fcst issue!

 

I remember that storm well. A couple local mets were adamant that there was no way it would hit. I remember staying up and sneaking a peak at the 11 pm news. Hilton on channel 3 called the high to the north "the rock of Gibraltar" and would miss. What a great surprise the next day 

[UnitedWx]

45 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Did we all get this text today from friends and family? 

Only the ones who insist on a damn IPhone