January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh ok. Seemed like you and Sllot were keeping down south. I’m not saying 2-3 feet are coming.. but I’d bet it snows this weekend 

Oh, I agree....you will snow. Better shot I don't, but we'll see.....

[alex]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha.

Suppression depression.

 Could be worse. Get a few days of upslope in there and it’d look pretty good. I mean, we weren’t supposed to get much of anything this weekend and we got almost half a foot. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha.

Suppression depression.

Heh ... the suppression hasn't been an end to end issue on the guidance.  It's really only 2.5 ... 3 days of it, roughly 23-26.   just sayn'

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, alex said:

 Could be worse. Get a few days of upslope in there and it’d look pretty good. I mean, we weren’t supposed to get much of anything this weekend and we got almost half a foot. 

 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh ... the suppression hasn't been an end to end issue on the guidance.  It's really only 2.5 ... 3 days of it, roughly 23-26.   just sayn'

Ha, it was more tongue in cheek.  I mean just about any time it snows in Boston to Hartford it’s suppression up here.

Don’t like the look up this way for synoptic snows, but we’ve had plenty.  Time to get some mojo back in the southern lands.

That AIFS run was wild.

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha.

Suppression depression.

And that’s before the next storm in the series

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Ha, it was more tongue in cheek.  I mean just about any time it snows in Boston to Hartford it’s suppression up here.

Don’t like the look up this way for synoptic snows, but we’ve had plenty.  Time to get some mojo back in the southern lands.

That AIFS run was wild.

You don't need synoptic snow there.

[MJO812]

Euro is further north

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, Fozz said:

You think the mid-Atlantic is getting a HECS out of this? I might need to make plans yikes.

I haven't looked at it much yet, but potential seems to be there.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Iphone weather app says 12-15” for next Sunday. Can always adjust up if needed. 

Yeah my husband just send me a screen shot from the Iphone weather app, 15 to 19 inches for next Sunday in Westfield... outcome TBD lol

[UnitedWx]

31 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

What???  No one is calling for that nor is any app

The idiot IPhone app is...

[ORH_wxman]

Tick tick tick on the OP Euro. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You don't need synoptic snow there.

Ha, we can make ends meet without it.

All joking aside, fairly normal progression as the jet lowers in latitude this time of year.  We get in the sweet spot like Nov/Dec and then again March/April.  Jan and Feb should be south of this latitude.

[Snowcrazed71]

48 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

AIFS might be the most ridiculous shit i have ever seen

Wow!!! And how did they do again with this past storm over the weekend? I feel like they did fairly well. No. Of course, I'm not saying that all three of these are I come to fruition, but I think the chances are pretty high that one out of the three will come through

[TheSnowman]

31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha.

Suppression depression.

Snow Totals for FEBRUARY 3rd.

 

Guess when The Snowman gets back from LA?

 

FEBRUARY 3rd!  

[wx_observer]

Skies should be clear enough tonight to see the aurora if it makes it far enough south:

[RDRY]

Holy overrunning, Batman!

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Snow Totals for FEBRUARY 3rd.

 

Guess when The Snowman gets back from LA?

 

FEBRUARY 3rd!  

Was happy to see you score a good win yesterday.  Look forward to hearing you again on 98.5 Sports Hub, ha.

[RDRY]

9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Wow!!! And how did they do again with this past storm over the weekend? I feel like they did fairly well. No. Of course, I'm not saying that all three of these are I come to fruition, but I think the chances are pretty high. That one out of the three will come through

That would cause snow fatigue even with this crew.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tick tick tick on the OP Euro. 

[UnitedWx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tick tick tick on the OP Euro. 

Is the Op playing catch up to the AI? Shit, if this keeps up I'll have to eat my words regarding said system

[ineedsnow]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha.

Suppression depression.

that's 10 to 1  probably be pure fluff and 20 to 1 on average most places 

[dendrite]

Still a lot to iron out. Stick to ens trends.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Still a lot to iron out. Stick to ens trends.

Good advice.

Also, chant "Come to Papa" every 6 hours.

[mahk_webstah]

Interesting little snippet from GYX.  This happened a few years ago and dumped 4 on me and 7 on Dendrite.

Still under the influence of a trough, Arctic air will pour in
behind the front Tuesday making for a mostly dry and cold day.
The morning looks to start mostly clear as high pressure begins
to work its way into the region, but an additional passing
shortwave may add some clouds during the afternoon. It is also
worth noting that strong lake effect dynamics will be ongoing to
our west and the CAMs are beginning to suggest a ribbon may be
able to stretch its way across central New Hampshire and even
into Southern Maine. I have kept it out of the forecast for now
as these can be finicky and it wouldn;t have a large footprint,
but it is something to keep an eye on if your evening commute
takes you north on 93 or 95 through these areas.

[dendrite]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Good advice.

Also, chant "Come to Papa" every 6 hours.

At d6 the EC op has a PV lobe over James Bay and a lot more suppression of the flow over our region. AI has a more consolidated, closed PV near the southern MB/ON border. That allows for more ridging over New England and room for the system to creep up the coast.

I think we’re playing with heartache up here, but there’s a shot.

[Spanks45]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tick tick tick on the OP Euro. 

I hope in a few days, we are worrying about how far north sleet line can get....

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dendrite said:

At d6 the EC op has a PV lobe over James Bay and a lot more suppression of the flow over our region. AI has a more consolidated, closed PV near the southern MB/ON border. That allows for more ridging over New England and room for the system to creep up the coast.

I think we’re playing with heartache up here, but there’s a shot.

I don't expect a major storm up here Sunday-Monday.  But it will be fun to watch it creep north and get the MA and SNE weenies a good time.  We'll likely get ours...

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

At d6 the EC op has a PV lobe over James Bay and a lot more suppression of the flow over our region. AI has a more consolidated, closed PV near the southern MB/ON border. That allows for more ridging over New England and room for the system to creep up the coast.

I think we’re playing with heartache up here, but there’s a shot.

Pic for reference. I’m not going to pretend to know what’s right…but I’d prefer the least confluent option possible.

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These things always get further north than initially modeled. 8 out of 10 times we're more worried about sleet/rain than cold/dry

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

Pic for reference. I’m not going to pretend to know what’s right…but I’d prefer least confluent option possible.

Need that vort energy in Wisconsin/Iowa to phase a little more with the southwest stuff before it moves east. Started doing that this run but not enough except for very light stuff into SNE.