January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

The LR pattern depictions should viewed like an art dealer examining a work they think is fake. 

It’s meh. Easily be a cold and dry kiss em goodbye 

[CoastalWx]

Pattern blows long range 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah not seeing a reason for negative attitude on that beyond the 25th no way…

First of all the ridge axis associated with that positive PNA is perfectly climatologically aligned in terms of longitude. Anything that gets ejected each of that feature will end up west of that trough as depicted in the EPS mean that Brooklyn’ provided. 

But it’s not just that spatial reasoning and a-priori aspect, the index is numerological ie pure mathematics. It’s like we’re mathematically sounding an alarm and we have at least a reasonable footprint in the spatial structure out there?

But you know yeah ..,we have the last 10 years of Stockholm syndrome and so non-believability is too easy because of that. I can understand that

If we change the indexes and that scaffolding starts to mutate, etc., no problem

You know, frankly, I made the glib prediction back in early September that we would have an early loaded winter followed by a sputtering January and then a flowery February. Granted there’s a lot heuristics with that … Still I think it might be difficult to hold onto this favorable look that deep into February. Much beyond the first week you guys are on your own.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah not seeing a reason for negative attitude on that beyond the 25th no way…

First of all the ridge axis associated with that positive PNA is perfectly climatologically aligned in terms of longitude. Anything that gets ejected each of that feature will end up west of that trough as depicted in the EPS mean that Brooklyn’ provided. 

But it’s not just that spatial reasoning and a-priori aspect, the index is numerological ie pure mathematics. It’s like we’re mathematically sounding an alarm and we have at least a reasonable footprint in the spatial structure out there?

But you know yeah ..,we have the last 10 years of Stockholm syndrome and so non-believability is too easy because of that. I can understand that

If we change the indexes and that scaffolding starts to mutate, etc., no problem

You know, frankly, I made the glib prediction back in early September that we would have an early loaded winter followed by a sputtering January and then a flowery February. Granted there’s a lot heuristics with that … Still I think it might be difficult to hold onto this favorable look that deep into February. Much beyond the first week you guys are on your own.

When he gets like this it’s best to not engage we have learned 

[CoastalWx]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When he gets like this it’s best to not engage we have learned 

There’s a risk of cold and dry kiss and goodbye though. That’s what I mean. I’m not saying it’s terrible, but I have my concerns.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern blows long range 

Can’t blame the guy he’s been porked every way possible including today . Hopefully the goods get delivered to you , there will be plenty of chances. 

[George001]

21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Can’t blame the guy he’s been porked every way possible including today . Hopefully the goods get delivered to you , there will be plenty of chances. 

Isn’t he expected to get a plowable snow tomorrow 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Isn’t he expected to get a plowable snow tomorrow 

Yes, but many are in the believe it when they see it mode.. Guidance has been horrendous inside 48 hours lately 

[Snowcrazed71]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s a risk of cold and dry kiss and goodbye though. That’s what I mean. I’m not saying it’s terrible, but I have my concerns.

I wouldn't get so concerned. I feel like over the last couple of days the model showed lots of cold and lots of snow chances, then some models showed cold and dry. Today was a good example of things can change in an instant. None of us expected the snowfall we got in Connecticut today or even where you were. It was supposed to be an inch or to it most, and I honestly didn't even think we'd see an inch. I wound up getting 4". And now tomorrow is looking like a decent 3-5/4-6 event. Again, this was supposed to be an out to sea storm. 

And you more than anyone here should know that things will change as we head through the week. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s meh. Easily be a cold and dry kiss em goodbye 

Right. Fake.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s a risk of cold and dry kiss and goodbye though. That’s what I mean. I’m not saying it’s terrible, but I have my concerns.

You’re not wrong about that…

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern blows long range 

@brooklynwx99

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

@brooklynwx99

The risk is suppression with the PV but hopefully its not congrats southern Mid Atlantic.

[WxWatcher007]

33 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I wouldn't get so concerned. I feel like over the last couple of days the model showed lots of cold and lots of snow chances, then some models showed cold and dry. Today was a good example of things can change in an instant. None of us expected the snowfall we got in Connecticut today or even where you were. It was supposed to be an inch or to it most, and I honestly didn't even think we'd see an inch. I wound up getting 4". And now tomorrow is looking like a decent 3-5/4-6 event. Again, this was supposed to be an out to sea storm. 

And you more than anyone here should know that things will change as we head through the week. 

That’s us though. For every victory we’ve had here it’s been a defeat there. That’s tough in any year, but compounded with nearly a decade of it I get the pessimism. 

I really like the look going forward but people out there need to see to believe. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s us though. For every victory we’ve had here it’s been a defeat there. That’s tough in any year, but compounded with nearly a decade of it I get the pessimism. 

I really like the look going forward but people out there need to see to believe. 

I get it. Although we've had a pretty good December here in Connecticut this year, we've been jilted the last several years here too. I just don't like being pessimistic. It's just my nature. But I totally understand where some are coming from when they're pessimistic. All we can do is hope and pray

[WxWatcher007]

24 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I get it. Although we've had a pretty good December here in Connecticut this year, we've been jilted the last several years here too. I just don't like being pessimistic. It's just my nature. But I totally understand where some are coming from when they're pessimistic. All we can do is hope and pray

I’m with you. I prefer optimism by default too. Just hard when you have been wandering through the wilderness like they have. 

Of course, if they need to rain for me to get 12” of powder, to hell with ‘em.  

[alex]

Trees looking good again 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Can’t blame the guy he’s been porked every way possible including today . Hopefully the goods get delivered to you , there will be plenty of chances. 

This isn’t because of that. I really feel like this isn’t the best pattern for us.

[moneypitmike]

Congrats Ray.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Scooter no longer holds a degree so weigh his thoughts very lightly. Pattern ahead looks pretty good to me.

[Torch Tiger]

Anyone else creating local models. ;(

[Torch Tiger]

Nowcast 

[Torch Tiger]

3 5080 rtx

[OrangeCTWX]

GFS with a casual 1058mb high near Edmonton next weekend lol

[WxWatcher007]

The Euro is absolutely frigid. Good God lol. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Scooter no longer holds a degree so weigh his thoughts very lightly. Pattern ahead looks pretty good to me.

Ya, I think so too. I’m no MET, but I’d take my chances with what is being shown. Nothing is perfect. And when we’ve had near perfect looks, we have gotten skunked. So I’ll take a less than perfect look(but still looks pretty good as you pointed out), and roll the dice with the cold we have coming.    
 

Honestly, his posts lately have been bizarre.

[WinterWolf]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s a risk of cold and dry kiss and goodbye though. That’s what I mean. I’m not saying it’s terrible, but I have my concerns.

You’re not saying it’s terrible…?  You just said it blows a few posts back lmao.  You’re all over the map for god sakes…seriously, take a break. Please. 

[WxWatcher007]

00z isn't out yet, but the 12z EPS had six consecutive days with a high below 20 at BDL between 1/25 and 1/30. Probably won't happen, but if it did, we'd be in rarified air. 

The last comparable cold snap with such highs was 12/28/17 - 1/1/18 at five days. The record is 9 days in 1961, followed by 6 days in 1979 and 5 in the period I mentioned. We've had four consecutive days six times, with most recent prior to 2017 blowing through it being 1989. 

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re not saying it’s terrible…?  You just said it blows a few posts back lmao.  You’re all over the map for god sakes…seriously, take a break. Please. 

Cold and dry kiss em goodbye enjoy.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I think so too. I’m no MET, but I’d take my chances with what is being shown. Nothing is perfect. And when we’ve had near perfect looks, we have gotten skunked. So I’ll take a less than perfect look(but still looks pretty good as you pointed out), and roll the dice with the cold we have coming.    
 

Honestly, his posts lately have been bizarre.

I look at models. The EPS is below normal for precip.