January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

just based on that, the concept may be more related to placement or displacement of the jet versus the actually speed...though speed probably more of a factor in relation to jet streaks versus the jet as a whole.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think part of it is the behavior of the MJO deconstructiveluy interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...but agree on overattribution.

The MJO theory is definitely more sound in my eyes than “we can’t phase in the fast flow” theory. I still think that one is likely temporary though much like other flavor of the month theories in the past 2 decades. 
 

This winter seems to be bucking the chronic MJO problem of 2022-2025 but yet we still can’t buy a good system. 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Heh. That reminds me of 1/14-15 2004 where we had a synoptic snowfall a few degrees below 0F. Yakutsk dropped in behind it. 

I think 2/14/07 takes the cake for me.

We had 6” in BTV before temps hit 0F.

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Heh. That reminds me of 1/14-15 2004 where we had a synoptic snowfall a few degrees below 0F. Yakutsk dropped in behind it. 

Feb 13th 2016 diamond dust then synoptic 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The MJO theory is definitely more sound in my eyes than “we can’t phase in the fast flow” theory. I still think that one is likely temporary though much like other flavor of the month theories in the past 2 decades. 
 

This winter seems to be bucking the chronic MJO problem of 2022-2025 but yet we still can’t buy a good system. 

Not as much as you think....models have still been far too zealous with phase 8 residence time and amplification....I worked this into my outlook and called BS in December, which was correct. A lot of it is due to the west warm pool biasing convection out there, and I do think it will shift eventually.

Thus SSTS and conditions near the ground can reenforce a given atmospheric regime in the absence of a major catalyst for change. When considering the graphic below, it is apparent that the largest increase in oceanic heat content has occurred in the western Pacific, with a secondary area off of the northeast US coast to the south of Newfoundland.

 

 

These areas are not coincidental and are likely a byproduct of both the prevailing trades as regulated by the Walker Cycle (West Pacific), and perhaps the melting of sea ice slowing the warming in the higher latitudes (near New Foundland).

 

These maxima of heat content are in areas that correlate with both +WPO and +NAO.

 

 

Accordingly, there has indeed been an increased tendency towards the DJFM winter period being biased towards +WPO/+NAO in the mean that has been remarkably evident since the major El Niño event of 2015-2016 accelerated the warming. In fact, since 2016, only two seasons have averaged a -WPO (2016-2017, 2021-2022) and just one season has averaged a -NAO (2020-2021). This would seem to imply that this is at least partially attributable to some sort of feedback accentuated by the stored ocean heat content that is a byproduct of climate change. Note the similarity to the West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) correlation map in terms of both temps, as well as the 500mb pattern over the US during DM period over the course of the past decade, which validates the premise that the west Pacific has been the prevailing catalyst in the pattern.

 

 

While the vast majority of the country has been running above the 1951-2010 climatology base owed to the general background warming, it is clear how the magnitude of said warmth is weighted disproportionately in that it is much more intense across the eastern portion of the country. The eastern half of the country has been running several degrees warmer than average, while areas of the Pacific north west coast hardly at all. This is due at least in part to the aforementioned heat maximum over the west Pacific, which has come to be known as the West Pacific Warm Pool. This immense warmer body of water, which is likely attributable to some combination of climate change and natural variation, has caused the convective pattern known as the Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO) to spend an inordinately excessive amount of time in the maritime continent (MC) phases of 4-7 as a result of the aforementioned tropical convective processes that act to budget and redistribute the immense amount of stored heat around the globe. 

 

These are phases that correlate with greater heights and warmer weather over the eastern half of the country during the winter season, which is precisely what has occurred in the mean over this span of time.

 

 

[weatherwiz]

could see a couple bands of snow squalls moving across the region tomorrow

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think 2/14/07 takes the cake for me.

We had 6” in BTV before temps hit 0F.

That was more of a shallow cold. 850s were relatively warm. 04 had -25C 850s in S NH with snowfall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

just based on that, the concept may be more related to placement or displacement of the jet versus the actually speed...though speed probably more of a factor in relation to jet streaks versus the jet as a whole.

Well, the gradient between the stagnant cold over Siberia and warmth east of Japan not only accentuates the jet, but emphasizes the n PAC placement ...it goes hand-in-hand. That is starting to change...

The Limitation of Traditional Conceptualizations In A Warming Climate

 

The Relative Ocean Nino Index (RONI) attempts to remove the trend due to global warming in an effort to produce a measure that is of more direct relevance to changes in tropical convection driven by SST anomalies, rather than the general warming around the globe. This is similar to the issues addressed with respect to the original PDO patterns in that the general background warming alters these traditional relationships. Just as the west Pacific warm pool enhances the general cold phase of the Pacific despite the general warming along the coast of the western CONUS, it also strengthens the proclivity for the MJO to frequent the MC in a similar fashion to canonical La Nina despite any competing forces. In this case, the competing force is perhaps some heightened convection and vertical ascent in the vicinity of the dateline relative to what would normally be expected for a cool ENSO event. Thus it is probably unreasonable to expect as consistently of a cold pattern as seen in an older analog, such as 1995-1996, due to the increased baseline tendency for MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions. Note the absence of subsidence in the vicinity of the dateline in the traditional weak and east-based La Niña composites.

 

 

However, the most recent weak and east-based events are not devoid of this Modoki like subsidence in this area, rather it is just more subdued. 

 

This is indicative of considerable periods of MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions, albeit less propounded than in a canonical La Niña that is more west-based. This is also illustrated by the aforementioned increase in the Pacific jet over time.

 

How this manifests in terms of the RONI is that these modern La Niña events often have stronger RONI values due to the west Pacific warm pool accentuating the cool ENSO influence.

 

 

This is what feedbacks into the pattern that reenforces the cold over Siberia and warmth east of Japan that embodies the +WPO regime, and strengthens the jet.

 

 

Below is the progression over the past quarter of a century in the north Pacific relative to the intensity of the Aleutian low, as the attendant Hadley Cell has continued to expand northward.

 

 

 

 

Note that this western Pacific warmth was less pronounced in the older La Nina analog composite, which is why the jet was weaker in the mean.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

could see a couple bands of snow squalls moving across the region tomorrow

We are ready. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

could see a couple bands of snow squalls moving across the region tomorrow

Nah 50-55 

[radarman]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’re trying to get @radarmanpond hockey tournaments into May

I've refrained from chiming in lately but the fact is you have to play the hand you're dealt.  If we had super snowy and warm we'd be skiing.  If we had early Jan 2007 we'd be out taking walks.  Of those who complain most bitterly I'm not sure they've ever posted evidence of going outside in the winter in any conditions.  The south beckons.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Feb 13th 2016 diamond dust then synoptic 

I don’t think anyone had DD from that airmass in SNE. Wasn’t it really windy? I remember ORH doing -10° or something in that. DD is basically the frozen form of fog…a cirrus cloud at the sfc. 

[jbenedet]

40/34

We torch since the 6th

scattered snow cover gone today. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The persistent +WPO portion has obviously started to shift already, and the behavior of the MJO will eventually follow suite.....but that is lagging, which is at least part of the reason why we still have a dearth of large east coast storms despite a N Pac more conducive to cold...also some plane bad luck, I'm sure.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

I've refrained from chiming in lately but the fact is you have to play the hand you're dealt.  If we had super snowy and warm we'd be skiing.  If we had early Jan 2007 we'd be out taking walks.  Of those who complain most bitterly I'm not sure they've ever posted evidence of going outside in the winter in any conditions.  The south beckons.

I like big cold…I just worry about my birds and plants. There’s just something about going out in a calm -20° or colder airmass and breathing it in. 0°F is cold, but when you push -30 it’s on another level. 

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

40/34

We torch since the 6th

scattered snow cover gone today. 

47° here. I remember last week people were saying one day mild up.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah 50-55 

BOS perhaps gets near 50F with 40's elsewhere...but temperatures start dropping west-to-east through the afternoon...probably see squalls along the leading edge of the colder air 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

47° here. I remember last week people were saying one day mild up.

WTTTE

[dendrite]

On 1/7/2026 at 6:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

You did and many others . There were even 5-6 straight days of 40’s forecast lol

6 out of the last 7 at 990ft now

[jbenedet]

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

47° here. I remember last week people were saying one day mild up.

Yea this was a complete flip. We had cold that overperformed to that date—temps consistently below forecast. It’s been the opposite since…

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Other hobbies?

Yes, Instead of sitting behind the keyboard pissing and whining all day about the lack of snow.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah 50-55 

Today 50-55 , tomorrow a few squalls

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6 out of the last 7 at 990ft now

We knew. He’s ticking 50 today and tomorrow and did earlier last week. 

[CoastalWx]

Any squalls look to be tomorrow evening 

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t think anyone had DD from that airmass in SNE. Wasn’t it really windy? I remember ORH doing -10° or something in that. DD is basically the frozen form of fog…a cirrus cloud at the sfc. 

I saw diamond dust for the first time a few weeks ago and it was so cool.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6 out of the last 7 at 990ft now

Straight?

[weatherwiz]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like big cold…I just worry about my birds and plants. There’s just something about going out in a calm -20° or colder airmass and breathing it in. 0°F is cold, but when you push -30 it’s on another level. 

When I first became introduced to forecast models and I'd see those "white blob" like -30F 850 temps I think it was from Plymouth models...I used to open my freezer and suck in the air as hard as I could to prepare for breathing in that cold

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We knew. He’s ticking 50 today and tomorrow and did earlier last week. 

I did? 47.6 is highest this month on Jan 9th. Today may beat that but let’s not make shit up . And tomorrow drops all afternoon after morning 40

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I saw diamond dust for the first time a few weeks ago and it was so cool.

A lot of people confuse true DD with very light snow. It can get tricky in the mountains too because at cold temps even with weak lift you can squeeze out some snowflakes even with barely the hint of a cloud. But DD is simply ice fog. I think the Inuit term for it was pogonip.

But as you know it’s difficult to freeze tiny water droplets because of their curvature. You need really cold temps to get them to spontaneously freeze. That’s why it’s usually around -30 or colder and in valleys so it can saturate and go immediately to ice form instead of supercooled droplets. 

 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Straight?

Are you trying to tell us something? We all support you and you’re safe here.