January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I totally agree. I always enjoy your take on things, merely because you're always looking at the possibilities of what could happen. Do they happen most of the time? No, but you give the possibilities instead of being negative. I'd rather that than some of these woe is me posts. And usually the ones that complain about what's not happening are the ones that also jump on other people or trying to keep things light and positive. Pay no attention to them as there's a lot of people who appreciate what you do Brooklyn!!

People like his posts because he is a cheerleader for snow. And that's what people want to hear to make them feel better. But we should be better than that. 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I've followed him for multiple years and he has a poor track record with medium and long range forecasting. I respect his enthusiasm a lot, but he is not yet a good forecaster. Brooklyn does not know what he does not know. He is young and inexperienced and has an unrelenting positive bias. It's relatively straight-forward to describe long-range ensemble anomaly charts in numerical terms and translate that to known pattern configurations. But that doesn't make you a good forecaster at all. Of the hundreds of times he has created an animation to illustrate a positive trend, exceedingly few have preceded a snowy outcome.

If you knew me personally or bothered to read my posts, you would know that I am not a troll. I believe in facts and science, not BS and voodoo. 

lol the people at my job that I actually forecast for would beg to disagree. you're just an ass

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Edicks attacked Brooklyn99

Legitimate critique. Which you've never offered ever. We can have a competition if you want. Let's compare degrees, or professions, or have a forecasting competition. 

[brooklynwx99]

i literally won most forecasting competitions in my classes at school and had a negative Z-score in WxChallenge. just stop it

[eduggs]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

lol the people at my job that I actually forecast for would beg to disagree. you're just an ass

I disagree. Prove me wrong. I've been posting on this board for a very long time. I've never read a solid forecast from you. Maybe you only provide them privately. You post the same thing on several sub forums. It's pretty much always the same thing.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I've followed him for multiple years and he has a poor track record with medium and long range forecasting. I respect his enthusiasm a lot, but he is not yet a good forecaster. Brooklyn does not know what he does not know. He is young and inexperienced and has an unrelenting positive bias. It's relatively straight-forward to describe long-range ensemble anomaly charts in numerical terms and translate that to known pattern configurations. But that doesn't make you a good forecaster at all. Of the hundreds of times he has created an animation to illustrate a positive trend, exceedingly few have preceded a snowy outcome.

If you knew me personally or bothered to read my posts, you would know that I am not a troll. I believe in facts and science, not BS and voodoo. 

Posting something showing a trend or what not is not a forecast. You have no idea what he forecastsor what his record is. So it’s kind of shitty for you to attack his expertise. It’s a Weather forum. This forum really shouldn’t be used as a grade of people’s forecasting skills, unless they put their balls out there.

If you want to grade people on how they talk about the pattern, feel free to go ahead and personally I think he knows his stuff because when I see his posts describing the pattern, I don’t necessarily disagree with his reasoning. So don’t be a dick and attack someone who is a degreed met. This field already has enough dicks in it.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Legitimate critique. Which you've never offered ever. We can have a competition if you want. Let's compare degrees, or professions, or have a forecasting competition. 

That depends. Did you vote for DJT?

[eduggs]

I don't want to "attack" anybody. I'm going to stop responding to specific posts that are personal in nature. I've made my point. Wishing deep snow for everybody.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i literally won most forecasting competitions in my classes at school and had a negative Z-score in WxChallenge. just stop it

You don’t have to engage. We all seen your posts and your reasoning and the quality of your posts. It should just roll off your back.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You don’t have to engage. We all seen your posts and your reasoning and the quality of your posts. It should just roll off your back.

you're right. just kinda hard to take sometimes when someone's insulting your intelligence in that way. i worked my ass off for this lmao

[MJO812]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

you're right. just kinda hard to take sometimes when someone's insulting your intelligence in that way. i worked my ass off for this lmao

JB, Steve D , DT and Henry Marquisity also. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I understand this all the time….but at some point there’s a point where there’s enough venting too. And you just suck it up.   Or log off. 
 

And it’s not all positive all the time. I got no issues saying it sucks when it does. 

True, no disagreement there homie. 
 

[Snowcrazed71]

22 minutes ago, eduggs said:

People like his posts because he is a cheerleader for snow. And that's what people want to hear to make them feel better. But we should be better than that. 

We're grown adults here. Not children. And it's called couth, something that you should try working on. There is a way of saying things to someone without saying it in such a rude manner. Anyway, being real and direct doesn't make you respectable.... ( and for the record, most of us are well aware that most of his posts are ultra positive and that most of them don't actually come to fruition, but ... he's never said in any of his posts that that they were going to happen ). He would just post what could happen with the best case scenario. There's a big difference there. 

 

[Kitz Craver]

59 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just ignore him. He’s a troll.  You are a great met and valued here. Obviously we want to talk about potentially fun times, and not 40s and rain in the winter. Keep on posting positive vibes, the more the merrier.  

Yeah man, 100%. Don’t be dissing Brooklyn. I personally love his contributions to the forum. I didn’t see the comment, but F whatever it said.

[KoalaBeer]

And this is why we can’t have nice things…

When the actual Mets with a degree stop posting as much and we wonder why, the past few pages are the answer.

I may not post much but the reason I lurk often is because of the insights you get here from actual meteorologists that they otherwise aren’t going to share on official NWS products etc. If you want a cookie cutter risk adverse discussion go read your local AFD twice a day dink.

So a special thank you to posters such as Brooklyn, Coastal, Chris, Wiz, Seymour and Tip (even though I don’t know what you are saying 50% of the time, something about the flow being raging fast!) Your insights are much appreciated from me. 

[WxWatcher007]

Did anybody see the 12z…oh…

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, it is unfair to grade someone's forecasting ability if they aren't actually issuing forecasts on here. Talking about the pattern isn't issuing a forecast. You can disagree with their pattern analysis, but it's not fair to call it a forecast if they were just analyzing an ensemble run or a model run.

Some mets and plenty of amateurs do issue forecasts from time to time, and those are fair game to critique as well. But I think people should be clear about what they are critiquing. Model analysis is not the same as an actual forecast. 

And I also don't think it is an indictment on anyone's skill if they post more or less depending on what type of sensible wx the models are showing. I'm sure most mets on here have a lower post rate when we have a vortex over AK and a zonal mild flow in mid-winter. I know I do. I could keep posting about whether the zonal flow might change enough to give us high temps of 54F instead of 47F, but that is about as interesting to me as watching paint dry, so I normally refrain. There are others on here to pick up the slack on that type of discussion if I don't want to do it. 

 

Additionally, I think "pattern talk" is much more likely to occur during periods where there are no imminent threats. We're searching for the next "interesting period". We all know that in rapid-fire stretches of winter storms, we are not constantly posting much about longwave patterns or what some vague D11-15 signal might produce....we're dissecting smaller scale features over a short term storm threat, and maybe tracking another one in the medium range. All of the oxygen gets sucked up during those times with the threats themselves and not pattern talk. 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Did anybody see the 12z…oh…

It seemed to have gone by the wayside with the drama that seems to happen on this form often. Lol. 

But I did hear through a birdie that they're looking pretty good. And I don't think it's just one particular model either

[Torch Tiger]

30 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

We're grown adults here. Not children. And it's called couth, something that you should try working on. There is a way of saying things to someone without saying it in such a rude manner. Anyway, being real and direct doesn't make you respectable.... ( and for the record, most of us are well aware that most of his posts are ultra positive and that most of them don't actually come to fruition, but ... he's never said in any of his posts that that they were going to happen ). He would just post what could happen with the best case scenario. There's a big difference there. 

 

attacking in DM's is not adult-like

[donsutherland1]

I'm sorry to read about the counterproductive nature of a deleted post here.

I believe it's fantastic that meteorologists such as @brooklynwx99 share their thoughts, insights, and expertise here. Their time is valuable. Their freely sharing thoughts and exchanging ideas in the forums and subforums is highly generous. They are under no obligation to do so. Their contributions make AmericanWx more than a mere discussion board.

If one disagrees with a participant's ideas, there are respectful ways to express dissent, if one feels the need to do so. Civility is not difficult. Moreover, one is always free to offer his or her own ideas.

In most professional settings, the existence of differing views is a powerful organizational asset. Moreover, because organizational culture is intangible in nature, it can be a tremendous and sustainable source of competitive advantage. After all, when employees and teams feel comfortable in sharing their ideas, are sufficiently mature to respect differences in thinking, and focused on the larger organizational goals, which drive them to develop common solutions by leveraging the full range of thinking, they tend to be better problem-solvers, more creative, more productive, and more satisfied. The company also tends to do better on financial and non-financial metrics than would otherwise be the case.  

Everyone has blind spots. A larger range of ideas can fill those spots and also help one improve one's own thinking. Certainly, many of the posts, meteorologists and other members here have allowed me to do so. I can never thank them enough. 

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, it is unfair to grade someone's forecasting ability if they aren't actually issuing forecasts on here. Talking about the pattern isn't issuing a forecast. You can disagree with their pattern analysis, but it's not fair to call it a forecast if they were just analyzing an ensemble run or a model run.

Some mets and plenty of amateurs do issue forecasts from time to time, and those are fair game to critique as well. But I think people should be clear about what they are critiquing. Model analysis is not the same as an actual forecast. 

And I also don't think it is an indictment on anyone's skill if they post more or less depending on what type of sensible wx the models are showing. I'm sure most mets on here have a lower post rate when we have a vortex over AK and a zonal mild flow in mid-winter. I know I do. I could keep posting about whether the zonal flow might change enough to give us high temps of 54F instead of 47F, but that is about as interesting to me as watching paint dry, so I normally refrain. There are others on here to pick up the slack on that type of discussion if I don't want to do it. 

 

Additionally, I think "pattern talk" is much more likely to occur during periods where there are no imminent threats. We're searching for the next "interesting period". We all know that in rapid-fire stretches of winter storms, we are not constantly posting much about longwave patterns or what some vague D11-15 signal might produce....we're dissecting smaller scale features over a short term storm threat, and maybe tracking another one in the medium range. All of the oxygen gets sucked up during those times with the threats themselves and not pattern talk. 

you can't even really forecast events that far in the future... you just kinda have to look at trends and the general longwave pattern and see how that goes. i don't think any respectable met would make a deterministic forecast more than 72 hours out

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i literally won most forecasting competitions in my classes at school and had a negative Z-score in WxChallenge. just stop it

Block feature works good.  I’ve restored civility to MY forum experience.  
You are a huge asset to the forum.

Some others here are just huge asses.  Ignore em.

[Kitz Craver]

Anyway… my pack is about completely erased besides crusty driveway banks. How’s everyone’s doing?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Anyway… my pack is about completely erased besides crusty driveway banks. How’s everyone’s doing?

Just piles. 
 

We’ll all be starting from a clean slate in SNE. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess I missed something lol.

Ditto

[dryslot]

Looks like the 18z GFS came in colder for tomorrow night up this way right to the coast.

[MJO812]

 Congrats on the 18z gfs

[ineedsnow]

Lol that's a weird way to do it

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is explosive but I think it'll be tough to pull off... I think the 18th holds better potential with the 16th trying to act as some confluence

[ineedsnow]

Crushed here SW CT nothing