January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still say that the +PNA will win the month. I would be careful about buying the deep -PNA as much as I was the -NAO...I bet we see that go "poof" in like fashion.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think we gotta give it more time…conflicting signals—-equal uncertainty at the moment. 

Yea. We just don’t know. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It is quite amazing how the last 5-6 cycles the wild shift the GEFS/GEPS have made while the EPS seemingly has not moved for 5 days.  The GEPS now moved to the GEFS idea from 1-2 days ago while the GEFS in the 8-12 day range sort of moved to what the ECAIFS/EPS was showing in that period but then immediately goes back to trying to do post D12 what it was doing yesterday beyond D8 lol

mm  I see some critical changes in the EPS though.  

namely, 3 days ago ... it, and all of them, were going from the breakdown into a -EPO.  

2 days ago, that switched to a +PNA with less coherency inov that Alaskan sector

yesterday, we were hybridizing between -EPO and +PNA ..which is like walking on a ruler - not sustainable.  meanwhile the operational GFS was thinking it's May 15th

now, the EPS is sending a coherent +PNA for 2 to 3 day, that then retrogrades into a -EPO,  which is actually kind backward of the canonical evolution.  usually, the -epo fades S and the +PNA takes over....  that's like 1 complete cycle.   If the winter enthusiast is lucky, that becomes cyclic, meaning more than once.   that was 2015...  but I'm digressing.   Point is, these may seem merely nuanced but they are aberrant enough to gum up the works. 

all the while, we are waiting for the N. Pacific ridge to collapse.

[ORH_wxman]

The EPS would def be more favorable to us in the long range than the GEFS/GEPS. All 3 would offer plenty of chances with that look but the is more of a SE ridge flex on the GEFS/GEPS which we know the risks (and rewards) associated with that. I think the EPS would make it a little easier to sneak a coastal in there. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. We just don’t know. 

Well at the moment we don’t..so I agree. Just saying. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

shut "em down

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  I see some critical changes in the EPS though.  

namely, 3 days ago ... it, and all of them, were going from the breakdown into a -EPO.  

2 days ago, that switched to a +PNA with less coherency inov that Alaskan sector

yesterday, we were hybridizing between, while the operational GFS thinks it's May 15th

now, the EPS is sending a coherent +PNA for 2 to 3 day, that then retrogrades into a -EPO,  which is actually kind backward of the canonical evolution.  usually, the -epo fades S and the +PNA takes over....  that's like 1 complete cycle.   If the winter enthusiast is lucky, that becomes cyclic, meaning more than once.   that was 2015...  but I'm digressing.   Point is, these may seem nuanced by the are aberrant enough to gum up the works. 

all the while, we are waiting for the N. Pacific ridge to collapse.

I think there is a recency bias for folks to see a deep, cavernous trough on the west coast, and then just kind of throw their hands up and succumb to the prevailing theme of the decade....but don't forget, that was in fact abandoned last season, regardless of the lack of snow around these parts.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well at the moment we don’t..so I agree. Just saying. 

When do you think we will know?

[Pennfisherman]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still say that the +PNA will win the month. I would be careful about buying the deep -PNA as much as I was the -NAO...I bet we see that go "poof" in like fashion.

This might not be the right place for this question... and I know there are a million cavoites but in general for snow and cold do you want a + or - PNA.

 

The things are read online are +PNA means colder but slightly drier for the northeast while a -PNA means temps more normal but wetter. 

 

Thanks 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When do you think we will know?

Luke, c’mon man, I know you think it’s funny, and it is at times.  But when do you stop the constant ribbing?  
 

If you’re remotely being serious…I’d give it at least 3-4 days before we really know for sure which way it’s leaning. But whatever. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

This might not be the right place for this question... and I know there are a million cavoites but in general for snow and cold do you want a + or - PNA.

 

The things are read online are +PNA means colder but slightly drier for the northeast while a -PNA means temps more normal but wetter. 

 

Thanks 

It depends...the issue isn't as binary as the question implies. It depends on the pattern and location....generally speaking, +PNA is beneficial anywhere on the east for cold, phase potential....but in the northeast, sometimes a more neutral or even negative PNA is preferred if there is a major NAO block....below about 40N, you always want a +PNA.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

This might not be the right place for this question... and I know there are a million cavoites but in general for snow and cold do you want a + or - PNA.

 

The things are read online are +PNA means colder but slightly drier for the northeast while a -PNA means temps more normal but wetter. 

 

Thanks 

Both can work in New England.  Some huge storms here with both. -PNA you don’t want it dipping down in Mexico though …you don’t want it to severe. 

[MJO812]

Warmup doesnt seem long anymore. Models seem to focus on the flip around the 12th.

[weatherwiz]

Sometimes there is way too much focus on what phase a particular teleconnection is in or what the upcoming phase will be, however, there really is no right answer. It depends on what outcome or result you're looking for. Generally speaking, the most active weather is going to occur during the transition period, this is when you're most likely to see potential for stronger weather systems. This is why if you're rooting for a big dog, like a top percentile type of snowstorm along 95, you want to see the NAO becoming less negative with respect to time as a storm is riding up the coast. In the sense of the PNA you would probably want to see the PNA becoming positive (ridge building into the west) but ultimately, you would want the PNA to be progressive or transient because you want that trough to continue ejecting east which would then come with ridging building into the West (developing RNA). 

If you're looking for active weather you would want the pattern to setup and kind of remain a fixture for a period of time...this is something that can work extremely well for us and is how we get the periods like we did in like 1996, 2011, 2013. But because pieces are constantly moving globally it is extremely difficult to get such regimes to develop and maintain during the cold season. What you would hope is to get a great pattern to develop but be able to revert right back to that type of pattern after periods of relaxation. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

That midweek storm still looks wintry. Snow to ice/ mix SNE

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sometimes there is way too much focus on what phase a particular teleconnection is in or what the upcoming phase will be, however, there really is no right answer. It depends on what outcome or result you're looking for. Generally speaking, the most active weather is going to occur during the transition period, this is when you're most likely to see potential for stronger weather systems. This is why if you're rooting for a big dog, like a top percentile type of snowstorm along 95, you want to see the NAO becoming less negative with respect to time as a storm is riding up the coast. In the sense of the PNA you would probably want to see the PNA becoming positive (ridge building into the west) but ultimately, you would want the PNA to be progressive or transient because you want that trough to continue ejecting east which would then come with ridging building into the West (developing RNA). 

If you're looking for active weather you would want the pattern to setup and kind of remain a fixture for a period of time...this is something that can work extremely well for us and is how we get the periods like we did in like 1996, 2011, 2013. But because pieces are constantly moving globally it is extremely difficult to get such regimes to develop and maintain during the cold season. What you would hope is to get a great pattern to develop but be able to revert right back to that type of pattern after periods of relaxation. 

 

Absolutely.  
 

And, It’s a marriage of sorts is what a veteran MET once told me.  I think that analogy is a perfect example. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Warmup doesnt seem long anymore. Models seem to focus on the flip around the 12th.

It never looked long even if it milds up for a day or two. Very muted and meh 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Luke, c’mon man, I know you think it’s funny, and it is at times.  But when do you stop the constant ribbing?  
 

If you’re remotely being serious…I’d give it at least 3-4 days before we really know for sure which way it’s leaning. But whatever. 

Honest question. But Why 3-4 days? What do you see in guidance that suggests that?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It never looked long even if it milds up for a day or two. Very muted and meh 

Heater looks longer than 1-2 days unfortunately. 

[Snowcrazed71]

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When do you think we will know?

When mother nature calls us back. 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Honest question. But Why 3-4 days? What do you see in guidance that suggests that?

if we don't know,  how do we know it's 3-4 days?  we don't

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Heater looks longer than 1-2 days unfortunately. 

A few days in the 40’s ( if it’s even that ) ain’t a heater Ricky 

[mahk_webstah]

37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When do you think we will know?

When we start to hear reports of how the wolf has come back to New England and no one really understands why the wolves are menacing meteorologists

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

if we don't know,  how do we know it's 3-4 days?  we don't

This is a very confusing hobby, that’s all I know.  

[SouthCoastMA]

we don't know what we don't know. or do we? we just don't know

[SouthCoastMA]

Just have to wait this period out. Nothing of interest is going to show for several days or more. I wouldn't mind a few days in the 40s or 50s with something to clean the salty streets

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Honest question. But Why 3-4 days? What do you see in guidance that suggests that?

My thought was we’d be in the midst of the thaw at that point, and perhaps whatever it is that’s coming after might be better modeled.  Maybe it would take even longer than that. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

My thought was we’d be in the midst of the thaw at that point, and perhaps whatever it is that’s coming after might be better modeled.  Maybe it would take even longer than that. 

The one consistent thing this last 6 weeks is models have largely been able to lock into the theme at around 168 hours at least so I'd think by the 6th we really want to see consistent ideas of the trof kicking eastward and the ridge building out west if we are going to see the 12th or 13th being the start of something manageable, if we are not seeing that by then I think we can kick this more out to the 16th or 17th

[George001]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This incoming stretch was completely expected, and I still think it will get active beyond mid-month...but man, if this winter ends up disappointing, I'm probably going to start treating winter the way I do the Red Sox cold-stove season....complete and utter disinterest barring something imminent. It's a shame...I used to be so excited, now I just look at off season articles, roll my eyes and keep scrolling. I really thought we would have done better in December. That said, I can totally see a March 2018 type period coming up in the second half. Try to hang in there because it's not over. This season has that 2018-type of profile.

I’m not going to lie, I’m kind of annoyed that we are in early January and tracking a pattern change, not individual threats. That said, despite getting some bad luck in December, your ideas about how things would evolve in early winter have been dead on so far. I like your evidence based style, you listen to arguments for both cold and warm despite having a cold/snowy bias on a personal level (most of us do). You hold yourself accountable and learn from your mistakes and it shows in your work. I hope you are right about how the rest of winter plays out.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When do you think we will know?

By February 1st or so we should have a good handle on January.