January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Today’s runs suggests that the pope is a seer.  Maybe we can put him up to be canonized as a demon saint

Yeah I looked at the LR when he posted - upper air looked good, then I looked at surface and it was trash warm so, he was on to something.

[dendrite]

Pope just wants warm weather so he can get back on that crotch rocket. It’s tough to pop wheelies in this weather.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dendrite said:

Pope just wants warm weather so he can get back on that crotch rocket. It’s tough to pop wheelies in this weather.

So that’s a “no”

so many ups and downs, and I don’t mean wheelies. Fortunately, up here something will probably work out.

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I know we were told that the NAO was going to be predominately positive due to global warming….we went through a big +NAO period in the 1980s/1990s and lots of papers came out about it being attributed to global warming. 
 

Then we got a huge decadal period of -NAO between about 2000-2001 and 2018 which coincided with the snowiest 15 year stretch on record in many SNE stations. 
 

It’s taught me not to have knee-jerk reactions about 5 or even 10+ trends and trying to extrapolate based on those. They just aren’t very predictable. A lot of climate weenies love to undersell the stochastic aspect of many of these patterns. It doesn’t mean we’re not warming…we can measure that we are and the literature is pretty sound about it on the whole…but it means other pattern attributes and sensible wx isn’t necessarily as easily predictable or understood by climate modeling. 

Am I wrong in my very limited knowledge that this generally aligns with the AMO phases?

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Nothing good on the 12z euro? I assume so since not a single post about it. That's usually the tell

Nothing big. It did show a light snow event on 1/4. 1/6 is still there too actually but again, not a biggie. 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Yeah I looked at the LR when he posted - upper air looked good, then I looked at surface and it was trash warm so, he was on to something.

I know a lot of people here don’t like him, but the Pope knows his shit. Yes, his meteorology background is unconventional, but that doesn’t make the knowledge he has any less real. He may end up being wrong, but as someone who was (and still is) pounding the table for a big January, the concerns he brought up in regards to the thermals are real and valid issues. If the +EPO strengthens/pac trends worse, he absolutely could be right. Disagreeing is fine, but its important to take a scientific approach, not an emotional one. This also means using guidance as tools rather than looking for a quick dopamine hit (I’m guilty of this myself, but am actively working on changing my mindset).

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Nothing good on the 12z euro? I assume so since not a single post about it. That's usually the tell

Frankly not really.  

I think the observations I elucidated/illustrated this morning are going to be more useful in setting expectations than the previous to be honest.  There's a whip transition toward a -EPO occurring - rather unexpectedly, really.  The previous paradigm/idea suggested we were going to move from the last several weeks of N. Pac, toward a +PNA of sorts.   The former is breaking down over the next week.   Ooo rah!  the wicked witch is dead.  Or at least in hiatus.   Anyway, latest appears that we're more likely to relay into a -EPO, instead. 

Firstly, it's not clear or very high confidence how that will influence the pattern down stream over N/A very precisely. But ...whatever that is, it is not likely to be the same as a +PNA.   Not right away anyway.   Given some time, there is a lag correlation where -EPOs tend to neutralize, and the positive mode of the PNA subsequently occurs.  Maybe that times out there mid month?   who knows.  

So the 12z Euro is really coming into line with all this.   We had been tentatively monitoring an event of sorts on the 6th ...followed perhaps by a more important one 8-9-10ish.  At this point in the Euro it's getting difficult to even identify those wave spaces it's changing things so hard.  We actually have a resurgence of SE ridging on us... 

Which ... the initial stages of a -EPO does in fact teleconnect to hgt falls through the Rockies, which then wave spacing arguments then correlates the SE ridge response.  That's really what we're seeing.  And as that occur, that ridge has become or is becoming in negative interference with those systems we had been keeping an eye on.  There getting sort of damped out. That latter one on this run ..can't be trusted - not yet anyway.

-EPO is a cold loading pattern into N/A ... it starts up in the NW territories...than spreads S-E throughout the Can shield.  Then, if/when the +PNA does arrive ... even transient mode states will then promote delivery S of the border.   

If I were asked at this point in time - an act that seldom happens these days... haha ... I would tell you that this is all implies the present cold --> warm --> cold transition spanning the next 3 weeks, with those successive periods being lesser confidence as to their lengths/amplitude.

[weatherwiz]

The overall look isn't terrible, in fact, it's probably better to see than these "great looking patterns" that haven't seemed to materialize the last few winters. There will be multiple storm chances over the next 2-3 weeks, probably on the order of one system every 6-9 days. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1-3” NYE… 1-3” Sunday 

We’ll take it. Better than cold and dry 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3” NYE… 1-3” Sunday 

We’ll take it. Better than cold and dry 

Yea keep the winter vibes going…

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

25 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know a lot of people here don’t like him, but the Pope knows his shit. Yes, his meteorology background is unconventional, but that doesn’t make the knowledge he has any less real. He may end up being wrong, but as someone who was (and still is) pounding the table for a big January, the concerns he brought up in regards to the thermals are real and valid issues. If the +EPO strengthens/pac trends worse, he absolutely could be right. Disagreeing is fine, but its important to take a scientific approach, not an emotional one. This also means using guidance as tools rather than looking for a quick dopamine hit (I’m guilty of this myself, but am actively working on changing my mindset).

It’s also incredibly easy to take the under right now too. Regardless of the look, we’ve minimized every potential 

[Krs4Lfe]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3” NYE… 1-3” Sunday 

We’ll take it. Better than cold and dry 

I think the short range models are putting too much into the clipper on NYE. Seems like nothing but mood flakes until it hits the water and then maybe a few inches for Cape Cod and downeast Maine. Precipitation coming from a northwest origin tends to dry out big time. Sunday (verbatim as it is depicted currently) is just as dried out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I think the short range models are putting too much into the clipper on NYE. Seems like nothing but mood flakes until it hits the water and then maybe a few inches for Cape Cod and downeast Maine. Precipitation coming from a northwest origin tends to dry out big time. Sunday (verbatim as it is depicted currently) is just as dried out. 

GFS and Euro both have it 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s also incredibly easy to take the under right now too. Regardless of the look, we’ve minimized every potential 

Why can’t we bet on weather? Cmon Vegas…

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The overall look isn't terrible, in fact, it's probably better to see than these "great looking patterns" that haven't seemed to materialize the last few winters. There will be multiple storm chances over the next 2-3 weeks, probably on the order of one system every 6-9 days. 

right ... the veneer of this is pretty. 360+ hours ...  obviously low skill so whatever.  But this isn't first time we've seen this, this winter season so far.  These ranges of the ensemble means don't typically have coherent pattern signals.  I mean, I've seen less clear pattern implications on a D7 ranged charts plenty of times over the years... Usually, at this extended range, the flow looks annular about the N. Pole, almost equidistant.  You know ...circular.  It's the mean of the noise, of all ensemble members wondering off on daydreams over time.   This below, this intrinsically means that the vast majority of them have a hard on for a -EPO at a range where they pretty much never have a clue - and really aren't supposed to. Unless there's been some sort to techno breakthrough I'm less privy to, I've never seen this before like I am seeing specifically this winter thus far at 360+ hrs.    

Can ens

EPS

GEFS

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Why can’t we bet on weather? Cmon Vegas…

Hey. Positive vibes only I guess.

It snows in people’s hopes and dreams, rarely in reality and on the models, where it actually matters,over the last half decade or so 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right ... the veneer of this is pretty. 360+ hours ...  obviously low skill so whatever.  But this isn't first time we've seen this, this winter season so far.  These ranges of the ensemble means don't typically have coherent pattern signals.  I mean, I've seen less clear pattern implications on a D7 ranged charts plenty of times over the years... Usually, at this extended range, the flow looks annular about the N. Pole, almost equidistant.  You know ...circular.  It's the mean of the noise, of all ensemble members wondering off of daydreams over time.   This intrinsically means that the vast majority of them have a hard on for a -EPO at a range where they pretty much never have clue.  I've never seen this before like I am seeing it this specific winter thus far.    

Can ens

EPS

GEFS

It's definitely an extremely intriguing look and what I like about it is this type of pattern opens the door for some southern stream involvement and that would at least offer some potential for a bigger storm. But why I also love the Jan 10-15 period is we may see a relaxing NAO during that period, or the NAO becoming less negative and at the same time we're seeing variations within the state of the PNA. The pattern will not be void of energy and storm chances. If we want to add another layer to this is we will have the PV displaced on our side of the hemisphere. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It's definitely an extremely intriguing look and what I like about it is this type of pattern opens the door for some southern stream involvement and that would at least offer some potential for a bigger storm. But why I also love the Jan 10-15 period is we may see a relaxing NAO during that period, or the NAO becoming less negative and at the same time we're seeing variations within the state of the PNA. The pattern will not be void of energy and storm chances. If we want to add another layer to this is we will have the PV displaced on our side of the hemisphere. 

The GEFs version above looks like a bit of an undercutting/split flow...

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GEFs version above looks like a bit of an undercutting/split flow...

It does have that look to it. 

[moneypitmike]

4 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

Same as it is now, same as it ever was

[8611Blizz]

Jonbenetramsay and pp smegma are correct.  This pattern sucks. Thankfully they're here to let us know how shitty it is...

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hey. Positive vibes only I guess.

It snows in people’s hopes and dreams, rarely in reality and on the models, where it actually matters,over the last half decade or so 

Just snowed close to 9” here. Full cover and frozen solid, and 26 degrees..Speak for your own area. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It's definitely an extremely intriguing look and what I like about it is this type of pattern opens the door for some southern stream involvement and that would at least offer some potential for a bigger storm. But why I also love the Jan 10-15 period is we may see a relaxing NAO during that period, or the NAO becoming less negative and at the same time we're seeing variations within the state of the PNA. The pattern will not be void of energy and storm chances. If we want to add another layer to this is we will have the PV displaced on our side of the hemisphere. 

Bottom line, it’s a pretty nice look…despite the BS that some are spewing.  

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I know a lot of people here don’t like him, but the Pope knows his shit. Yes, his meteorology background is unconventional, but that doesn’t make the knowledge he has any less real. He may end up being wrong, but as someone who was (and still is) pounding the table for a big January, the concerns he brought up in regards to the thermals are real and valid issues. If the +EPO strengthens/pac trends worse, he absolutely could be right. Disagreeing is fine, but its important to take a scientific approach, not an emotional one. This also means using guidance as tools rather than looking for a quick dopamine hit (I’m guilty of this myself, but am actively working on changing my mindset).

You lost everybody on that first sentence. What a crock of complete crap.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Bottom line, it’s a pretty nice look…despite the BS that some are spewing.  

Yeah I don't know what else to say. I mean December was not bad overall and it could have been worse. Sure I guess we could have had more snow given how cold it was and yes some areas got more than others, but it wasn't a shutout and nobody got shutout. Were people expecting 20-30"? We get snow...people complain because it wasn't enough, we don't get snow and people complain. People want snow and there are offerings of potential and people complain. I don't even know what the expectations are anymore lol

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I don't know what else to say. I mean December was not bad overall and it could have been worse. Sure I guess we could have had more snow given how cold it was and yes some areas got more than others, but it wasn't a shutout and nobody got shutout. Were people expecting 20-30"? We get snow...people complain because it wasn't enough, we don't get snow and people complain. People want snow and there are offerings of potential and people complain. I don't even know what the expectations are anymore lol

Absolutely. Some folks completely out to lunch. They think they live in British Columbia, or the inter mountain west, or maybe central Quebec.  

It was a great autumn…perfect actually with the step down. November got increasingly colder, and December has been quite wintry, especially compared to previous years.  There’s always gonna be haves and have nots.  
 

Very Late January and February 2015 was incredible, until you got to WOR…then it wasn’t incredible for us…but it’s just how it goes. We were the have nots during that period. So I get it.